Wow Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Instead of having one general purpose winter discussion thread, let's split up discussions between short and long range talk. This thread will be for overall pattern discussions & possible storm events. We'll have another thread for specific storms in the shorter range (<5 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 6z GFS very similar to the 0z Euro at 240 with the NP block, -NAO ridge, and STJ wave crashing in on the west coast. GFS initially tries to get the wave to wrap up a low but weakens it and pulls the cold out quickly beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Still looks reasonable for an event in the day 9+ range, IMO. Below are some nino winter storms v/s what EPS is spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 latest hrrr looks really good for some snow showers over ceentral/northern nc this afternoon. rah put flurries in their forecast and if you get lucky you could probably get a nice quick snow shower. seeing any snow fall will be a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Indexes looking pretty good this morning. The operational runs of the GFS break down the PNA in the LR, which, if correct, is not good, as others have noted. Haven't checked the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Which Model handles the teleconnections better? There are pretty big differences in the models with the GFS looking a lot better than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 WxSouth 20 mins · There's no doubt now the big time warming taking place in the Arctic means the Polar Vortex gets broken up, and pieces will get shoved well south soon. One piece into eastern Siberia, another in northern Europe/Kazakhstan, and another into United States east of Rockies. To what degree will the coldest air get pushed southbound is still questionable, but it will turn very cold most of the central, eastern US soon..some areas of Midwest to Ohio Valley/Lakes region extremely fr...igid. The operational run of European is going with a hardcore Arctic Outbreak in 7 to 10 days (and reloads the pattern, thanks to extreme blocking up north). The index values and look of the anomalies are all going to some extreme values, globally, and I'm not surprised the entire pattern has flipped,as it was pretty well forecast from a distance. The first storm before the cold air will create a "close call" and some snow potential MidSouth, Apps region as early as this weekend. Final storm track on that is still unknown exactly. Then I'll watch the Baja an the Gulf Coast just afterwards for more southern stream moisture ....and there's no shortage of energy undercutting all this cold air, so it will surely get interesting once we get locked into the colder pattern. Much more at my site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Seems like everything is always 10 days away.. Even 10 days ago we were talking about a storm for the New Year..Didn't happen. NWS is sure not impressed for anything this coming weekend as they have highs near 60 for Saturday and that's for a high elevation Tennessee border county here in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Which Model handles the teleconnections better? There are pretty big differences in the models with the GFS looking a lot better than the Euro. Tele's from 00z Euro Ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Indexes looking pretty good this morning. The operational runs of the GFS break down the PNA in the LR, which, if correct, is not good, as others have noted. Haven't checked the ensembles. ao.sprd2.jpg NCPE_phase_21m_small (1).jpg The PNA scare me with that drop towards (but not to) neutral. BUT, didn't somebody mention that we actually wanted a weaker positive PNA? That combined with a negative NAO was a good setup for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It is a little concerning that only two of the euro ensemble members show snow here through the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Don't get tied up with the models and their snow amounts yet. They are still struggling to get through this pattern transition. Also with so many individual systems to work with one changed track will have a major impact on the cold/heat and also snow. Once models nail this transition which I think will be very soon maybe by Wednesday based on them slowly trending back to what they showed a week ago. I've noticed that models often hit the pattern a week out then lose it only to bring it back just like it was shown a week ago which for this case would be a pretty awesome pattern. I'm not looking at a system until it's 3-5 days out. Too much going on to expect any model to nail a storm 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The PNA scare me with that drop towards (but not to) neutral. BUT, didn't somebody mention that we actually wanted a weaker positive PNA? That combined with a negative NAO was a good setup for the SE. The PNA is dynamic. Placement and amplitude are both key. Changes in either variable can greatly affect the placement of the core of the cold as well as the track of any shortwaves. A positive PNA is generally a good thing, but if it's centered too far east, we're cold and dry. Too far west, and we risk the storm track over us or up the Apps. Then, you throw in a -NAO, and it also alters the flow. Overall, as you said, a +PNA and -NAO are good for us. Now, we should feel good about the blocking for a while. The NAO goes negative but not severely so. The AO is negative, meaning cold can at least be available. But what we do NOT want to see is the EPO ridge roll over. That will allow the PNA to break and we get a storm track over us or to the north of us. Some models are showing this. We need the ridging out west to hold. The EURO shows it in place from 168 on. I haven't seen the ensembles, so I don't know if they break it down. I will say, that we're starting to see a decent pattern show up within 10 days. Maybe we don't get a storm, but the positive thing is, a cold pattern is likely now. How long will it last? It's impossible to say. The guidance suggests it could break down after D10 sometime, but the guidance suggests a lot of