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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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The Euro control run does something that has to be pretty rare. It transfers to off the SC coast then boomerangs back into NC at almost at hurricane strength, pressure wise. 

That will not get it done. Unless a snow hurricane. That would be fun. 

 

I do wonder about the temps but if we can get that HP to 1035+, that would make a good CAD. 

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That looks interesting, but it's pretty consistantly showing the low in KY, that's usually not a good thing, but CAD can make magic happen. And I don't see the high on the map making the wedge?

 

Well... it's holding on for dear life. Don't buy this setup without a good HP.

 

gfs_T2m_seus_25.png

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That looks interesting, but it's pretty consistantly showing the low in KY, that's usually not a good thing, but CAD can make magic happen. And I don't see the high on the map making the wedge?

It's the GFS it's way north of its own ensembles , the euro and the eps

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That run is plain ugly for me, but had a question for the board...

 

At this range with the 12z euro showing an OTS off the Ga. coast and this GFS supposed mtns and ma  snowmaker residing in Kentucky, would a blended forecast be in order?  

 

Yeah, I know its nearly 150hrs away. 

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Gap disco for late next week. They have already posted a frozen mix on Friday for the hickory area.

Very progressive weather pattern has the Wednesday shortwave quickly

followed by another...potentially more significant and deeper wave

by Friday. This system may have impacts from Friday morning through

Saturday with a range of rain...rain-snow mix...and snow

possible...with rain more likely in lower elevations. Ec and GFS

show some dramatic differences...however...with the ec having a much

further south track for the storm than the GFS...which keeps the County Warning Area

on the north side of the system...sparing it from the heaviest

precipitation with the cold frontal passage seen in the GFS. Depending on the

ultimate track of this system...liquid equivalent precipitation could vary

from a tenth of an inch to 2 inches. Forecast will represent a

blend of these possibilities.

Following the major Friday-Saturday system...subsequent forecast has

a less amplified upper-air pattern with generally benign weather.

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Gap disco for late next week. They have already posted a frozen mix on Friday for the hickory area.

Very progressive weather pattern has the Wednesday shortwave quickly

followed by another...potentially more significant and deeper wave

by Friday. This system may have impacts from Friday morning through

Saturday with a range of rain...rain-snow mix...and snow

possible...with rain more likely in lower elevations. Ec and GFS

show some dramatic differences...however...with the ec having a much

further south track for the storm than the GFS...which keeps the County Warning Area

on the north side of the system...sparing it from the heaviest

precipitation with the cold frontal passage seen in the GFS. Depending on the

ultimate track of this system...liquid equivalent precipitation could vary

from a tenth of an inch to 2 inches. Forecast will represent a

blend of these possibilities.

Following the major Friday-Saturday system...subsequent forecast has

a less amplified upper-air pattern with generally benign weather.

One thing I noticed on today's ensembles were a lack of a true high pressure located to the north, even though there are higher heights. I think that's why they are still just a tad too warm right now. In this setup I think we're going to need some semblance of a high pressure, at least a weak one in New York providing some CAD for it to work out. Just something I'm going to look for in future runs. All eggs in this basket. I know. Setting myself up....

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