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Lake effect snow thread

dmc76

By dmc76,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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tuanis

tuanis

Posted
Posted

Marquette County's population reflects the university and the city itself. I live in far northern Marquette County in an area of the Huron's where it's less than one person per sq mile. HUGE difference.

road to my house this morning

there's no one to help you if you breakdown :D

That's what I'm getting at. Tug Hill population density is skewed by population centers too. There are certainly isolated areas of the Tug.

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Torchageddon

Torchageddon

Posted
Posted

I'll put what I wrote in the Canadian thread here too for posterity:

 

Around 3:30 pm I started getting incredibly heavy snowfall (4 inch per hour rate easy), pretty much right at the top of the proverbial scale I've seen. It started getting dark when I was in a room and then shortly after the fun began. Snowflake size wasn't even all that larger than normal too which makes the dense nature of it very impressive. Wind not that high to start. Visibility was 50 meters. And I thought yesterday around 1:28 pm the snow was heavy (former heaviest of the winter so far), this is easily in the Top 4 of the decade (became Top 2 by 3:55 pm). Then at 3:48 pm the wind started picking up big time and the flake size decreased. I wish they were monster flakes because the scene would have been insane (I got my wish :snowing: ). Then the wind picked up to the point where you could barely see anything outside at all, totally insane winter conditions. I haven't been as excited or amazed at winter weather since early 2014.

At 3:46 pm it was full blown blizzard conditions, holy crap!!!!!! I can't imagine what its like outside of town, in-town I can't see anything...

I went out into the historic conditions and experienced 60 km/h winds and saw the flake size increase, with that the visibility went down at certain moments to 10 feet and for 5-10 minutes it was 20 meters. Another weird observation was the wind kept shifting and pivoting which is odd for LES. I actually could see how dangerous sustained conditions like that really is, I would not want to be in an unfamiliar environment or caught away from shelter at all. I was just covered in snow just being out for a 50 second period. To the south all the windows are totally covered in snow. If any buses or vehicles were out on the road (no idea if schools were in session today) they would no doubt have to turn around or somehow pull off to the side of the road.

 

On radar it was one of those LES walls that starts the event that pushes through at a high speed. This one was the most intense out of the half dozen or so I've seen over the years. Roads along Lake Huron are starting to close and Hwy 4 is the newest. Right now a monster streamer is pounding a corridor from Goderich to Woodstock where the remnant of the wall resides. I'd say it was a worst case scenario travel wise.

3:30 - 4:00 pm today was one of the most intense winter weather conditions I've ever seen, right there next to January 6, 2014 and that snow wall of February 27 of the same year.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

Pretty sweet looking enhanced band contorting to match the bend of the west MI shoreline. I'm sure it'll dump a quick few inches on blackrock.

 

I did! I was watching it on radar and was getting excited to go for a snow walk and the next thing I knew....my alarm was going off at 5 a.m. Hah! I missed the entire thing. lol! I guess I was tired from shoveling and snowblowing for the place I work at all day. I ended up getting about 4 inches in about a 5 hour time period, and then 4 to 6 more today from NW wind lake effect snow. It's so hard to tell with compaction.

 

GRR is talking about a possible SW flow enhancement event tomorrow night with possible headlines needed. I sure hope so! They're so fickle. They either don't happen at all...or we get slammed!

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WestMichigan

WestMichigan

Posted
Posted

I did! I was watching it on radar and was getting excited to go for a snow walk and the next thing I knew....my alarm was going off at 5 a.m. Hah! I missed the entire thing. lol! I guess I was tired from shoveling and snowblowing for the place I work at all day. I ended up getting about 4 inches in about a 5 hour time period, and then 4 to 6 more today from NW wind lake effect snow. It's so hard to tell with compaction.

GRR is talking about a possible SW flow enhancement event tomorrow night with possible headlines needed. I sure hope so! They're so fickle. They either don't happen at all...or we get slammed!

Almost 10" here. You should do better than me today with the SW flow. GRR going with 2-5" today.
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slow poke

slow poke

Posted
Posted

From the NWS (Gaylord):

 

"ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY"

 

"(1/16)SATURDAY...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND -16C ON ALL THE MODELS SO HAVE LIGHT AMOUNTS NOW, BUT COULD
SEE MODERATE AMOUNT IF THE WINDS DON`T CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WNW
AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS BY 18Z. WITH THE TEMPERATURES WHERE THEY
ARE AND THE MOISTURE AROUND 80% IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER, THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME BIG FLAKE PRODUCTION, AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
AMOUNTS THINK THAT WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING THAT WE REMAIN IN THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS. AFTER 00Z, A
"KNUCKLE" IN THE WINDS APPEARS (A TROUGH IN THE WIND FLOW) THAT
PRODUCES NNW OR N WINDS OVER LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR, BUT THE
WIND THEN TURNS SHARPLY AND FOLLOWS M-55/M-72, AND THIS CONTINUES
THROUGH TO 12Z. THE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT THIS FEATURE,
COULD CAUSE SOME ENHANCED AMOUNTS WEST OF A TVC TO CAD LINE. THE NAM
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A 3.0"+ BULL`S EYE IN THE WESTERN PART
OF MANISTEE COUNTY, AND SOME DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG M-55. NOT
READY TO BUY IN ON THIS COMPLETELY, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO
CONSIDER IN THE UPCOMING DAYS IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS. THIS FEATURE
IS TIMED WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE FORECAST AREA AROUND
12Z/SUNDAY. 06Z AND 12Z BOTH HAVE INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A
ROUGHLY SATURATED SOUNDING ON ALL THE MODELS AS WELL. SOMETHING TO
CONSIDER."

