2016 Atlantic Hurricane season

[DTWXRISK]

 

Some one above posted the last 30 days Mean  error   scores  of the various global weather models  and of course we all saw that the   GFS  is now in  4TH  place.   In looking at the 0z GFS /  GFS  ensembles   we can wee  why the GFS  has  dropped to 4th  

The   solution that the early 0z  THURS op-GFS  and GFS ensembles  are showing...  are in a word  ridiculous.  The idea that this model can still take this  weak tropical wave northward into the massive dome over North Carolina Virginia  then curve into the northeast is    well meteorologically impossible.

It's even more puzzling because the 0z  Thurs GFS keeps  99L   so weak   that if it stays this disorganized the bigger risk would be for the system to crash into Cuba and dissipate.   In other words the   operational GFS as wells the GFS  ensembles  are  offering a solutions which is mutually exclusive to each other.    

If this system stays as weak as the   operational   0z GFS / GFS    ensembles  are depicting this early Thursday morning ...   the data threat would be for the system to crash and the Eastern Cuba and dissipate.    The ONLY  way  for 99L to turn  THAT sharply to  pass  EAST of the  monster  dome at 500 mb over NC  VA   is  for  99L to  intensify fast .. the one thing the GFS  does not do 

Yet the GFS models want to keep 99L  system weak and turn it to the N.. NE  then out to sea in the face of an enormous dome   at 500 Mb  centered over the Middle Atlantic region which extends out into the Western Atlantic Ocean.  

This  absurd solution is probably a good case of how and why  the GFS is in fourth place
 

[dtk]

18 hours ago, Superstorm93 said:

Model report cards so everyone can see whats happening here...

GFS is ranked fifth behind the CMC and JMA in the tropics, ECM and UKMET dominating at three days out. Its ranked fourth at day 5. 

For one, 500hPa Z AC in the tropics is a pretty meaningless statistic.  Couple that with the fact that self-analysis based verification in the tropics has to be taken with a grain of salt, and combined with actual observation-based verification, you cannot use that plot to say that the GFS is in "fourth" or "fifth" in the tropics.  Looking at the wind field rather than the mass field is generally a better gauge, but it's more difficult to get good verification since analyses are not good "truth" and non-satellite observations are more sparse.  As an aside, most global models are still pretty atrocious when it comes to genesis.  ECMWF and GFS are generally the best deterministic models when it comes to TC tracks for systems post-genesis.

 

4 hours ago, DTWXRISK said:

Some one above posted the last 30 days Mean  error   scores  of the various global weather models  and of course we all saw that the   GFS  is now in  4TH  place.   In looking at the 0z GFS /  GFS  ensembles   we can wee  why the GFS  has  dropped to 4th  

The   solution that the early 0z  THURS op-GFS  and GFS ensembles  are showing...  are in a word  ridiculous.  The idea that this model can still take this  weak tropical wave northward into the massive dome over North Carolina Virginia  then curve into the northeast is    well meteorologically impossible.

You should probably be more careful about how you speak about models.  The model is rooted in fundamentals and knows more about "meteorological possibilities" than your qualitative assessment of its solution.  Is it wrong?  Possibly or probably, that's not the point.  

 

4 hours ago, DTWXRISK said:

This  absurd solution is probably a good case of how and why  the GFS is in fourth place
 

It is not in "fourth place" and a single deterministic solution is never a good measure of general model performance.

[dtk]

Just to be clear, my post is not necessarily to be interpreted as running to the defense of the GFS.  ECMWF still has far and away the best deterministic and ensemble weather modeling systems in the world.  The GFS is definitely in the 2nd tier with the Met Office (statistically similar for many metrics to the GFS, maybe slightly ahead), Canada (probably slightly behind the GFS and UKMO on the whole), etc.  Hopefully, the NGGPS era will usher in an acceleration of research and other change at NWS to more rapidly improve the quality of GFS-based forecasts.

[Kelathos]

If I am reading this ECMWF data correctly:  https://www.windyty.com/?2016-08-30-18,27.693,-72.246,6

It expects Gaston to break the Dome and drag 99L poleward before it gets too far into the Gulf.
By extension, it sounds like the GFS is just counting on that pull being stronger.

[tmagan]

Alex, in January, is tied with Earl for highest wind speed so far in a hurricane this year.

[jhamps10]

1 hour ago, tmagan said:

Alex, in January, is tied with Earl for highest wind speed so far in a hurricane this year.

So much for LA nina making it active....... 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

So much for LA nina making it active....... 

We've had seven named storms to date, and odds are we'll be onto number eight within the next few days. Plus the medium range is full of potential. Check out the 12z ECMWF days 5-10.

[wxmx]

Please use the https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/37-tropical-headquarters/  subforum for all your tropical needs

[wxeyeNH]

5pm Fri 8/26  looks like a tropical depression is forming just south of Bermuda.  NHC doesn't have it as an area of note or an invest.  Looking pretty good on Satellite picture.

