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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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James is the low feeling the affects of the high pressure thus shunting it more south on the 0z run? I really feel like it's underdone the cad from the get go. That would be an amazing track for a bunch of people. I'm curious what the qpf output is on the euro.

 

Looks like the low moves ESE from N/C AL to S SC.  Kind of a weird track.  I guess it's shunting around the CAD, but still.

 

Looks like around 1.5" QPF in your area, 1.2" for GSO, and 2.5" for DCA...  The NC mountains get hammered.

 

However, it has moved east in that precip sharply cuts off northwest of DC, which is interesting.  Not as good of a run for interior MD and VA (say, Winchester).

 

The EPS will be interesting.  We'll see if it shifts south at all.

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Correct, although to the east of that gradient it is a major ice storm.  I guess WeatherBell actually fixed their snow algorithms this year.  They don't seem to be showing ZR on the clown maps, from what I can tell.

I believe the precipitation algorithm was significantly improved with the upgrade to the Euro last year. Better identifies areas of freezing rain, ice pellets.

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I believe the precipitation algorithm was significantly improved with the upgrade to the Euro last year. Better identifies areas of freezing rain, ice pellets.

 

Good to hear.

 

DT already shared this, so I guess this is okay to post.  DT is also honking the February 1983 analog.

 

post-9415-0-45506800-1453099566.jpg

 

For comparison purposes, here was the 12z Euro:

 

12419094_971795596201032_148502492786210

 

So, yeah, quite a shift. :lol:

 

Pittsburgh went from 36" to 2" in one run!!!  :yikes:

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