Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 He wouldn't see it no matter what until at least 48 hours out anyway. You don't think it's a little bit weird to continuously criticize somebody for being accurate? Usually, people get criticized for mostly being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Literal hot hand or figuratively? Haha. What makes you say that? jw, I haven't looked at performance lately between models.These storms that are cutting into the Ohio Valley, the GFS suite has been quicker to pick up on it, that's all. Euro suite is colder and farther south with the height pattern for next week compared to the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yeah sometimes I hate how he is so conservative and doesn't mention things until almost go time, but it is for good reason... No need to even mention anything or get amped about it until 2-3 days out. Does the 20th storm still look like a threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not impressed any more (not that I was ever very excited in the first place). Cold, but not brutal, snow chances look slim to me now. Ensemble means have backed way off, not even any Op fantasy storm any more.Yeah I feel exactly the same. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The parallel Euro still keeps hinting at snow January 17th, has a light dusting across a good portion of the state with strong ensemble support, I counted 19 or 20 for RDU with at least a dusting of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 These storms that are cutting into the Ohio Valley, the GFS suite has been quicker to pick up on it, that's all. Euro suite is colder and farther south with the height pattern for next week compared to the GFS right now.Yeah I was just looking at that...models are worlds apart wrt that. Para Euro HP is impressive. Move that in 12 hours faster and we are in business assuming the coupling of lows stay in the SE in future ensemble runs for 12z 1/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 You don't think it's a little bit weird to continuously criticize somebody for being accurate? Usually, people get criticized for mostly being wrong. There's a difference in saying we don't know yet like RAH did and saying you don't see anything at all like Fishel said. One is saying there is a chance, and the other is saying there isn't. And even if things looked great for a storm, Fishel still wouldn't say there was a chance until at least 48 hours out no matter what it looked like. I guess that is safe and smart, but anyone could do that, whether you are a met or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 There's a difference in saying we don't know yet like RAH did and saying you don't see anything at all like Fishel said. One is saying there is a chance, and the other is saying there isn't. And even if things looked great for a storm, Fishel still wouldn't say there was a chance until at least 48 hours out no matter what it looked like. I guess that is safe and smart, but anyone could do that, whether you are a met or not. I would imagine Fischel doesn't see anything at all. Why should he lie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 WxSouth added a good post on Facebook about the current situation. https://m.facebook.com/notes/wxsouth/about-the-winter-storm-chances/1201458629884190?notif_t=notify_me_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I would imagine Fischel doesn't see anything at all. Why should he lie? Just noting the difference between what he said and what RAH said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Since there isn't much to talk about in regards to models right now I thought I would post a brief summary of how I see late January into February evolving. 1. Indices are forecasted to take a quick rise but models have backed off some on that. I expect they were too fast with that occurring. However I do forsee less favorable blocking the last week of January. This should be transient and February will be much different. 2. As we enter February my top two analog years indicate a neutral PNA with blocking near Greenland and a broad trough across the SE and out into the Atlantic. I expect our coldest temperatures and best snow chances in February. Here are two maps below illustrating the overall pattern I think we will see. Overall I expect to see the coldest and snowiest weather in February similar to recent years. Anomalies of -4 to -6 across the SE with some bitterly cold Arctic outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Just noting the difference between what he said and what RAH said. But you're not just noting a difference. And saying you don't see any snow on the horizon is not the same as saying there is no chance of snow. Furthermore, you're comparing a information developed for a TV audience to technical weather discussion for a different target audience. Just because a bunch of weenies on a weather forum look for Lysol in a turd storm, doesn't mean a TV met should go on air with that approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Guess we just see the two differently in what they said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Since there isn't much to talk about in regards to models right now I thought I would post a brief summary of how I see late January into February evolving. 1. Indices are forecasted to take a quick rise but models have backed off some on that. I expect they were too fast with that occurring. However I do forsee less favorable blocking the last week of January. This should be transient and February will be much different. 