things after D10. The bottom line is, look forward to the cold pattern. Beyond D10, we really have no idea what the pattern is going to look like, just going by the guidance, because it has been and is going to flip flop. Analogs and seasonals may serve us the best here, beyond D10...but who really knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Lets see which model is doing better...both had some right ideas, the Euro is a little strung out with the trough and the GEFS is to weak with the trough. The GEFS definitely had the right idea on the blocking, the EPS has been trying to weaken it in the 10-15 and it's verified stronger as we moved in. Looks like EPS is handling the pac better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The PNA scare me with that drop towards (but not to) neutral. BUT, didn't somebody mention that we actually wanted a weaker positive PNA? That combined with a negative NAO was a good setup for the SE. I definitely don't see anything scary with regards to the PNA, I see an active PAC knocking it down and I see blocking trying to get going. The NE crew is obviously worried about suppression with a stout -AO/-NAO which is common in strong nino's and obviously we want suppression. We aren't going to get a suppressed storm track from mid-Jan to March but we should see a period or two that would benefit us and the MA/NE will get theirs, they always do. If we get a neutral PNA with no blocking it will suck for everyone, LOL. Only thing that slightly worries me is that it's still 9+ days away, big unknowns are will we see -EPO for extended periods and when/if will -NAO get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It is a little concerning that only two of the euro ensemble members show snow here through the end of its run. This doesn't surprise me. Most of the time if we (southeast) get an arctic push of cold air into our region it pretty much squashes any storms that try to get going. It's usually either warm and wet or cold and dry down here in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This doesn't surprise me. Most of the time if we (southeast) get an arctic push of cold air into our region it pretty much squashes any storms that try to get going. It's usually either warm and wet or cold and dry down here in the winter. I counted like 15 for our area (30%), just glancing at it. This is day 10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Instead of having one general purpose winter discussion thread, let's split up discussions between short and long range talk. This thread will be for overall pattern discussions & possible storm events. We'll have another thread for specific storms in the shorter range (<5 days). I thought that was what we were doing? We always open a new thread as an event approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 12z GFS has what looks to be an OV runner Miller Bish next week with the PV dropping down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 12z GFS has what looks to be an OV runner Miller Bish next week with the PV dropping down. That's the weekend system, drops a nice snow in Arkansas and west tenn Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 12z GFS has what looks to be an OV runner Miller Bish next week with the PV dropping down. I'm only out to 126, but it looks like a race to see if we can get cold in before the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 That's the weekend system, drops a nice snow in Arkansas and west tenn Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It does show some CAD but not enough to help. I will say it's nice to see that big high near Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Gonna hard to find a storm with type of PV press Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Funny the 12z run was a good two days faster blasting the front through. I like the slower solution that were showing over the weekend allowing for possible overrunning next week. This run crushes that thought Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Are people still tracking the Jan 11th storm, I thought we moved on to the 15th+? The inland signal has been pretty strong since it showed up. I actually like the track modeled at 156hrs on the 12z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Are people still tracking the Jan 11th storm, I thought we moved on to the 15th+? The inland signal has been pretty strong since it showed up. I actually like the track modeled at 156hrs on the 12z GFS... It's not bad . Need a fast PV press or the energy to slow down to help keep it further south Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This is a really good GFS run IMO. Tall W Canada ridge which was how the Euro trended last night (more amplified). Cold vortex drops down into SE Canada and cuts off, slowing down the Atlantic side flow. Thereafter, STJ waves approach the W Coast and are suppressed. Big cold vortex + strong nino is a good formula, but it will take some time and patience to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This is a really good GFS run IMO. Tall W Canada ridge which was how the Euro trended last night (more amplified). Cold vortex drops down into SE Canada and cuts off, slowing down the Atlantic side flow. Thereafter, STJ waves approach the W Coast and are suppressed. Big cold vortex + strong nino is a good formula, but it will take some time and patience to get there. I agree. (looking at the GFS verbatim) No big storm threats but I could see somebody scoring with a clipper(...of course light event). With that kind of configuration the odds do get higher for something to drop further south. Models usually don't pick up on these details until a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Are people still tracking the Jan 11th storm, I thought we moved on to the 15th+? The inland signal has been pretty strong since it showed up. I actually like the track modeled at 156hrs on the 12z GFS...It's always the next one ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 It's always the next one ! Well we haven't had one to even consider yet, so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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