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January 2016 Disco/Obs: A New Year, A New Pattern


Rjay

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Nice thunderstorm here in SW Suffolk earlier with very heavy downpours

and 3 close lightning flashes. Had moderate coastal flooding with the

morning high tide closing several streets near the Great South Bay.

You move?

My buddy in Lindenhurst had water surrounding his home.

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You move?

My buddy is Lindenhurst had water surrounding his home.

 

Yeah, I officially joined the SW Suffolk County crew. Several streets around here had flooding along the creeks

and canals leading to the Great South Bay. A few of the lowest areas had water creeping up near the edge

of the lawns along the street. Stopped a about 1 foot short of coming up on the lowest parts of 27a near the

local marinas. 

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Yeah, I officially joined the SW Suffolk County crew. Several streets around here had flooding along the creeks

and canals leading to the Great South Bay. A few of the lowest areas had water creeping up near the edge

of the lawns along the street. Stopped a about 1 foot short of coming up on the lowest parts of 27a near the

local marinas.

So you decided to punish yourself with south shore winters. Yikes.

I purposefully moved to commack to avoid that.

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1/3 through January

Departures through 1/10 - These should be erased by 1/21

NYC: +3.6

EWR: +3.7

LGA: +4.4

JFK: +3.3

TTN: +3.4

PHL: +4.3

Not sure they will be totally erased...most of the upcoming days are like 34/25 which is only -2, and NYC gets into the 40s Tuesday with the clipper heading well north following a midnight high tomorrow. If next weekend's significant storm cuts, that's another day in the 50s. So the departures will go down but may not be totally reversed.
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Not sure they will be totally erased...most of the upcoming days are like 34/25 which is only -2, and NYC gets into the 40s Tuesday with the clipper heading well north following a midnight high tomorrow. If next weekend's significant storm cuts, that's another day in the 50s. So the departures will go down but may not be totally reversed.

The midnight high tomorrow will probably be in the high 30's, so not a big departure on the high. I agree with your overall assessment though, we will likely need the last 10 days to be BN to completely erase it.
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Not sure they will be totally erased...most of the upcoming days are like 34/25 which is only -2, and NYC gets into the 40s Tuesday with the clipper heading well north following a midnight high tomorrow. If next weekend's significant storm cuts, that's another day in the 50s. So the departures will go down but may not be totally reversed.

I said pretty much the same thing earlier and was run out of town

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Mixture of above and below normal temperature days set to continue.

But the big story isn't the exact departure, it's that the current average

temperature for the first 10 days of January is 14.6 degrees lower in

NYC than December. So far it's a drop from 50.8 to 36.2 and it's the largest

December to January drop since 1984-1985.

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/11/2016  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       MON  11| TUE 12| WED 13| THU 14| FRI 15| SAT 16| SUN 17| MON 18 CLIMO X/N  39| 24  41| 22  33| 20  31| 30  44| 38  46| 41  45| 32  38 24 38
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Mixture of above and below normal temperature days set to continue.

But the big story isn't the exact departure, it's that the current average

temperature for the first 10 days of January is 14.6 degrees lower in

NYC than December. So far it's a drop from 50.8 to 36.2 and it's the largest

December to January drop since 1984-1985.

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK

KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/11/2016 0000 UTC

FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192

MON 11| TUE 12| WED 13| THU 14| FRI 15| SAT 16| SUN 17| MON 18 CLIMO

X/N 39| 24 41| 22 33| 20 31| 30 44| 38 46| 41 45| 32 38 24 38

What does the x/n mean

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i continue to not be a fan of the look on the ensembles. i want to see a stronger band of negative anomalies south of the block. compare to 58 and 2010. the current models cut off the negative height anomalies around DC and they aren't that negative. we are going to have a pac air problem regardless of everyone doing cartwheels

bump
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Then what does tmp mean? On the next line that you didn't paste? I thought that was the temperature.

Temperature at a specific point in time e.g., 12z.

 

Some useful links:

GFS: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/mavcard.php

MEX: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/mexcard.php (GFS extended)

NAM: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/namcard.php

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Despite the more favorable blocking pattern, the very strong El Nino and raging STJ are

still lowering pressures over the SW US . This results in the more amplified

storms pumping the ridge over the Northeast just enough for a warmer storm

track than people want to see. That's how this past weekends storm and the one

around the 16th  come further NW than the long range models showed.

The model skill really struggles with such a fast flow pattern in the long range.

 

 

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