84 Hour NAM Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Anyone have eastern NC snow totals? I'm mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Pattern certainly has potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wow 18" of snow from the 2 storms in NW SC and over a foot for RDU to CLT. And Mac shettley and burger sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wow that's awesome for you guys on the west side of sc! If it verifies, Hope some love is spread to myrtle beach. If not, it may be road trip time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Writing checks now please. Would rather EURO to be right than to win the powerball. Nice line, I can relate....will be hard to top that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That encouraging thing is that for those in Alabama and Georgia, the first snowstorm is within 150 hours....so the storm isn't in D10 lalaland anymore. I know it's one run, but still encouraging....love that the Euro is showing it and not any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Basically widespread 15-20" amounts for northern GA, NW SC, CLT to Wilson and rocky mount area. Areas SE of there from PGV to Columbia SC to central GA with sharp gradient. Especially eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Love to see a 220 total hour clown for kicks with the ratio cranked up a notch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 For those wondering here is the Euro total through 240. This includes the first storm (14-15th) and then the second one for 17-18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 IMO the lows are too strong for GA and AL verbatim to be all snow but so far out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Love to see a 220 total hour clown for kicks with the ratio cranked up a notch Someone else can post a pic but using the 15:1 ratio from WxBell it's 25 to 30 inches from GSP through CLT to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 For those wondering here is the Euro total through 240. This includes the first storm (14-15th) and then the second one for 17-18th. All jokes aside, the most important thing in this situation, like others have been saying, is to realize that this pattern does have potential. We all know this is probably a weenie run and not to get hung up on specifics because they will change. In the meantime, rest up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 IMO the lows are too strong for GA and AL verbatim to be all snow but so far out still. I agree but I didn't want to say that. Not to be negative or anything but this is a prime location for it to trend north-west to really bank up against the Appalachians even if it does take out Atlanta and all of South Carolina doing so in the next few days. A lot of folks are in play with this one and I wouldn't be surprised if even DC came into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Please God just give me 1" of snow and I will be happy. I really hope these maps don't make the rounds on social media on Saturday and people take them literally. Obviously, there's no chance of that much snow in Atlanta. It's never happened in recorded history and it's foolish to think there will even be 25% of the snow it's showing. I agree with NWNC about the northwest trend being a good possibility. I think TN may end up being in a really good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Guys and gals...it been way too long a time since being on here. A lot of things going on both weather and non-weather related in my life. But as soon as saw this run, I had to come back to where it all began for me...just wanted to see the reaction from the Southeast peeps...quite a run on the Euro no doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Please God just give me 1" of snow and I will be happy. I really hope these maps don't make the rounds on social media on Saturday and people take them literally. Obviously, there's no chance of that much snow in Atlanta. It's never happened in recorded history and it's foolish to think there will even be 25% of the snow it's showing. I agree with NWNC about the northwest trend being a good possibility. I think TN may end up being in a really good spot. With the NAO and AO negative the NW trend is much less likely. That PV is pretty far south in Canada at 130 hours...the problem is if a piece of the PV phases in with the SRN stream wave it can pull it north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I'm afraid WAA would be a killer for us along the I-20 corridor in this scenario. I'm hoping the LP is a little weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 For those around Columbia, SC. The maps are already borderline for the area and temps are NOT supportive of accumulating snowfall on the 00z ECMWF Operational run. You guys want a bit further South storm at that strength and colder. In turn, that would take others out of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Having watched Gulf storms basically all my life, I fully believe the Euro is vastly underestimating the size of the precip shield with the strength and track of those lows. For whatever reason, models tend to do so on almost every storm they show moving across the Northern GOM. If that run came to pass, I'd probably paint 3-6 inches at least as far north as east central Kentucky where it's barely getting flakes to Northern Georgia and Alabama on a storm sitting at 999 at the Florida panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 For those around Columbia, SC. The maps are already borderline for the area and temps are NOT supportive of accumulating snowfall on the 00z ECMWF Operational run. You guys want a bit further South storm at that strength and colder. In turn, that would take others out of the snow. Or a bit weaker low, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Or a bit weaker low, correct? It's all dependent on the situation. I would say climo would suggest for a strong low to produce a monster storm in Columbia, to track across North-Central Florida. A weaker storm in the Northern Gulf can still produce a nice 4-6 inch if things are perfect and you are under heavier banding as it slightly turns up the coast and out to sea. That would take a few huge totals away from NC of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It's all dependent on the situation. I would say climo would suggest for a strong low to produce a monster storm in Columbia, to track across North-Central Florida. A weaker storm in the Northern Gulf can still produce a nice 4-6 inch if things are perfect and you are under heavier banding as it slightly turns up the coast and out to sea. That would take a few huge totals away from NC of course. I would say that's probably true for Atlanta also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I would say that's probably true for Atlanta also. I was about to go into a rant of the I-20 corridor & deep South versus the rest of the Southeast, but thought it'd be confusing. There have been many times that ATL has had a big storm and Columbia right on the edge with a dusting or rain while on the flip-side, Columbia has ended up with a bigger storm and Atlanta with the dusting or rain. As a general rule growing up, if Dallas or Atlanta got snow I would pay attention living close to Columbia. Over the years, it seems that isn't exactly the case anymore. I do agree, you want that weaker low, but I think with cold crashing in quicker for Atlanta than Columbia, you fare a bit better with a Northern Gulf storm than Columbia would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It's all dependent on the situation. I would say climo would suggest for a strong low to produce a monster storm in Columbia, to track across North-Central Florida. A weaker storm in the Northern Gulf can still produce a nice 4-6 inch if things are perfect and you are under heavier banding as it slightly turns up the coast and out to sea. That would take a few huge totals away from NC of course. Didn't a run of the Para GFS yesterday have something like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It's all dependent on the situation. I would say climo would suggest for a strong low to produce a monster storm in Columbia, to track across North-Central Florida. A weaker storm in the Northern Gulf can still produce a nice 4-6 inch if things are perfect and you are under heavier banding as it slightly turns up the coast and out to sea. That would take a few huge totals away from NC of course. 1/21/87 is the only event I know of where ATL and near I-20 saw several inches of snow with a stronger low and it took a funky track. It seems to me anything below 995mb I don't feel too good forecasting snow near I-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Didn't a run of the Para GFS yesterday have something like that? The 06z Para GFS had a 12+ inch storm for the area of Columbia. Or maybe it was the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The 06z Para GFS had a 12+ inch storm for the area of Columbia. Or maybe it was the 12z. I think it was 12z, now that i thought about it some more. That was beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 1/21/87 is the only event I know of where ATL and near I-20 saw several inches of snow with a stronger low and it took a funky track. It seems to me anything below 995mb I don't feel too good forecasting snow near I-20 Wasn't Blizzard of 93 a very strong GOM low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 1/21/87 is the only event I know of where ATL and near I-20 saw several inches of snow with a stronger low and it took a funky track. It seems to me anything below 995mb I don't feel too good forecasting snow near I-20 I wasn't born then and am not the best on keeping bookmarks from past events. Is there a link or good write-up on that event you could toss my (or the forum's) way? That one sounds interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wasn't Blizzard of 93 a very strong GOM low? Yeah I forgot to mention the most obvious one LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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