Weather Weenies Rejoice, there is a time period to be happy, a storm with a snow chance seems possible

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Within the next seven days the period of weather we should get is rather warm, mild and wet.  However after day 7 there is a clipper/great lakes low pressure system that is expected to push a cold front through the region on the 27-28th of December.  Weather weenies should start rejoicing because as the GFS op and ensembles have been showing is a negative PNA regime we are in now will turn over towards a positive regime in the last day of December through early January period.  Also with that +PNA regime we have a -EPO regime which means ridging in the EPO region.  This is likely great news as the -30C to -40C type of air gathering in northwest Canada can come raging down into the Great Lakes and Northeastern US.  Why am I more confident in this happening?  Simply the teleconnections support it.  PNA going positive before New Year's Day, the EPO going negative after the 31st and the Arctic Oscillation going negative after New Year's Day.  This signal has been consistent the last few days, and when a signal becomes consistent in the models, so will the snow chances.  We simply have a more amplified pattern with really no sign of a SE ridge in the 7+ day range and really after day 9 we get into the cold and stormy part of the forecast discussion.  GFS has at least three to four storms lined up after the tenth day.  Now the CMC or GEM 00z run shows a clipper diving out of Canada and producing a snowstorm from MN to MI to BUF.  My guess is that it will start showing a mega tilt towards negative as the trough nears the East Coast and allow cyclogenesis to really crank up.  GFS right now handles this bundle of energy much differently, which is why it is ten days out, not one day.

 

The images below from top to bottom are the

00z GFS DEC 22nd 2015 240 h5 prog showing the energy a little east of the CMC at the same hour, image below:

and then the +PNA in the ensembles and operational runs.  SO folks we have a period to look forward to and it isn't just 11-15 days away, its 8 days away.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

One too many Pina coladas at the gtg? I hope your right, but I'm skeptical changes come this quick. Maybe there's a chance to sneak something in but is the pna change permananet?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Within the next seven days the period of weather we should get is rather warm, mild and wet.  However after day 7 there is a clipper/great lakes low pressure system that is expected to push a cold front through the region on the 27-28th of December.  Weather weenies should start rejoicing because as the GFS op and ensembles have been showing is a negative PNA regime we are in now will turn over towards a positive regime in the last day of December through early January period.  Also with that +PNA regime we have a -EPO regime which means ridging in the EPO region.  This is likely great news as the -30C to -40C type of air gathering in northwest Canada can come raging down into the Great Lakes and Northeastern US.  Why am I more confident in this happening?  Simply the teleconnections support it.  PNA going positive before New Year's Day, the EPO going negative after the 31st and the Arctic Oscillation going negative after New Year's Day.  This signal has been consistent the last few days, and when a signal becomes consistent in the models, so will the snow chances.  We simply have a more amplified pattern with really no sign of a SE ridge in the 7+ day range and really after day 9 we get into the cold and stormy part of the forecast discussion.  GFS has at least three to four storms lined up after the tenth day.  Now the CMC or GEM 00z run shows a clipper diving out of Canada and producing a snowstorm from MN to MI to BUF.  My guess is that it will start showing a mega tilt towards negative as the trough nears the East Coast and allow cyclogenesis to really crank up.  GFS right now handles this bundle of energy much differently, which is why it is ten days out, not one day.

 

The images below from top to bottom are the

00z GFS DEC 22nd 2015 240 h5 prog showing the energy a little east of the CMC at the same hour, image below:

and then the +PNA in the ensembles and operational runs.  SO folks we have a period to look forward to and it isn't just 11-15 days away, its 8 days away.

Because

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

No Ray it looks like it will be very cold at the start of January.