Ian Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 Two pre 1950 strong Nino storms: Feb 1958 Jan 1966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I noticed something peculiar that the maps from our good MECS setups support 500 mb Canadian highs much earlier than the prior-to x days maps that pop it up at last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Made a big update to my 'DC snowstorm guide'... getting into the 10-11.5" events now. http://www.ianlivingston.com/d-c-s-double-digit-snowstorms-a-guide-to-their-development-and-the-patterns-that-produced-them/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Made a big update to my 'DC snowstorm guide'... getting into the 10-11.5" events now. http://www.ianlivingston.com/d-c-s-double-digit-snowstorms-a-guide-to-their-development-and-the-patterns-that-produced-them/ Wow - EXCELLENT Snowstorm Guide. Bookmarked for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 42 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Time to bump this baby with some good ol' JB specs! The current 10mb modeling is nearly a carbon copy of 2010 and Cohen supported that with a "like" on Twitter..but the current 500 mb map correlation I ran shows the complete opposite of what we need, so I won't share it. How unusual is it for the two layers to have such different depictions? There is a lag between the 10mb and the response at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a lag between the 10mb and the response at 500mb. So they could be on to something then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: So they could be on to something then? I am not sure. There is some debate about the effect this warming will have. Some are claiming its not a true strat warm. I won't pretend to be an expert on this process. I grasp the basic concept but I am not writing any thesis on it either. But there is a lag between the warming at the 10mb level and the response at the 500 mb level which is the one that would really impact us as the H5 drives our patterns mostly. So if we do not get any H5 response the 10mb wont do us any good at all. But it wouldnt happen at the same time. Typically the h5 response would be a week or two later. I am not sure what you were looking at so I can not say. I have not seen anything more then hints yet on guidance but sometimes if that sort of thing were to happen it comes on suddenly without a lot of warning. God knows a couple weeks before that great 2010 period people were whining about how crappy January was and that the Dec storm might be a one hit wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 This gefs map looks similar to me compared to Ian's 6 1 day prior to '96 map! Note the progression how that North Pole Low cuts off from the long wave flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On 1/6/2016 at 5:11 PM, BTRWx said: I'm sure someone here can find something better, but here's what the most recent 7-day 500mb looks like for 2016. Since this image auto-updates I'll say this here...someone help me continue to bump this! Not a bad 500mb (h5) look at all for early Feb 2017! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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