 

Sounds like what snow melts tomorrow with the short warm up and rain "should" be replaced with fresh snow Saturday.

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josh_4184

josh_4184

Posted
Posted

From the NWS (Gaylord):

 

"ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY

THROUGH MONDAY"

 

"(1/16)SATURDAY...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE

AROUND -16C ON ALL THE MODELS SO HAVE LIGHT AMOUNTS NOW, BUT COULD

SEE MODERATE AMOUNT IF THE WINDS DON`T CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WNW

AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS BY 18Z. WITH THE TEMPERATURES WHERE THEY

ARE AND THE MOISTURE AROUND 80% IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER, THE

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME BIG FLAKE PRODUCTION, AND POSSIBLE HEAVY

AMOUNTS THINK THAT WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING THAT WE REMAIN IN THE

LIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORIES, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS. AFTER 00Z, A

"KNUCKLE" IN THE WINDS APPEARS (A TROUGH IN THE WIND FLOW) THAT

PRODUCES NNW OR N WINDS OVER LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR, BUT THE

WIND THEN TURNS SHARPLY AND FOLLOWS M-55/M-72, AND THIS CONTINUES

THROUGH TO 12Z. THE MODELS ARE ALL SUGGESTING THAT THIS FEATURE,

COULD CAUSE SOME ENHANCED AMOUNTS WEST OF A TVC TO CAD LINE. THE NAM

IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A 3.0"+ BULL`S EYE IN THE WESTERN PART

OF MANISTEE COUNTY, AND SOME DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG M-55. NOT

READY TO BUY IN ON THIS COMPLETELY, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO

CONSIDER IN THE UPCOMING DAYS IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS. THIS FEATURE

IS TIMED WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT IS SUPPOSED TO ROTATE

THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE FORECAST AREA AROUND

12Z/SUNDAY. 06Z AND 12Z BOTH HAVE INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND A

ROUGHLY SATURATED SOUNDING ON ALL THE MODELS AS WELL. SOMETHING TO

CONSIDER."

 

Sounds like what snow melts tomorrow with the short warm up and rain "should" be replaced with fresh snow Saturday.

Not expecting much of a warm up at my locale or points northward maybe a brief mixing at best but luckily there isn't much moisture to work with up this way. LES looks like it could be pretty good depending on the wind direction (as always), but a sustained NW or WNW wind would make a lot of Sledders happy in Northern lower. A lot of times its not even the wind or suitable 850 temps its the available moisture  and inversion, it seems like we can never get all the parameters perfect for a strong thumping longer then a couple hours. 

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josh_4184

josh_4184

Posted
Posted

Another solid AFD by APX

 

 

 

IT WON`T TAKE LONG FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE PROCESSES TO RAMP UP ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER AS THE NEXT BATCH OF ARCTIC
AIR PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES (HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY BACK DOWN IN THE
LOW-MID TEENS). NOT EXPECTING TOO ROBUST OF SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES OVERHEAD...BUT NONE THE
LESS...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED
LOCATIONS. LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS ESPECIALLY INTRIGUING
AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS (~7-10 KFT) AND LOW LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE
GENERATED BY AN INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH AND LAKE AGGREGATE WARMING
(KEEPING THE COLDEST AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF MICHIGAN)...COULD
PRODUCE SOME RATHER HEFTY SNOWFALL IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF NORTHWEST
LOWER. WILL LIKELY END UP BECOMING A MUCH MORE MESOSCALE EVENT...BUT
SURE IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOVING FORWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT-SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL BEEF UP WORDING FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE GRIDS AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016

THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BETWEEN A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND/QUEBEC AND A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL GENERATE A
PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST WIND REGIME FUNNELING IN 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN -15 AND -20C. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE STILL AROUND 4 TO 5C WILL CREATE PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY BY THEMSELVES...NOT TO MENTION A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ALSO TRAVERSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE SAME TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHTS REACHING 8KFT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
AND DECREASING TO AROUND 4 TO 5KFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. THIS SAID...WE CAN EXPECT SOME PRETTY GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. ONLY HAVE
A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS...BUT AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THIS TIMEFRAME WE WILL BE INCREASING
AMOUNTS. THIS NORTHWEST WIND REGIME WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT
SNOWS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO THE EAST ALONG WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...ANY LAKE INDUCED SNOW
SHOWERS WE SEE WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND LOW 10S
CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
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wishforsnow

wishforsnow

Posted
Posted

We got nailed here in the Houghton-Hancock area. I was gone all day at my folks house in Twin Lakes. It didn't hardly snowed out there all day even the sun tried to come out a few times. The winds switched to the WSW. I got home and by estimates there was two feet of snow in the driveway and that was at 9 pm. As I type it is snowing heavy even with a North wind direction.

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