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2016 Atlantic Hurricane season


Jason WX

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29 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Interesting new little invest due south of Florida. 

Yes.  Its current state is pretty similar to 99L/Hermine at this same point moving through the Florida Strait.  It clearly has a closed surface low and has some convection struggling to hang on to the center in the face of fire-hose shear.  The upper pattern, like with 99L/Hermine, shows an upper low over the western gulf, a narrow ridge over the eastern gulf down into the nw Caribbean, and a nasty upper low to the northeast that is digging down over the system.  At this point, however, the models are doing nothing with it as it heads into the gulf.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Yes.  Its current state is pretty similar to 99L/Hermine at this same point moving through the Florida Strait.  It clearly has a closed surface low and has some convection struggling to hang on to the center in the face of fire-hose shear.  The upper pattern, like with 99L/Hermine, shows an upper low over the western gulf, a narrow ridge over the eastern gulf down into the nw Caribbean, and a nasty upper low to the northeast that is digging down over the system.  At this point, however, the models are doing nothing with it as it heads into the gulf.

Too bad a s/w trough will make the GoM inhospitable for any kind tropical development in 3 days+. Not that is favorable right now, but at least there's going to be an anticyclone before the trough arrives, the problem is that the current low is in the wrong side of said anticyclone right now.

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1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

3 Pitiful invests at the heart  of the season. You know  its dead when Joe Bastardi tweets about nonsense when this should be peak tropical time.

I wouldn't say 94L is pitiful... NHC has bumped up its chances of development to 70% in the next two days, and 90% in the next five days. It's a fish storm, though. 

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First September with no tropical developments 9/1-9/9 since 1995 as the anomalous dry air continues to hinder development.

0 named storms (NS) have formed in Atlantic this September. Last time 9/1-9/9 had 0 Atlantic NS formations was 1995pic.twitter.com/OreencReee

94L looks like the first potential system this month. But models recurve it out in the Central Atlantic away from the driest

conditions in the tropics.

500.gif

 

 

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First September with no tropical developments 9/1-9/9 since 1995 as the anomalous dry air continues to hinder development.

0 named storms (NS) have formed in Atlantic this September. Last time 9/1-9/9 had 0 Atlantic NS formations was 1995pic.twitter.com/OreencReee

94L looks like the first potential system to develop this month. But models recurve it out in the Central Subtropical Atlantic away from the driest

conditions in the tropics. Normal ACE through the 10th is 50 and we are now at 42.

500.gif

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, ldub23 said:

May as well rename the atlantic the sahara.

Be interesting to see if the dry air subsides in October like it did the last two years and we get the strongest hurricane if the season like Gonzalo and Joaquin. The SST's this summer set a new record east of the Bahamas. So less dry air and a storm getting into that area could allow a strong finish to the season.

 

SEP.png

 

OCT.png

 

Crn8WLtUsAAKgmE.jpg-small.jpg.fb196b99bcd61cc63f2b7f03ec19137a.jpg

 

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if the dry air subsides in October like it did the last two years and we get the strongest hurricane if the season like Gonzalo and Joaquin. The SST's this summer set a new record east of the Bahamas. So less dry air and a storm getting into that area could allow a strong finish to the season.

 

SEP.png

 

OCT.png

 

Crn8WLtUsAAKgmE.jpg-small.jpg.fb196b99bcd61cc63f2b7f03ec19137a.jpg

 

 

Larry Cosgrove says 94L could be a US threat

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You know it's bad when it's mid September and, other than 94L becoming a modest tropical storm and curving out to sea, the GFS shows nothing at all in the entire run, not even a fantasy-land recurving storm.  I think plenty of tropical geeks were expecting that, with the ending el nino, this season could really pick up in September and October.  At least for now, the necessary conditions just aren't there.  Perhaps late September into October will bring a change.

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Jeez people, it's only the second week in Sept- saying "the season is over" is patently ridiculous. The Euro has a few hopeful signs, we have well over a month before the season really ramps down, so everyone just chill. If the basin looks this bad in two weeks, then maybe it will be time to go to the ledge.

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On 9/10/2016 at 6:41 PM, ldub23 said:

Larry Cosgrove says 94L could be a US threat

Larry Cosgrove will be wrong, as usual.

57 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

90% cherry out there but it's going to fish.

With that being said, lack of powerful landfalling canes doesn't make it a dud season. We're right at peak and are about to have our ninth named storm. That's not to shabby.

We are behind in ACE. Using named storms as the metric to determine seasonal activity is meaningless since it includes short-lived, weak storms -- many of which probably would not have been classified without the technology we have today.

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On 9/6/2016 at 9:16 AM, bluewave said:

July and August was a continuation of the anomalous dry midlevel air over the Tropical Atlantic basin. Something happened right around

2011 causing an expansion north and intensification of this unusual pattern. There were some signs of early development in the 2005-2010

era but it was limited very close to the equator. 

 

1116.png

 

510.png

 

Interesting post. I plotted the 500mb relative humidity in the Main Development Region / Caribbean Sea (5-20N, 10-85W) from 1948 to 2015. For whatever reason, the trend is clear.

 

ATL_Humidity.png

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ex-93L is a tropical cyclone IMO feeding off the nearby ocean and inland lakes/swamps..could be JULIA already with sustained winds of 40 MPH being reported offshore

 

been getting better organized all day...still moderate shear but all that is doing is causing the LLC to reform near the mid level center further east and closer to the coast/water

 

I bet lots of internal discussion at the NHC..how you you name a storm or declare it a depression when its over land and may  remain inland....do you declare it or not?

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