mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Well the earlier CMC gave us some so snow on the 19th and 20th. Lets see what the next run brings. I know it's not a top dog.It's top dog in JBs eyes, he said it yesterday ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Carolinas crushed Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Over 15 inches for Greenville, nc on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Lollipop of 20 inches showing up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I'm ignorant then. The models for the 8-9 day period haven't nailed down the low at all. To save this period is already figured it is premature, to say the least. If you assume the eps is correct and take the look verbatim you'll be in trouble. I am talking about the day 7 threat, that is dead and that looked as good as any threat we have tracked when it was at day 10-12. Luckily it died quick, I suspect the same will occur for anything after this period. I think we know how the day 9-12 period is going to evolve, seems obvious...time well tell. Just look at what is happening today and what the models are now predicting for day 7...deja vu, LOL. We have been in a very predictable and repeating pattern for some time, a strong -AO/-NAO hasn't changed anything, which we have been in for over week now. Yes we are having transient cold shots, it is still January, but still they are transient and it's not locking in. I can't stop it, I wish I could...only thing that can is spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The model page will not update for me. Anybody have some maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I understand what you mean Pack and it has merit but you have to admit also, its anecdotal....and yes right now we do have Lucy with the football out there on the 19th/20th. We'll see if you can score two nellies in a row here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Pretty convoluted at H5 for the 16-17th, that is the sw the 0Z EC matured. 12z GFS does not develop a dominant surface reflection despite some evidence of a neg tilt as it swings through the SE over the next 18-24hrs. Jet setup looks favorable for something to be cooking off the SE coast both the 17th and then the 19th-20th on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 PGV destroyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Over 15 inches for Greenville, nc on the GFS! Me likey....prolly gone next run but I damn sure saved those frames lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 So the new GFS run and the 00z CMC seem to agree more on a 19th storm. Now I'm interested to see the 12z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 So the new GFS run and the 00z CMC seem to agree more on a 19th storm. Now I'm interested to see the 12z CMC. Heck, Let's see what the doc has to say about all this nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I understand what you mean Pack and it has merit but you have to admit also, its anecdotal....and yes right now we do have Lucy with the football out there on the 19th/20th. We'll see if you can score two nellies in a row here. Time will tell, I am probably wrong, but is just what I see happening. Hard to argue at this point though. We are going to have storm after storm track north of us which should create a 50/50 and drop the cold down but another low rotates through south/central Canada and the cycle starts over again. We just need this to break down and start over again, why I am hoping for Feb turnaround. I always said last week of Jan into Feb will give us a 1-2 week window, still looks reasonable, I don't expect a end to end ratter...at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Completely agree with Fishel...smart guy. Greg Fishel @gbfishel 3m3 minutes ago Cold shot Wed looks less & less impressive, at least for Carolinas. Snow threats keep getting pushed back. Hopeful, but not holding breath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Me likey....prolly gone next run but I damn sure saved those frames lol.... Hell Yeah.png hell yeah 2.png In case anyone asks that is how the SE gets snow right down to OBX. Pull it a bit NW and both forums smile......Actually no, pull NW and someone frowns. Tough to have both get it. Screensaver worthy at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Polar and subtropical jet phases for that system. Well see what happens. Same thing for the MLK day system then the the jets were split up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 Pretty convoluted at H5 for the 16-17th, that is the sw the 0Z EC matured. 12z GFS does not develop a dominant surface reflection despite some evidence of a neg tilt as it swings through the SE over the next 18-24hrs. Jet setup looks favorable for something to be cooking off the SE coast both the 17th and then the 19th-20th on this run. 12zgfs011016156.png Models are moving around a lot beyond 5 days with so many s/w's rolling through the STJ. So first it was Jan 9, then 12th, then 17th, now 19th with a big storm. I'm not putting much stock in anything beyond 5 days out right. I do, think the 17th-19th period is the time to watch - once the western ridge decides to pop, the last s/w out is going to dig south and amplify, as the 12z GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Congrats, Jerome, NC on the 30" I never should have left Camp Lejune: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 LOL...GEFS and CMC-ENS both go seasonal day 9+, straight trainwreck of a pattern. 850 line is up in VA. 98 incoming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Here we go again with the GPS showing another big storm 10 days away. Maybe we just have to be patient and it will get fun for the 19th forward. At least we still get storms on the models to show up. There is still hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 LOL...GEFS and CMC-ENS both go seasonal day 9+, straight trainwreck of a pattern. 850 line is up in VA. 98 incoming.... This winter may bomb..but it's nothing like 98. Much of NC had a decent storm late month December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 This winter may bomb..but it's nothing like 98. Much of NC had a decent storm late month December. Funny how we all love the American modeling when it shows something favorable but when it doesnt it is crap - personally - that would be a sweet storm for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 This winter may bomb..but it's nothing like 98. Much of NC had a decent storm late month December. Yep, would love a 98 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Congrats, Jerome, NC on the 30" I never should have left Camp Lejune: Lol you're on the wrong variable. If you just lived 10 days into the future, you'd have more snow than you'd know what to do with. Location wouldn't matter a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I just made a post about this in the MA forum. You guys should really like the direction the latest ens runs are heading. The goa vortex retros far enough west for the pna and epo ridges to get pumped up. Long wave pattern digs a trough in the SE with much below normal 850s on the means. It'd quite a signal temp wise for such a long lead. Pattern is amplified over the conus with the door open for vorts to dig down just east of the Rockies and phase and/tap the southern stream. One of the issues were seeing medium term is airmasses getting moderated by pac air running up and over the pna ridge in the west. If the ens are right then that will get cutoff with the potential for cold air to dig south and east. The short story is temps could be less of an issue and the look remains active storm wise. Nobody should be mad at last night's eps run. Looks good at range for the SE and MA I agree Bob....like Matt East said, we first have to see the blocking pattern on the models come into reality and get that cold high to drop down...only then will we see an increase in wintry chances. I don't know if Pack's going to make it thru the rest of winter....tho I say that every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Seriously, dude, take a break. Why do you get all up on somebody's junk when don't post that it's going to snow or that the pattern breaks down? Every time. That's allowed, right? It's really weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I agree Bob....like Matt East said, we first have to see the blocking pattern on the models come into reality and get that cold high to drop down...only then will we see an increase in wintry chances. I don't know if Pack's going to make it thru the rest of winter....tho I say that every year LOL...probably not. We have been chasing unicorns, we won't be in Feb, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 LOL...probably not. We have been chasing unicorns, we won't be in Feb, IMO.Yeah so far this winter ranks right up there with 11/12. We have a lot of time especially here in the mountains but so far just ba hum bug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Why do you get all up on somebody's junk when don't post that it's going to snow or that the pattern breaks down? Every time. That's allowed, right? It's really weird. Just the overall negative attitude is miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I love the fact that we have all this technology, but on the other hand I loved the days when it would just start snowing and we knew nothing of it coming. It seemed magical...atleast if we don't get any storms in the next 10 days I will be in the Bahamas the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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