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January 2016 Pattern Disco


Damage In Tolland

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??????

D-F avg will not be negative. Maybe if he included Mar like he did in 2013 to prove his forecast, but you can also have final warmings in the strat near that time too..independent of SAI.  I'd say this shift in more of a +PNA is not from a  disturbed vortex, but more of a true signal from tropical convection finally making it more Nino-like. 

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D-F avg will not be negative. Maybe if he included Mar like he did in 2013 to prove his forecast, but you can also have final warmings in the strat near that time too..independent of SAI.  I'd say this shift in more of a +PNA is not from a  disturbed vortex, but more of a true signal from tropical convection finally making it more Nino-like. 

The forcing is en route to the dateline, AWT.

Agreed.

 

I forecast for D-M, and while I agree that it will be tough to average a -AO, that was always the weakest aspect, at least of my outlook, anyway....I expected it to be near neutral in the mean when all was said and done, but did go slightly negative in a literal game-time decision.

I think you're bit of trigger happy here.

We'll see...

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He needs to look at data. I went back and looked at day 15, 10mb forecasts and day 10 forecasts and the models have had a significant bias in warming and displacing the strat  vortex. Maybe later in Jan? I dun

He still thinks a big attack will happen near mid January which will really disrupt the PV and turn the AO  negative.

he disappeared last year, expect to see less and less of him now

He has been posting  in the NYC thread.

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The forcing is en route to the dateline, AWT.

Agreed.

 

I forecast for D-M, and while I agree that it will be tough to average a -AO, that was always the weakest aspect, at least of my outlook, anyway....I expected it to be near neutral in the mean when all was said and done, but did go slightly negative in a literal game-time decision.

I think you're bit of trigger happy here.

We'll see...

 

Well he's expecting a full blown -AO based on SAI. I'm not saying it will be always positive, but the theory as some others have already pointed out..probably won't work out again if we expect a negative D-F.  I guess if we see a SSW and a flip to a strong negative look, I will give it some credence, but I have doubts.  The thing is, the vortex always gets disturbed in the winter, and El Nino tends to help promote a -AO based on tropospheric responses to SSTs and latent heat release. Prove to me how the SAI can influence the pattern independently. If we see this alternate to a neutral or slightly negative state at times, that isn't proving the SAI to me. I'm open to it, as I always am when it comes to new things in atmospheric science, but I have some doubts. 

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I'm going to try to read Scott's mind, and it seems to me is taking a preemptive posture in anticipation of another significant flip and good winter, despite an SAI failure...like last year.

 

I always said that if we do sort of flip and have a good stretch, it will be because of the Pacific. I have doubts on the AO. 

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Well he's expecting a full blown -AO based on SAI. I'm not saying it will be always positive, but the theory as some others have already pointed out..probably won't work out again if we expect a negative D-F.  I guess if we see a SSW and a flip to a strong negative look, I will give it some credence, but I have doubts.  The thing is, the vortex always gets disturbed in the winter, and El Nino tends to help promote a -AO based on tropospheric responses to SSTs and latent heat release. Prove to me how the SAI can influence the pattern independently. If we see this alternate to a neutral or slightly negative state at times, that isn't proving the SAI to me. I'm open to it, as I always am when it comes to new things in atmospheric science, but I have some doubts. 

 

 

I always said that if we do sort of flip and have a good stretch, it will be because of the Pacific. I have doubts on the AO. 

Fair enough.

 

There is obviously something there with the SAI, but something is probably missing, too.

It will be years before we really know how valuable of a tool it is, so doubts are certainly warranted.

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Fair enough.

 

There is obviously something there with the SAI, but something is probably missing, too.

It will be years before we really know how valuable of a tool it is, so doubts are certainly warranted.

 

Yes I believe in the physics of it. I guess to me, I'm not sold on it to be a big driver at times like some are. The actual correlation of it probably is lower than we think.  Just my thoughts, I'm not trying to sway anyone, nor say I am correct. 

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Yes I believe in the physics of it. I guess to me, I'm not sold on it to be a big driver at times like some are. The actual correlation of it probably is lower than we think.  Just my thoughts, I'm not trying to sway anyone, nor say I am correct. 

Not at all, I got ya.

Really reasonable, and I agree....there is likely more to it, as we will find out in years to come.

The correlation will likely drop some.

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