CooL Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 This is rain as of now. No cold air to work with Horrible post. Eps with a huge signal. 992 on the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Agree with cool here. Can't post from 5 days out and 850's below 0 that this looks like rain. Look at the Synoptics mid levels etc you can't just look at the surface.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Location first then temps. Eps looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Might as well go all in on a Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 OP for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Let's try to hope for the best for NW sections. They have been getting screwed. In the meantime, everyone go get some sleep ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Yea seems to me that at least across the interior and away from the coast it could be cold enough to support snow. We will see how it progresses.850 s are below 0 all the way to the coast . These set ups don't always have to JP the coast and this is a big board . So when you make a general statement like that , its just a bad post .There is a huge PNA spike , the Euro deepens thiis up the EC. Don't worry about temps yet . The signal on the EPS is only 4.5 days away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Park is up all the way to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Morris, on 24 Jan 2016 - 3:58 PM, said:Park is up all the way to 35. Made it to 35 here also a little earlier...With the recent cold temps monthly departure here down to +0.2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Here's the 12Z EPS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 This threat is much more like Boxing Day. A narrow but intense band that screws many. But if you manage to get it just right then you're golden. This is definitely a setup where the interior needs a coastal hugger and the coast needs a track towards the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 35/20 (-4) today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NJ&prodtype=discussion 000FXUS61 KPHI 242054AFDPHIAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ354 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2016 AS MENTIONED IN THE AFD YESTERDAY, WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIALFOR ANOTHER COASTAL LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS ARE GENERALLYSHOWING A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF COASTOR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THERE IS A HIGH MODEL SPREADTHOUGH WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.YESTERDAY IT WAS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GEM THAT ADVERTISED THE LOWTRACKING UP THE COAST WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WASOUT TO SEA. TODAY, IT`S THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF THAT HAS BRINGSIT UP THE COAST WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE IS OFFSHORE WITH THISSYSTEM. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR BOTH SOLUTION FROM THE GEFS ANDECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BUT AGAIN THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD. UNLIKEWITH YESTERDAY`S EVENT, THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE AN AREA OF HIGHPRESSURE ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH TO LOCK IN THE COLD AIR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Park doesn't radiate even with a thick fresh snow cover. Got down to only 28. Newark got down to 18 and Westhampton to 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 January so far, amazing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 January so far, amazing: No pattern change there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 No pattern change there The timing of the change, coming in climatologically coldest part of year was extremely key. This happens one month from now & its a wholly different ball of wax , one with a lot of tears for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The timing of the change, coming in climatologically coldest part of year was extremely key. This happens one month from now & its a wholly different ball of wax , one with a lot of tears for us! Correct N in Jan with a trough in the SE , SSTJ + PNA ridging on the W shore of HB was just asking for trouble . It only had to be cold enough and that look at 500 that was seen at some distance materialized . There is a threat this weekend and then the warm up will be another transient one by D 11- 12 you will start to see the above look come back in the means . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 PB, when is the post-mortem coming? I was waiting since last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Correct N in Jan with a trough in the SE , SSTJ + PNA ridging on the W shore of HB was just asking for trouble . It only had to be cold enough and that look at 500 that was seen at some distance materialized . There is a threat this weekend and then the warm up will be another transient one by D 11- 12 you will start to see the above look come back in the means . Looking more and more like muted mini-torches. No real Arctic blasts, either. Lots of 35-40 days which is just fine for me as a pack retention guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Looking more and more like muted mini-torches. No real Arctic blasts, either. Lots of 35-40 days which is just fine for me as a pack retention guy. There is just too much trough in the SE as a result of where that GOA low is . It wants to stay around 150 so any ridging just flies through the flow has and no staying power as the ridge builds back on the WC towards HB . N at the B/L ( frigid sux ) is perfect as long as we look like this at 500 - " just cold enough " with a STJ . Amazing there is AN snow for the I95 NYC and S . We are playing with house $ . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NJ&prodtype=discussion FXUS61 KPHI 251614 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1114 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPSOFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN TRACKS TOTHE NORTHEAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELGUIDANCE WITH THE GFS TAKING THE STORM OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLEIMPACTS TO OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT CLOSER TO THE COAST,BRINGING ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TO THE REGION. ANOTHERDIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS A NORTHERN LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THEGREAT LAKES. THE STRENGTH OF THIS STORM MAY BE IMPACTING JUST HOWCLOSE TO THE COAST THE SOUTHERN STORM MAY REMAIN. WE WILL FOLLOWWPC GUIDANCE AND BLEND WITH CONTINUITY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OFTHIS SYSTEM AND THEN CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STORM OVER THE COMINGDAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 the ao/nao is forecast to rise over +3 and then fall back to negative again...This makes me think we will see a major thaw probably brief and cold will follow that...The timing looks like just after Feb. 1st...February could start out like 1983 with near record warmth...to early to say February 2016 will yield a storm like 1983...we already saw that the other day...two in one year?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Park up to 37. One more degree and we're above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Morris, on 25 Jan 2016 - 09:20 AM, said: Park doesn't radiate even with a thick fresh snow cover. Got down to only 28. Newark got down to 18 and Westhampton to 7. 15 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 We are back in the game after Day 11 . The warm up is transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 2M temps over the next 10 days compliments of your snow cover . You spike D 9 - 11 as a system cuts to the lakes and then the trough comes back D 12 -15 The EPS look at 500 has the GEFS/GEPS agreeing with the look . D 1- 8 look to be a few AN . The warm up looks transient . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 39/28 today (+1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 39/28 today (+1) What's cpk running on the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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