[Rjay]

28 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

5pm Fri 8/26  looks like a tropical depression is forming just south of Bermuda.  NHC doesn't have it as an area of note or an invest.  Looking pretty good on Satellite picture.

Yea I don't see anything on the NHC site but wunderground has it.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Invest-91L?map=model

 

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

5pm Fri 8/26  looks like a tropical depression is forming just south of Bermuda.  NHC doesn't have it as an area of note or an invest.  Looking pretty good on Satellite picture. 

From the NHC

 

As of 8:00 pm EDT Fri Aug 26 2016 ...
An area of disturbed weather, associated with a broad area of low
pressure, has formed a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda.
Little motion is anticipated during the next two days, and a
slow westward heading should begin thereafter. Development of
this system, if any, is likely to be slow to occur due to this
system's proximity to dry air.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Jason WX]

 

[ldub23]

Another season peak with nothing or next to nothing

[DownS.EasternVa]

That's interesting the trend is very noticeable. What could cause it to continually decline over decades as it has. There is also evidence that the tropical areas of Africa are becoming more dry. As weather people do you think global warming could have a totally different outcome on the tropical Atlantic than previously thought? There hasn't been an increase in storms or intensity its been quite the opposite. If so do we put enough stock into the important of tropical moisture into the S.E. US. I'm a believer in global warming I think within many of our lifetimes well start to see noticeable and unreversable effects. It's thought that the 1st effects of global warming would affect the tropics is this not clear writing on the wall? 

[Jason WX]

NHC has given 30% chance of development in the next 5 days for this wave coming off of Africa. I don't like the look of the 500 mb.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

9 hours ago, Jason WX said:

NHC has given 30% chance of development in the next 5 days for this wave coming off of Africa. I don't like the look of the 500 mb.

Up to 40 now

 

3. A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday.  Conditions appear favorable for development of
this system later next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Hoth]

91L not looking half bad this morning. 

[VBsurf]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

91L not looking half bad this morning. 

Id be willing to bet there are low end tropical storm force winds in there easy. Hopefully they keep the reconnaissance plane on track for today.  Going to be funny when this gets the "Hermine" name that TWC and everyone are saying for the Cuba mess.

[ldub23]

91L might  make  it  to a cat1 before weakening.

[Drz1111]

If 91L isn't at least a TD right now, I'm a vegetarian.

[Kevin Reilly]

Wasn't that 91L the remnant Fiona?

[MJO812]

Getting busy

[NortheastPAWx]

NHC not feeling it with 91L:

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few
hours in association with an area of low pressure located about 250
miles west of Bermuda.  While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, some additional development of this system is
possible during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.  As the low approaches the coast of North Carolina
by mid-week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.  For additional information on this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.   An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[wxeyeNH]

91L is now a depression.  Advisories start 11am

[Kevin Reilly]

It is not surprising that Invest 91L will be upgraded to a Tropical Depression it is looking pretty good this morning.   This needs to be watched afterall it is just steamrolling towards the Carolina Coast.

 

[klw]

GFS has been showing a major east coast threat is some form for a number of runs now in the Sept 7-10 period.  It is the long range GFS so all the grains of salt caveats apply.  Here is the latest version from 06z and the prior from 00z:

[Kevin Reilly]

8 minutes ago, klw said:

GFS has been showing a major east coast threat is some form for a number of runs now in the Sept 7-10 period.  It is the long range GFS so all the grains of salt caveats apply.  Here is the latest version from 06z and the prior from 00z:

Yes it is there and is something to keep an eye on those runs do not look much different that than runs on August 19th showing Invest 99L doing the same thing.  What to take out of this is the Atlantic is finally active.  First up Tropical Depression #8 then invest 99L will also probably get going in the gulf.  Then all eyes turn towards this monster above it is currently off the African Coast. 

 

[Amped]

On 8/27/2016 at 7:31 AM, bluewave said:

A continuation of the Atlantic MDR 500 mb drying trend that has become more pronounced in recent years causing developing systems to

struggle with dry air. It's interesting that our strongest developments since about 2012 have come in October when the moisture

and convection tended to rebound from the JAS lows with Sandy, Gonzalo, and Joaquin.

 

MDR 500 mb drying trend over time JAS

 

 

recent rebound in October 

 

 

Impressive, undeniable persistent downward trend. No doubt this has been partially responsible for the lack of activity in recent years.

[cbmclean]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just like recent years, our strongest development of the season so far is Gaston north of all the driest air over the Atlantic MDR.

You can see how the most intense hurricane activity since 2011  has focused north of 20N with so much dry air to the south.

The amount of ACE generated over the MDR since the 2011 is much less than was the case from 1995 to 2010.

I was noting that I seemed that the dry air has been ubiquitous in discussion sof TC activity the last several years.  I was wondering if it was just selection bias on my part or perhaps simply overuse of the term by the social media community.  It appears that it has some objective existence after all.  Any idea as to what is causing the drying?

[Brick Tamland]

Looking to next week, looks like the Euro and GFS both have a storm hitting the east coast around 9/11.