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andyhb

Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2016

Number of Tornadoes in 2016  

61 members have voted

  1. 1. Number of Tornadoes

    • Less than 900
      5
    • 900 to 1000
      3
    • 1000 to 1100
      6
    • 1100 to 1200
      14
    • 1200 to 1300
      15
    • 1300 to 1400
      15
    • 1400 to 1500
      1
    • Greater than 1500
      2


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Your composite map is missing a high risk

For some reason the map used the 1630z update from 10/26/10 (smaller segment further east; tornadoes were ongoing before 1630z). I updated the map accordingly.

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Banking on the N Plains being rather active in late May and June might be a good call as well. Recent late spring/early summer results there coming out of significant Ninos are pretty telling with such events as Spencer, Manchester and the 2010 fireworks.

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Some of you may remember last year that I posted about a crude method for scoring Plains chase seasons I developed in my spare time. I ran correlations for these scores against various teleconnection indices and found that the strongest leading indicator for spring activity, by far, is the preceding winter's mean AO value. In summary: we want to average a +AO through winter. December got us off to a nice head start, though we look to head negative for at least the first part of January, so that's maybe something to keep an eye on.

 

Yikes.

 

post-2311-0-15469000-1451929306.png

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Yikes.

 

Well, duh. I mean, it's the mid 2010s. We can't have a winter without dry, cold northwest flow lasting into late March or anything like that.

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Well, duh. I mean, it's the mid 2010s. We can't have a winter without dry, cold northwest flow lasting into late March or anything like that.

 

I guess to be fair, +AO/+NAO winters generally haven't been doing squat for us the past few years.

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1,162

Ist high risk May 17th. I wouldn't rule out a Palm Sunday 1965 kind of event. Gut feeling.

Oh man. Well, gotta happen again at some point I guess. That area has had tornadoes but not much in terms of violent activity in recent decades, and Palm Sunday (along with other events) shows it is not immune.

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Well, duh. I mean, it's the mid 2010s. We can't have a winter without dry, cold northwest flow lasting into late March or anything like that.

 

Winter AO is now averaging negative.

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Total: 1,229 tornadoes

 

First High Risk: February 1

 

I'll even add that I expect the first High Risk to affect somewhere in the lower MS Valley (most likely centered around NE LA/E AR/central and N MS/SW TN). It will likely be associated with a multi-day outbreak commencing on January 31 over the southern High Plains (N TX/S OK).

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Total: 1,229 tornadoes

 

First High Risk: February 1

 

I'll even add that I expect the first High Risk to affect somewhere in the lower MS Valley (most likely centered around NE LA/E AR/central and N MS/SW TN). It will likely be associated with a multi-day outbreak commencing on January 31 over the southern High Plains (N TX/S OK).

 

Any signs of a pattern shift that could back this up? I haven't been looking at the LR models but that's not very far off at all. 

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Total: 1,229 tornadoes

 

First High Risk: February 1

 

I'll even add that I expect the first High Risk to affect somewhere in the lower MS Valley (most likely centered around NE LA/E AR/central and N MS/SW TN). It will likely be associated with a multi-day outbreak commencing on January 31 over the southern High Plains (N TX/S OK).

Good call sniffing out the general time-frame (looks like Feb. 1-2), although I doubt we would get to high risk given the progged setup.

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Good call sniffing out the general time-frame (looks like Feb. 1-2), although I doubt we would get to high risk given the progged setup.

 

Had the Euro maintained its setup from earlier, I don't think a high risk would be completely out of the question. Although on the latest run the mid-level lapse rates are not nearly what they had been on earlier runs. Wording is likely going to need to be ramped down if this previous solution becomes the trend. 

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Had the Euro maintained its setup from earlier, I don't think a high risk would be completely out of the question. Although on the latest run the mid-level lapse rates are not nearly what they had been on earlier runs. Wording is likely going to need to be ramped down if this previous solution becomes the trend. 

18z GFS is very bullish, implies this could be an outbreak and as far north as the Ohio Valley. I thought about starting a thread, but it's still early and overlaps neighboring subforums.

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18z GFS is very bullish, implies this could be an outbreak and as far north as the Ohio Valley. I thought about starting a thread, but it's still early and overlaps neighboring subforums.

 

Generally speaking, I tend to discount the 06 and 18z GFS runs, especially in the LR. While the 18z run is certainly concerning, I wouldn't put a ton of stock into it as of now.

 

00z runs will be in soon though, so we'll have to see what happens there. 

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