January 2016 Pattern Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think split, but any warming or ridging that reverses the mean westerlies will have implications below it, in the troposphere.

Why split?

[CoastalWx]

Why split?

Because I think a split would help place a PV into Canada. If that happens, it could aid in cold delivery into U.S. That is my opinion anyways. I don't pretend to be an expert. There also isn't a total corespondence from stratosphere to troposphere because there exists a very distinct boundary to which airmasses can't always be exchanged.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Because I think a split would help place a PV into Canada. If that happens, it could aid in cold delivery into U.S. That is my opinion anyways. I don't pretend to be an expert. There also isn't a total corespondence from stratosphere to troposphere because there exists a very distinct boundary to which airmasses can't always be exchanged.

Well, it depends which side of the globe it ends up...

[CoastalWx]

Well, it depends which side of the globe it ends up...

 

Well idealy one on this side, and the other part of PV on other in Asia.

[Isotherm]

I agree, Scott. You are correct. The optimal wave-2 constructive interference typically involves enhanced ridging to the west of Greenland as well as near the Kara Sea / NE Europe.

 

Split is preferred primarily because the regrouping process for the polar vortex is generally more prolonged, and so the resultant tropospheric blocking is often more protracted following splits. However, displacements have also occurred in strongly negative AO regimes, and have led to at least 40 day periods of robust tropospheric blocking. One also must examine whether or not the troposphere itself is conducive to the maintenance of blocking. Depending upon the answer, episodes post SSW could be longer or shorter.

[OKpowdah]

66 has been showing up since like the 13th in the extended. I posted those in upstate ny a week ago.

 

Yup both 66 and 78 have been common analogs for a while now for around the 1/17-18 timeframe. And given the pattern evolution and incoming Pacific energy, these are NOT trivial

[CoastalWx]

Yup both 66 and 78 have been common analogs for a while now for around the 1/17-18 timeframe. And given the pattern evolution and incoming Pacific energy, these are NOT trivial

 

Nice thoughts with that date. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yup both 66 and 78 have been common analogs for a while now for around the 1/17-18 timeframe. And given the pattern evolution and incoming Pacific energy, these are NOT trivial

I need to read up on 1966

[weathafella]

I need to read up on 1966

I'll give it to you. My finals were postponed for a week....freshman year of college.

[Typhoon Tip]

I've been checking the GEFs progs for the thermal layout at the various sigmas from time to time; I'm not seeing much evidence for a 10 hPa warm event.  There is, however, a moderate+ warm event over N Eurasia in the 100 hPa level (above the winter tropopause depth but indicative, nonetheless) - I suspect that is associated with recent planetary wave decay.   

 

The difference there?   The former tends to precede SSW; the latter is another correlation to -AO not correlated with QBO -

 

-AO is negative AO so ...

 

But perhaps that source will begin picking that up in the modeling.  So far, quiet. 

[H2Otown_WX]

I don't see 1966 listed on that graphic...am I blind?

[JC-CT]

I don't see 1966 listed on that graphic...am I blind?

Yes sir

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jan 66 was pretty pedestrian in sne.

[Ginx snewx]

Jan 66 was pretty pedestrian in sne.

50 inch month in Reading?

[Hoth]

I'll give it to you. My finals were postponed for a week....freshman year of college.

I watched a special on the Blizzard of '93 the other day. They asked a guy from Syracuse what he thought of the storm and he said it was nothing compared to '66.

[DavisStraight]

I think 66 was more of a New York storm, that's what I remember from the little I've read about. Jerry's got me wondering though

[weathafella]

Jan 66 was pretty pedestrian in sne.

Only because of mix and dry slots. DC cleaned up as did upstate NY where I was. Back home in joisy is was meh but I'd take a shot again given how powerful it was in general. That was a bitter cold and snowy winter at school.

[mitchnick]

Only because of mix and dry slots. DC cleaned up as did upstate NY where I was. Back home in joisy is was meh but I'd take a shot again given how powerful it was in general. That was a bitter cold and snowy winter at school.

my first snow tunnels

still remember 50 years later.........  :-/

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 inch month in Reading?

The blizzard...not the month

[40/70 Benchmark]

Only because of mix and dry slots. DC cleaned up as did upstate NY where I was. Back home in joisy is was meh but I'd take a shot again given how powerful it was in general. That was a bitter cold and snowy winter at school.

I know why it blew....hugged.

[H2Otown_WX]

Yes sir

I see (from top to bottom) 1-18-1983, 2-6-1978, 1-25-1958, 2-4-1960, 1-22-1998, 1-16-1981, 2-3-1980, 1-15-1958, 1-23-1981, and 1-28-1998.

[weathafella]

Through 1/11/16 for the month to date:

BOS: +5.2

BDL: +4.6

PVD: +4.2

ORH: +4.9

For BOS, 39 of 42 days of met winter so far have been above normal.

[Damage In Tolland]

Through 1/11/16 for the month to date:

BOS: +5.2

BDL: +4.6

PVD: +4.2

ORH: +4.9

For BOS, 39 of 42 days of met winter so far have been above normal.

Based on the pattern ..going to be impossible to finish BN

[Damage In Tolland]

Scooter,,I know last week you really liked how things looked over the next 2-4 weeks. Are you still feeling that way?

[CoastalWx]

Scooter,,I know last week you really liked how things looked over the next 2-4 weeks. Are you still feeling that way?

 

Well we go right back to a more +AO look which stinks. This all started from tropospheric forcing from the Icelandic low, but in a base state that wants a +AO for the time being. So, I am not surprised we go right back to a +AO for now. However, the Pacific is actually a good look. I think it may try to get active again later in the 11-15 day and beyond, but I'm not going to speculate on snow. The thing is, you can only say so much about the overall look of a pattern. All these nuances of s/w's in the flow that can dictate getting skunked or getting slaughtered cannot be determined. With that said..it's definitely serviceable. I wouldn't say it's great, but it is one that will offer some opportunities. 

[ORH_wxman]

I like the look going forward. We lose the -NAO which will make cutters more likely but a good pacific will give plenty of chances.

We are probably going to get another big -AO block down the road though if the past is any indication. It would be very rare to have an initial event like this and not reload it down the line.

[dan123]

+PNA on the ensembles ? EURO

[CoastalWx]

+PNA on the ensembles ? EURO

 

Yeah, even a -EPO look. And I agree with Will. I think with the stratospheric warming...it may argue for another -AO chance in Feb. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I like the look going forward. We lose the -NAO which will make cutters more likely but a good pacific will give plenty of chances.

We are probably going to get another big -AO block down the road though if the past is any indication. It would be very rare to have an initial event like this and not reload it down the line.

SSW will do  the trick.

 

I think until then, its the NE show....then once the NAO comes back in response to the SSW, them ma goes out with a bang.

[CoastalWx]

The IO concerns really have diminished if the progs are right. I only see a very weak signal. On the other hand, the forcing near the dateline weakens too. So maybe I would guess that the pattern in the 11-15 day may stay that way for a little while anyways.