40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Yea, you should do better this season....same for the mid atl. The only way I see MBY getting HUGE totals is via CF enhancement, otherwise, not that type of season, unlike last year. I like points SW of me and down the coast better this year.. Always have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think one of these waves coming from the arctic is bound to phase with the S Jet and explode off the coast aided by the Gulf Stream inducing a sub 960mb low that stalls off Cape Cod MA paralyzing civilization from nyc to bos for a week with 30-50" snowfall toals. With an uber juicy STJ, anomalously warm ocean temps lending a baroclinic assist, a -AO, -NAO and -EPO, we'll have opportunities. Whether or not the stars align to yield a blockbuster remains to be seen, but certainly not hoisting the white flag. Two of the best storms of my life have come in the last five years, and both in years that people were proclaiming to be ratters in mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think one of these waves coming from the arctic is bound to phase with the S Jet and explode off the coast aided by the Gulf Stream inducing a sub 960mb low that stalls off Cape Cod MA paralyzing civilization from nyc to bos for a week with 30-50" snowfall toals. Also, Temps down here in FL just dropped below 70-80 for the first time since March this week, so Ocean temps are warm for this time of year. Anything that gets going off the SE coast should be able to into that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Jeez look at the blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Wes in the MA thread posted CIPS d+11 analogs. Lots of 1998 but also 2/3/78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Jeez look at the blocking Is that little low near Maine our jan12-14 threat becoming a 50-50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Things are rolling right today. Check out the strat convo in HM tweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Mahk- can you provide a link or a 10 word or less summary of Strat comments? I am at work and have no time to dig. Thanks in advance!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Is that little low near Maine our jan12-14 threat becoming a 50-50? If that -NAO block holds it most certainly will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Mahk- can you provide a link or a 10 word or less summary of Strat comments? I am at work and have no time to dig. Thanks in advance!! If I read it right a full split at 50, partial at 30 and quite disturbed at 10. From the euro. Put the sudden back in SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RikC Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Things are rolling right today. Check out the strat convo in HM tweets. can you repeat his twitter handle? thx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If I read it right a full split at 50, partial at 30 and quite disturbed at 10. From the euro. Put the sudden back in SSW Yeah, shows a split at 50hpa, almost at 30hpa, not far at 10hpa. May be rushing things a bit, but as I've said in previous posts, I've liked the late January 20-30th period for a possible split attempt. This would be the time frame of most active WAF. We will see if future changes occur in runs over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 One eyed pig on a spit serious JUJU for the 17th on the EPS Helluva way to run a torch Yea I am pretty excited after seeing that EPS run, deep deep winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 12-13th is the one to watch. Big potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 12-13th is the one to watch. Big potential I like the vorticity, hopefuly we can cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The 12-13th is so much closer than the 18th idea at this vantage point. I just feel a day 12 signal is just to far out in fantasy land to be taken with any seriousness. Hope it(18th signal) holds, but won't be surprised when it doesn't. Hoping the 12-13th is something of interest in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 I like the vorticity, hopefuly we can cash in Even it's a late bloomer..enough to blanket the whole region with a couple inches is fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The 13/14th is a late bloomer which is why Cape Cod does well in these setups Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The 13/14th is a late bloomer which is why Cape Cod does well in these setups Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk With 47* ssts, good luck. I like my spot relative to sne....latitude will also be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Umm RY have you seen the Arctic cold coming those SSTs will not impact any temps, unless it's north of the Cape Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The eps ended nicely today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 GFS is too progressive in the Arctic jet stream, PV is too Far East and suppresses everything not with a -NAO Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk James...keep the op model posts in the model thread please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It looks like another round of warming coming up later in the model period at 50-10mb. That will be interesting to watch. Tom, Do you have a link for WAF charts or those cFSR strat wind products? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's definitely not a SSW yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 It's definitely not a SSW yet. I heard it probably won't be as it's just minor warming and of course the Strat is ice cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Something tells me this is going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I heard it probably won't be as it's just minor warming and of course the Strat is ice cold.anything but minor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Something tells me this is going to be fun Excuse my lack of knowledge but wouldn't it be better if we where sub 540?Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Those aren't high heights because of ridging. That's actually a +NAO. It does suggest a good STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Those aren't high heights because of ridging. That's actually a +NAO. It does suggest a good STJ.it is a months means, classic blocking sig imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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