2. As we enter February my top two analog years indicate a neutral PNA with blocking near Greenland and a broad trough across the SE and out into the Atlantic. I expect our coldest temperatures and best snow chances in February. Here are two maps below illustrating the overall pattern I think we will see. image.png image.png Overall I expect to see the coldest and snowiest weather in February similar to recent years. Anomalies of -4 to -6 across the SE with some bitterly cold Arctic outbreaks. I support this post! Seriously, that looks good. Regardless of my post to Brick, I think there is a shot at something before Jan is done. But even with that, I am surprised at how little we've really been in the conversation for anything. I hope you're right about Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thekidcurtis Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 There's a difference in saying we don't know yet like RAH did and saying you don't see anything at all like Fishel said. One is saying there is a chance, and the other is saying there isn't. And even if things looked great for a storm, Fishel still wouldn't say there was a chance until at least 48 hours out no matter what it looked like. I guess that is safe and smart, but anyone could do that, whether you are a met or not. Not a Brick bash, but kinda irked me. I'll be first to admit I'm a Fishel fan as much as the next guy, always have been. In fact, I have a pretty stellar personal story involving him but I'll save that for another day. He's a great meteorologist (on and off television) and local personality for the area. Hell, he's a weenie just like the rest of us. But at the same time, he's a realist. Fishel isn't a sellout that posts 10day clown maps for clickbait. He doesn't hook you with, "snow chances at 11" to up his views. His viewers watch him like they should watch any weatherman, accuracy. He tells it like he sees it. He uses the same maps and models that you see on this board but uses his meteorological expertise of 37yrs (35yrs designated to WRAL). He admits when he's wrong but tells you his opinion JUST like every person on this board. All this is to say, "anyone could do that, met or not" is a bit insulting. To fight his inner-weenie'ingness, to help increase viewers, and to go w/ the popular vote, I think it'd be hard for Fish to say he doesn't see it but keeps it professional and goes w/ the right answer - he just doesn't see it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I support this post! Seriously, that looks good. Regardless of my post to Brick, I think there is a shot at something before Jan is done. But even with that, I am surprised at how little we've really been in the conversation for anything. I hope you're right about Feb. I'm watching the 17th closely. The parallel Euro has shown light snow several runs now over the past few days, not all back to back runs but at least 2 or 3 I've looked at showed accumulating snow for a good portion of NC. Granted it is light snow but a few inches would be nice. The ensembles support this also, I'm still waiting for the 12z meteograms to come out but the 00z runs from last night had 19 or 20 members with accumulating snow in portions of NC. That's pretty good agreement and less than 150 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hmmm GFS sharper with energy in Texas at 114 and stronger PNA ridge. Will be interesting to see how it translates downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Hmmm GFS sharper with energy in Texas at 114 and stronger PNA ridge. Will be interesting to see how it translates downstream. So close went negative over the gulf Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS is VERY close to a threat for the SE in the 16-17th timeframe. Pops a Gulf low this time at hour 126 and has the energy stronger and digging more. Goes to a neutral tilt much sooner than prior runs. Wouldn't take much of a change to get a low that rides up the coast dropping some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Gfs much improved for the follow up wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 And we have warning shots from the GFS.. Has trended north and stronger with our GOM low for the 17th event. This is the one I mentioned as a possibility for some light snow. Parallel Euro has shown 1-3" for a few runs and its ensembles agree in a light event also across the SE. Exact track and strength will determine how much but only 132 hours out. Now we need more of a NW trend and the system to go neutral/neg tilt sooner to pull the low closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS tried really hard boys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Another chance behind it too with a high coming into the Dakotas and another southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS tried really hard boys... Main takeaway is it trended stronger/NW which is what we want. Now we need future runs to show this also and for the CMC to pick up on it. The OP Euro jumping on board tonight with the parallel would be nice too. If it does snow the 17th then we have to give the new parallel Euro props, it has been showing it off and on for the past 2 days as well as its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Cmc is a fail Sunday and next week dry as a Bone Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Cmc is a fail Sunday and next week dry as a Bone Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Well once again we must await to see what the Euro has to say about things! GFS shows potential, CMC says no, what will the Doc say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Well once again we must await to see what the Euro has to say about things! GFS shows potential, CMC says no, what will the Doc say? Crushes the weekend with the northern stream Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It appears the UKMET may have something like the GFS but cannot really tell on the graphics I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 It appears the UKMET may have something like the GFS but cannot really tell on the graphics I see. I was just about to post the UKMET, this is what it's showing at hr. 120 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I was just about to post the UKMET, this is what it's showing at hr. 120 on Sunday. Hmmm that looks pretty good maybe a classic Miller A track there. I wonder what precip looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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