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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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I might sound like a weenie with this one, but ... Tracking models for the last decade I've noticed that a lot of the big ones come out of no where in the medium range. I've seen it countless times. Last year's January's SNE Blizzard is a perfect example. I remember during my lunch break @ work last year it was a 12z EURO run like 120 hours out I believe that all of a sudden showed a blizzard.  Very rarely will we get a storm show up 200+ hrs out and hold. PDII is one of the few that I can think of that was on the mods that far out. 

 

That being said it is likely a blip, but we'll see. Doesn't mean one of the waves won't produce though.

Superstorm Sandy. Euro had it dead on 9 days out. I remember cause I was in the Bahamas, looked at Euro and thought we were screwed

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The storm east of FL is the euro storm i believe . The GFS DID move energy back several hundred miles this run so maybe that storm can move back a hundred more and turn up like the euro did

Again the Euro and GFS really are awful when it comes to spitting energy out of the United States Southwest.... almost to a point at times all or nothing.. always comes down to timing and when you enter into a blocking pattern it becomes even more muffled as the flow traffic cop says no start no wait here...

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  April is probably the best case scenario.   Code still has to be turned over to NCEP Central Operations, and then a TON of testing needs to be done, as many NCEP systems use the GFS either for initial conditions, boundary conditions, or forcing.

 

   You can also get graphics at mageval.ncep.noaa.gov

 

 

I think someone said end of march or april, I could be wrong though.

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I'd say > 50% of the big snowstorms we get the GFS has had suppressed at some point for multiple runs...it is nothing to worry about imo

Of course not. We don't worry about things like that here even though it's a supernino trait.

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  no.   The parallel GFS is not yet being run by NCEP Central Operations, so it won't show up on that page.   It's still being run by EMC, as code handoff to NCO is not for several more weeks,  but files are being distributed so that various sites can make graphics.  It's part of the NCEP effort to lengthen the evaluation period for major upgrades.

 

 

I'm guessing the parallel's scheduled run times are highlighted in green?http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

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Of course not. We don't worry about things like that here even though it's a supernino trait.

Good point Ian, if there wasn't a very strong Nino, you'd say yea, it's the GFS being the GFS again and suppressing everything but this winter, there is actually climo support for suppression
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Too many models

Euro para is probably a good one to keep an eye on. Verification scores are up across the board at all levels for North America except at the top heights (100mb where it is not doing well at all).

 

Edited to add:  https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/IFS+cycle+41r2+scorecard+-+extended+version+part+2

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 first image   is the 0z   OP EURO     jan 15-16

 

 

post-9415-0-03453500-1452360164_thumb.jp

 

 

 

   second image is the   0z  PARALLEL   EURO  RUN very  close    but there is  a timing issue

post-9415-0-74486600-1452360167_thumb.jp

 

 

 

 thirds image in   0z  euro  para  run EPS   big  hit for  everyone   DC  to BOS  

post-9415-0-07481400-1452360171_thumb.jp

 

 

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  no.   The parallel GFS is not yet being run by NCEP Central Operations, so it won't show up on that page.   It's still being run by EMC, as code handoff to NCO is not for several more weeks,  but files are being distributed so that various sites can make graphics.  It's part of the NCEP effort to lengthen the evaluation period for major upgrades.

Thank you. Does that mean there's not a current set time of day for it to be run?

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