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Lake effect snow thread


dmc76

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Just an awesome forecast discussion. Reminds me of the December 2001 event.

 

THE PATTERN BECOMES FAR MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG
ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA...WITH A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE ALLOWING AN IMPRESSIVE
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THE MEAN PATTERN FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A DEEP
TROUGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY...WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
AMPLITUDE CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
PAST CLIMATOLOGY RESEARCH AND EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN CAN
BE VERY ACTIVE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR REGION...AND THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS PATTERN AS WELL.


DEEP COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A
STRONG AND DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE NUMEROUS MID LEVEL
WAVES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THESE WAVES
WILL ALSO BRING CHANGES TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION...
SUGGESTING MIGRATING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OBVIOUSLY AT THIS
TIME RANGE THE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING...
SIGNIFICANT...HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

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I like all our chances for some decent LES, yes the 850 may be actually be a little too cold ideally but a key difference from this  occurrence this time compared to the last two years is the lakes are quite a bit warmer. APX was surprisingly quiet about the potential for snow but then again 3-5" a day for several days is nothing new for the Northern LES belts. Plus it looks pretty active with clippers pulling through as well.

 

This setup is looking really good for Western New York.

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Wouldn't be surprised if Buffalo and London both get hit big. Orientation will switch late Sunday night. Both traditional snow belts are gonna get pounded.

Sent from my XT1563 using Tapatalk

 

I suspect London (and Cleveland/NE Ohio) will be left out of the good stuff.   We need WNW or NW winds and Buffalo is golden with SW winds.   The current indications are a prolonged period of predominately SW winds.  Would be the 3rd year in a row for them.   The last couple years we have been getting the NWerlys too late in the season to do any good.  Starting to get a bit irritating......

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APX is finally talking about the potential LES 

 

 

 

A WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
SATURDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY DROP ENOUGH TO SWITCH
THINGS OVER TO SNOW. AFTER THAT...THE STORY WILL BE THE ACCUMULATING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO REALLY KICK INTO GEAR SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS OFF AND THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE
INCOMING ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES OVER. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN LARGER
AMOUNTS OF SNOW THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...BUT THE COLD AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THIS LOW OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL HAVE
SOME EFFECT ON THE LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER...AS IT INDUCES A NW FLOW
THAT WILL BACK TO WRLY AS THIS SECOND LOW LIFTS THROUGH ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC. WRLY FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH A SHIFT TO
SW BY MIDWEEK. WITH A PROLONGED STRETCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AREAS IN THE FAVORED
SNOW BELTS COULD SEE SOME IMPRESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS BY MIDWEEK. MODEL
SOUNDINGS OVER LAKE MI ARE SHOWING RATHER IMPRESSIVE LAKE INDUCED
CAPE...IN THE 600 - 1000+ J/KG RANGE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AOA
700MB...AND SOMETIMES MUCH ABOVE...FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. TIME HEIGHT PLOTS IN THAT SUN - TUES PERIOD AT MANY SPOTS
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE ALSO SHOWING NICE ALIGNMENT OF
OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ...SO EXPECTING GOOD DENDRITIC PRODUCTION WHICH
WILL HELP INCREASE THE ACCUMULATIONS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY GIVEN THE AIRMASS MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH FRI AND SAT TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT MIXY PRECIP...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE
TEENS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.
 
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Classic setup on the 12z operational Euro and EPS next week for prolonged WSW flow LES off Erie and Ontario with piece of PV meandering across Quebec. UP and lower MI will obviously be affected as well, only limited by shorter fetch. Areas downwind of Huron should do really well too.

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APX is finally talking about the potential LES 

 

Awesome discussion!

 

Kbuf issued a HWO-

 

THE PATTERN BECOMES FAR MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG

ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTH

AMERICA...WITH A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE ALLOWING AN IMPRESSIVE

LONGWAVE TROUGH TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH

AMERICA. THE MEAN PATTERN FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A DEEP

TROUGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY...WITH NUMEROUS HIGH

AMPLITUDE CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.

PAST CLIMATOLOGY RESEARCH AND EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN CAN

BE VERY ACTIVE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR REGION...AND THIS

APPEARS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS PATTERN AS WELL.

DEEP COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A

STRONG AND DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE NUMEROUS MID LEVEL

WAVES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THESE WAVES

WILL ALSO BRING CHANGES TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION...

SUGGESTING MIGRATING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OBVIOUSLY AT THIS

TIME RANGE THE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LARGE SCALE

PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING...

SIGNIFICANT...HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND

ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

 

And from Forecast discussion:

 

AFTER THAT...THINGS LOOK TO GET CONSIDERABLY MORE INTERESTING

EARLY ON NEXT WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE FORCES

DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE/DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...THE CORE OF WHICH WILL SLOWLY

MEANDER ITS WAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS

PATTERN WILL DIRECT MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH 850

MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BETWEEN -15C AND -20C EARLY ON IN THE

WEEK...AND POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BEYOND THE END OF THE

PERIOD. WITH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO REMAINING WIDE OPEN...IT

SHOULD GO WITHOUT SAYING THAT ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO A GREATLY

HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF

BOTH LAKES.

IN CONCERT WITH NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN

TROUGH AND PROVIDING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE...THE

DEPTH AND EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A

STRONG/DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE RESULTING LAKE BANDS

MIGRATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODULATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW

BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVES. WHILE THE EXACT

FORECAST DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE

POINT...THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN DEFINITELY SUGGESTS THE

POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING... SIGNIFICANT...AND HIGH IMPACT LAKE

EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH

WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. STAY TUNED!

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Low res models always have a tough time with Lake effect, we need to get into High res model range to get a better idea.

 

Yup.

 

IMO... anything blue more than 5 days out is BIG TIME LES.

 

There are 2+ Inch QPF spots on the map that show 12 inches of snow. That's 3 feet of snow in the real world. Or more.

 

Of course I'm adding up everything for areas north of the bridge.

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