nzucker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The coast might start as snow but go to IP quickly then rain. I could see NYC getting a coating to an inch, Dobbs Ferry getting 1-3", then quickly increasing to the north and east. I'm sitting at 1600' elevation in far northeast PA for this and I still wouldn't bet on more than 3-6" here. SW flow events have a way of being warmer in mid levels and colder at the surface than expected. They also often are faster than expected which could be good since it gives the 1040 high less time to collapse east. Also, this has been well modeled for a while so people are forgetting it's still an eternity in model time. The action doesn't start till like 108 so we are talking about a Day 5 event. And we know how much can change in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Agree. I don't see this as snow for the coast. Still early in the game. The euro makes the most sense to me. Whether early or late ,Anthony this is not a system you should be too concerned with being in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The euro makes the most sense to me. Whether early or late ,Anthony this is not a system you should be too concerned with being in Brooklyn.6z gfs gives brooklyn a period of decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 6z gfs gives brooklyn a period of decent snow. 6z didn't do much from the 00z run, nearly identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Still looks good up here... Cut back totals for some spots, increase for others. Just some model noise IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 If the high placement is correct then we'll be getting a lot of sleet/freezing rain as low level cold is likely underestimated. I don't see much if any snow until well N&W. And yes this could easily trend worse but it can also trend a little better. The Euro has stunk on low level temps on these events the last 2-3 winters. Really all models have outside of Long Island where the change to rain has been easier to come by. But even NYC and LaGuardia have been stubbornly cold on these SWFEs where we've had strong highs to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Latest AFD snippets from Upton and Mt. Holly - I'm guessing I may be just on the wrong side of this one in the Edison area (7 miles from Union County and the Upton CWA), with mostly rain likely, but it looks like accumulating snow isn't too far to my north, so maybe we'll get lucky and at least get a small accumulation before the changeover to rain - it would at least be something. Sitting by the pool right now outside our hotel a block from the beach in Vero Beach, FL - 76F and a gorgeous sunrise with a high in the low 80s expected - missed the historic warmth back home yesterday, as we're here for the week, but returning Monday afternoon, just in time for the potential wintry precip (most of my family lives down here now, so I get really annoyed when we come here and I miss any snowfalls, lol). http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off THE STRONG HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND IN A GOOD POSITION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING TOSET UP AND SUPPLY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION LATE MON NIGHTINTO TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TRENDED COLDER SURFACE ANDALOFT...WITH H7-8 TEMPS REMAINING BELOW 0C AT LEAST UNTILAFTERNOON...WHEN STRONG S-SW FLOW AT H7-8 SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGHWARM AIR ALOFT. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A START ASSNOW...TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PCPN TUE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE TORAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO TUE NIGHT. IF THIS COLD TRENDMAINTAINS...INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY HAVE POTENTIAL AT SEEING THE FIRSTSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...WHILE AREAS JUST TO THESOUTH...INCLUDING COASTAL CT TO JUST NW OF NYC...COULD HAVE A PD OFACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN. EVEN SOME COASTAL AREASCOULD SEE A BRIEF COATING OF SNOW/SLEET BEFORE WASHING AWAY.CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FORINTERIOR SECTIONS ONLY ATTM. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off MONDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH BUILDS OFFSHORE, AND THEFRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS AWARM FRONT. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY BEGIN TO FORMTO OUR SOUTH. OVERRRNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOPAND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE COLDAIR IN PLACE, SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE SOME WINTRYPRECIPITATION DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE ISINDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN,SNOW, AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES, WHILE THERE ISTHE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET EVEN AS FARSOUTH AS THE DELAWARE VALLEY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro kinda sucked this run. Hopefully 12z is better. But honestly it will not be too bad here for the city. 1-3 inches before the change seems legit 6 gfs was kinda a step the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Cut back totals for some spots, increase for others. Just some model noise IMO Looks to see the higher terrain in all areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Latest AFD snippets from Upton and Mt. Holly - I'm guessing I may be just on the wrong side of this one in the Edison area (7 miles from Union County and the Upton CWA), with mostly rain likely, but it looks like accumulating snow isn't too far to my north, so maybe we'll get lucky and at least get a small accumulation before the changeover to rain - it would at least be something. Sitting by the pool right now outside our hotel a block from the beach in Vero Beach, FL - 76F and a gorgeous sunrise with a high in the low 80s expected - missed the historic warmth back home yesterday, as we're here for the week, but returning Monday afternoon, just in time for the potential wintry precip (most of my family lives down here now, so I get really annoyed when we come here and I miss any snowfalls, lol). http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off THE STRONG HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND IN A GOOD POSITION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING TO SET UP AND SUPPLY COLD LOW LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TRENDED COLDER SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH H7-8 TEMPS REMAINING BELOW 0C AT LEAST UNTIL AFTERNOON...WHEN STRONG S-SW FLOW AT H7-8 SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A START AS SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PCPN TUE MORNING BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON AND INTO TUE NIGHT. IF THIS COLD TREND MAINTAINS...INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY HAVE POTENTIAL AT SEEING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON...WHILE AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH...INCLUDING COASTAL CT TO JUST NW OF NYC...COULD HAVE A PD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN. EVEN SOME COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE A BRIEF COATING OF SNOW/SLEET BEFORE WASHING AWAY. CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS ONLY ATTM. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off MONDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH BUILDS OFFSHORE, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ALSO OVERNIGHT, A TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY BEGIN TO FORM TO OUR SOUTH. OVERRRNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE, SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING RAIN, SNOW, AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES, WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE DELAWARE VALLEY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. Good to see you RU, sorry to hear you are in my least favorite place...FL. God how I hate it there. My parents lived in Hollywood for 20 years and I never went outside due to the heat when I visited. The weather has been so freakish I won't be surprised if we do get something out of this system, we are not far off ( I'm in Colonia ) and after the October snowstorm a few seasons back, nothing would surprise me......seems a little jiggle here or there and we could get a slushy thump before going over to rain. that's the vibe I am getting from some, though rain would be my guess at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The euro makes the most sense to me. Whether early or late ,Anthony this is not a system you should be too concerned with being in Brooklyn.Wow we agree lol. Anyway I think we see the other models trend to the Euro. This is a strictly north of route 84 storm IMO. Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The coast might start as snow but go to IP quickly then rain. I could see NYC getting a coating to an inch, Dobbs Ferry getting 1-3", then quickly increasing to the north and east. I'm sitting at 1600' elevation in far northeast PA for this and I still wouldn't bet on more than 3-6" here. SW flow events have a way of being warmer in mid levels and colder at the surface than expected. They also often are faster than expected which could be good since it gives the 1040 high less time to collapse east. Also, this has been well modeled for a while so people are forgetting it's still an eternity in model time. The action doesn't start till like 108 so we are talking about a Day 5 event. And we know how much can change in 5 days. Agreed I can see 2 inches or so for white plains. I'm going to be in Lake George for this I can see 4 to 8 for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The euro makes the most sense to me. Whether early or late ,Anthony this is not a system you should be too concerned with being in Brooklyn. That's if the high leaves quickly. If it doesn't, then it's a different game. NYC has been lucky recently with these type of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 That's if the high leaves quickly. If it doesn't, then it's a different game. NYC has been lucky recently with these type of events. Climatology alone will tell you that this will likely be a upper HV/NE type deal. There's a reason why Albany averages over 60" and NYC only averages 25". We got lucky last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The fact the Nam is similar to the Euro makes me very skeptical the Euro is correct right now. The NAM is virtually never correct at 72-84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Wow we agree lol. Anyway I think we see the other models trend to the Euro. This is a strictly north of route 84 storm IMO. Merry Christmas Same to you. Ray and I had originally liked this from 84 on N and the JP N of the pike . If this same set up was crashing into a cold dome of air like these did in Feb then I would be more inclined to think the erosion would be slower and the models would get beat I personally don't think that's the case for the city and coast . These mid levels usually sneak above 0 on the coast pretty quickly When the air mass starts out marginal . So its wagons N for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Climatology alone will tell you that this will likely be a upper HV/NE type deal. There's a reason why Albany averages over 60" and NYC only averages 25". We got lucky last year. Still early in the season to say we got lucky last year. We will get our chances soon. I just would like to see a flake with this storm. Haven't seen any flakes yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Still early in the season to say we got lucky last year. We will get our chances soon. I just would like to see a flake with this storm. Haven't seen any flakes yet. Thats the key right here. 30 minutes of mood flakes and I consider this a win for NYC metro and then we await the 1st week of January and see if the step down unfolds as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The Euro has stunk on low level temps on these events the last 2-3 winters. Really all models have outside of Long Island where the change to rain has been easier to come by. But even NYC and LaGuardia have been stubbornly cold on these SWFEs where we've had strong highs to the north Coastal CT seems to do well on swfe as well. Western coastal that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Still early in the season to say we got lucky last year. We will get our chances soon. I just would like to see a flake with this storm. Haven't seen any flakes yet. Nickel and dime but I thought NYC average is 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Low is gonna be stronger on 12z then previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Low is gonna be stronger on 12z then previous runs Yeah thats not good for us... Its 5mb stronger and slightly west of 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 All-around bad run. Stronger low, weaker high, no shot at a transfer. This was a pretty big shift from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Gfs jumps towards euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Well, I was in a good spot up here, still 3-6" up here, but not a good trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Well, I was in a good spot up here, still 3-6" up here, but not a good trend Big jump toward the Euro.. This is prob gonna end up being a 1-4" event for us up here ending as rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Not the end of the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Not the end of the world Still shows me as 4-6 and I say no way . Anybody still using Plymouth skew t soundings ? Can't get it to work . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 HP is moving east quicker, primary low getting stronger each run. Seasonal trend ridgey east. All adds up to chance of a pure cutter increasing. Which may be good for a storm a couple days later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The Euro is insanely slow bringing moisture in that is the biggest difference really. The 102 hour Euro vs the 90 hour GFS at 12Z is laughable. If the GFS is right even with the Euro thermals more frozen stuff will fall but if the precip is as slow as the Euro suggests it's a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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