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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

Wow

By Wow,
in Southeastern States

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Per the NWS....El Nino is currently tied with 97-98 as the strongest on record

 

Current El Niño ties 1997-98, NOAA Reports

New, preliminary number released today shows current El Niño is tied with 1997-98 El Niño as the strongest on record (at 2.3°C above normal) when based on the 3-month mean sea surface temperature anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region. NOAA updated its Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) value for Oct. – Dec., which is one method to identify El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the tropical Pacific. The next ENSO forecast will be issued January 14.

 

post-279-0-48385000-1451941875_thumb.png

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

I don't have the tools at my disposal right now and won't until late tonight.

 

Referring to Buckey1 immediately above, can anyone shed light on what the major indices were like Jan & Feb of 1998?  (AO, NAO, EPO, PNA etc). I'd like to look and see how they correlate with what we're looking at for the foreseeable future (15 days out or so).

 

The composite map I generated was quite warm for those 8 weeks.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

nothing but bad news today

 

LOL...well good thing it's Jan 4th and not Feb 4th...it may take a few weeks to get things going it seems.  Atleast you guys have absolutely killed it the past few winters, what are you guys running, like 130% of climo since '10?  Your 30 year snow average could look like RDU's, see my avatar.

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

Per the NWS....El Nino is currently tied with 97-98 as the strongest on record

 

Current El Niño ties 1997-98, NOAA Reports

New, preliminary number released today shows current El Niño is tied with 1997-98 El Niño as the strongest on record (at 2.3°C above normal) when based on the 3-month mean sea surface temperature anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region. NOAA updated its Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) value for Oct. – Dec., which is one method to identify El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the tropical Pacific. The next ENSO forecast will be issued January 14.

 

attachicon.gifNino15.png

If we're ranking with 1997 how was the winter that year.  I hope snowy from mid Jan. on.  :snowing:

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
Posted

If we're ranking with 1997 how was the winter that year.  I hope snowy from mid Jan. on.  :snowing:

That was winter '97 - '98 and Jan/Feb were warm.

 

If anyone can answer my post at #92 above, it might shed some light, however dim, on a possible correlation, if any.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

FXUS21 KWNC 042017

PMDTHR

US HAZARDS OUTLOOK

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

300 PM EST JANUARY 04 2016

SYNOPSIS: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST IS FORECAST TO ERODE AS MULTIPLE

LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE FIRST LOW-PRESSUSRE

SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SECOND LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM

IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THEN MERGE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM OVER

THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF

THE CONTIGUOUS 48 STATES. WESTERN ALASKA IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AN ACTIVE

PATTERN.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST, SAT-SUN, JAN

9-JAN 10.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE NORTHEAST,

THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, SUN-MON, JAN 10-JAN 11.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES, SAT-SUN, JAN

9-JAN 10.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,

THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE

SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE OHIO VALLEY, THU-FRI, JAN 7-JAN 8.

FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THU-FRI, JAN

7-JAN 8.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THE

MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE NORTHERN

PLAINS, SAT-MON, JAN 9-JAN 11.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA, FRI, JAN 8.

SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL PLAINS, THE CENTRAL

ROCKIES, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE NORTHERN

PLAINS, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE

SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE MID-ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN

APPALACHIANS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,

THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHWEST, TUE-SAT, JAN 12-JAN 16.

MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN

PLAINS, AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TUE-WED, JAN 12-JAN 13.

HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN

PLAINS, TUE, JAN 12.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,

CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, PUERTO RICO, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND

THE SOUTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 07 - MONDAY JANUARY 11: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE

EAST IS FORECAST TO ERODE AS MULTIPLE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE

LOWER 48 STATES. THE FIRST LOW-PRESSUSRE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE

GREAT LAKES. A SECOND LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE

SOUTHWEST THEN MERGE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST SYSTEM

IS FORECAST TO BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL IS LIKELY

OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO

BRING POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWS (GREATER THAN 4 INCHES) TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST

AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH HEAVY RAINS NEARER THE COAST.

COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO FUNNEL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IN THE WAKE OF

THOSE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (12-20 DEG F BELOW

NORMAL) ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT

PLAINS.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL IS LIKELY SUNDAY TO MONDAY FROM NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO

THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND

ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO

TRAVERSE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IS LIKELY TO EXACERBATE THIS FLOODING.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE BERING SEA IS LIKELY TO BRING WINDS AND RAIN TO

SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SOME MODELS HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS OVER

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS, WITH A HAZARD DEPICTED OVER

AREAS WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOWER AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS.

FOR TUESDAY JANUARY 12 - MONDAY JANUARY 18: DURING WEEK-2, THE ARCTIC

OSCILLATION IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGLY NEGATIVE, WHICH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES (20 PERCENT CHANCE OF DROPPING BELOW THE 15TH PERCENTILE) EXTENDS

FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE AREAS

WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY

RESTRICTED TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.

SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING CENTRAL AND

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY JAN 12. TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL

SOLUTIONS INCREASE THE UNCERTAINTY AND PRECLUDE THE DEPICTION OF A HAZARD AT

THIS TIME.

THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF

SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2 TO D4), FROM 12.65 PERCENT TO 11.56 PERCENT.

FORECASTER: MATTHEW ROSENCRANS

$$

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

When we got snow 2 years ago, I think that was snow jam in ATL and the debacle in BHM as well, we didn't see that threat show up until what?  3-4 days before it happened?  That wave didn't show up on the Arctic front till real close, If I remember correctly.  DOC had it first, GFS wonky at first.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

When we got snow 2 years ago, I think that was snow jam in ATL and the debacle in BHM as well, we didn't see that threat show up until what?  3-4 days before it happened?  That wave didn't show up on the Arctic front till real close, If I remember correctly.  DOC had it first, GFS wonky at first.

 

It was very late from what I remember...it was showing up prior to 3-4 days but appeared to be very suppressed and squashed then it started becoming more robust.  The event in February I think was showing up well in advance, the only question with that one was if the wave the day before was going to be snowy or not, it missed by about 1-2 degrees from being a relatively big snow.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

It was very late from what I remember...it was showing up prior to 3-4 days but appeared to be very suppressed and squashed then it started becoming more robust.  The event in February I think was showing up well in advance, the only question with that one was if the wave the day before was going to be snowy or not, it missed by about 1-2 degrees from being a relatively big snow.

gotcha...thanks!  I feel like we are in that same type of setup (pattern prob different) but supression city really don't work that well most of the time around here. I wouldn't sleep on the weekend storm and the one for next week.

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

It was very late from what I remember...it was showing up prior to 3-4 days but appeared to be very suppressed and squashed then it started becoming more robust. The event in February I think was showing up well in advance, the only question with that one was if the wave the day before was going to be snowy or not, it missed by about 1-2 degrees from being a relatively big snow.

Yeah that February 2013 storm was reeled in from 6 days out. Euro had it first and then GFS finally came around and picked up the NW trend. Temps were the concern with that one, and a lot of people changed over to sleet/freezing rain/rain. Good memories or tracking that one.

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