nwupstatewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If the 12z nam is the start of a trend, the upstate of SC may end up with mostly a heavy rain. The CAD was weaker on it's latest run and another bump of 2-3 degrees warmer would take us out of this storm.. I feel like we've seen this show before - one of two options for the Upstate IMO: heavy rain, or a sleet storm (like last year). Not letting myself get too excited about this one, but it's weather and these are just a bunch of computers guessing - we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I feel like we've seen this show before - one of two options for the Upstate IMO: heavy rain, or a sleet storm (like last year). Not letting myself get too excited about this one, but it's weather and these are just a bunch of computers guessing - we'll have to wait and see. Like others it's just hard to get excited. Tough forecast for us down near Charlotte. Most of the time it always is. Been disappointed many times by the warm nose or a slight shift in a track of the low. At this point models can only predict so much. I will say I will take a cold rain over losing power from a crippling ice storm any day. So count me out for some of the ice totals being shown at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 at least in the 250 you can always ride the ditch if need be. Ya'll have fun and be safe. true, thanks man and always #1 priority, fun is #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If the 12z nam is the start of a trend, the upstate of SC may end up with mostly a heavy rain. The CAD was weaker on it's latest run and another bump of 2-3 degrees warmer would take us out of this storm.. Very good point. The freezing rain and snow totals both went up, the former probably because there was less sleet. Seems that could easily move even warmer to rain if that low reforms too close to the coast. Supposedly the NAM has a great handle a 2M temps at this range. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 true, thanks man and always #1 priority, fun is #2 We just got nammed, probably the best run ever inside of 72hrs for NoVa. That's right, I said ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nothing but a bunch of negative nancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We just got nammed, probably the best run ever inside of 72hrs for NoVa. That's right, I said ever I was just looking at that Holy S#@t. wow, just wow. We are going to have to put a cord of wood in the basement first thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nothing but a bunch of negative nancies. Not negative - just lived here long enough to know that if it can go wrong, it usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derived42 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not negative - just lived here long enough to know that if it can go wrong, it usually does. For the novice, can you elaborate on what's going on with the current models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Trends looking better for RDU, hope that low continues to push east a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Silly weather channel with their head in the dirt. This is my forecast and I live a few miles from Charlotte.... With the possibility for a devastating ice storm, this actually really makes me mad since so many people just look at their forecast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk They legitimately had rain as my area's forecast for Friday, as of last night. I nearly LOLed when I saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nothing but a bunch of negative nancies.+100Hope they enjoy driving today and their power today, as both could be gone by tomorrow night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 For the novice, can you elaborate on what's going on with the current models? The 12z NAM came in a bit warmer for the Upstate areas, but the RGEM still seems sold on keeping it colder - much colder in fact. The NAM still shows a significant winter storm, but if it's a trend, it means we could be talking about more liquid precip (as in rain) than frozen/freezing. Having said that, it also cooled down the Raleigh area, so Oconee's comment about that easterly wind looks like it might be spot on, as the easterly wind coming off the Atlantic is probably interrupting the flow of colder/drier air to our north east. So to summarize, ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12Z RGEM is truly a thing of beauty for WNC. Just. Phenomenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derived42 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z NAM came in a bit warmer for the Upstate areas, but the RGEM still seems sold on keeping it colder - much colder in fact. The NAM still shows a significant winter storm, but if it's a trend, it means we could be talking about more liquid precip (as in rain) than frozen/freezing. Having said that, it also cooled down the Raleigh area, so Oconee's comment about that easterly wind looks like it might be spot on, as the easterly wind coming off the Atlantic is probably interrupting the flow of colder/drier air to our north east. So to summarize, ???? Fantastic! Thank you! Trying to learn all this on the fly. Very very interesting (always wanted to learn about all this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When people say RDU in the storm thread, do they mean RDU airport, Raleigh city proper, or the Triangle as a whole (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill)? Asking because I live in Carrboro, and that's a good 40 miles west of parts of Raleigh. I'm wondering if the above freezing temps spoken about at hr 36 goes for Wake. Durham and orange or just wake? Anyone can clarify for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So, when do people start FREAKING OUT about Gulf Coast convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12Z RGEM is truly a thing of beauty for WNC. Just. Phenomenal. Yep and it pounds much of SC too. Hopefully the nam is wrong, although I do not really want .50 or more ice. I'd take sleet in a heartbeat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Max wet bulb temps... looks as if cad is setting in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yep and it pounds much of SC too. Hopefully the nam is wrong, although I do not really want .50 or more ice. I'd take sleet in a heartbeat though. Map please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When people say RDU in the storm thread, do they mean RDU airport, Raleigh city proper, or the Triangle as a whole (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill)? Asking because I live in Carrboro, and that's a good 40 miles west of parts of Raleigh. I'm wondering if the above freezing temps spoken about at hr 36 goes for Wake. Durham and orange or just wake? Anyone can clarify for me? rdu as in the airport. youre in a better spot as you are west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So, when do people start FREAKING OUT about Gulf Coast convection? when they are nowcasting. We better not get robbed dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When people say RDU in the storm thread, do they mean RDU airport, Raleigh city proper, or the Triangle as a whole (Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill)? Asking because I live in Carrboro, and that's a good 40 miles west of parts of Raleigh. I'm wondering if the above freezing temps spoken about at hr 36 goes for Wake. Durham and orange or just wake? Anyone can clarify for me? You are in a good spot. Heck out that way i would pay attention to what they are saying for greensboro and the triad as well as the triangle. Im just past the airport literally on the wake durham county line and many times winter weather here is totally different than Downtown raleigh, garner, apex etc. Carrboro u have a little more elevation out that way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I will always and forever carry my disdain for the NAM. NAM = Never Again Man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Standard qualifiers apply (does not differentiate frozen precip types, etc. etc.), but I still love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well for Clt, I think I'm taking the whatever, wait and see approach. Again on the southern side of the storm with a forecasted low and high temperature of 32 through the duration. That really doesn't scare me for freezing rain as of now. Hoping to get colder aloft with the wedging and at least see more sleet and snow. See where things go today. If it doesn't get colder than 32, I don't think it's much of a storm for clt imo, just like 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Poor NAM. All by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You are in a good spot. Heck out that way i would pay attention to what they are saying for greensboro and the triad as well as the triangle. Im just past the airport literally on the wake durham county line and many times winter weather here is totally different than Downtown raleigh, garner, apex etc. Carrboro u have a little more elevation out that way too. Yeah it seems to be a real sharp gradient the farther west you go starting from like the center of Wake county. Hopefully Carrboro gets more snow since its farther west...maybe like 5" or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 McCrory declared state of emergency for NC ~30 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Where is ground zero for the nc people?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.