Sub_Zero Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Winter Storm Watch up for Toronto. Ottawa too...8''-12'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looks like advisories are coming from IWX...one for ice and another for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Looks like advisories are coming from IWX...one for ice and another for wind. Where did you hear or see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Where did you hear or see that? I could tell you....but then I'd have to kill you. j/k From what I can decipher from the updated PFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I could tell you....but then I'd have to kill you. j/k From what I can decipher from the updated PFM. Ah, got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 LOT went with a high wind warning for Cook/Lake Co's and a wind advisory for the rest of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 @ Hoosier. 18z NAM keeps it AOB freezing until early evening here, then a bit of rain before the snow starts after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 GRR went with a Winter Storm Warning for all of their CWA except the I-94 corridor (which is under a Winter Weather Advisory). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Sitting at 3.80" with another 1-2" on the way. here's some flooding pics from around town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 bring it Monday Night Snow. Patchy blowing snow. Snow may be heavy at times overnight. Snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Lows around 18. Inland...east winds 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast 15 to 20 mph overnight. Near the shore...east winds 15 to 25 mph becoming northeast 20 to 25 mph overnight. Chance of snow 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 LOT upgrading to a WSW, and expanding it southeast to include more counties...including Cook Co. FZRA advisories elsewhere to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Besides Cook...Dupage, Will, Grundy now with a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 Besides Cook...Dupage, Will, Grundy now with a warning. No mention of expected accumulations of sleet/ice mentioned in the WSW areas. 0.10-0.20" ice accrual expected in the advisory area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Was expecting ice storm warnings to be issued, but doesn't look like that's going to happen. Guessing DVN will have to fill in with WS warnings to keep the continuity between Des Moines and Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 Updated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 DTX is going to sit on the current headlines for now, but per the latest AFD, they're leaning towards an Advisory for the areas not under a Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Was expecting ice storm warnings to be issued, but doesn't look like that's going to happen. Guessing DVN will have to fill in with WS warnings to keep the continuity between Des Moines and Chicago. Between the potential for a lot of Sleet to occur in addition to the Freezing Rain, and also the wind aspect, I think it does make more sense to go with a Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 No mention of expected accumulations of sleet/ice mentioned in the WSW areas. 0.10-0.20" ice accrual expected in the advisory area though. You warming up on the ice potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Still waiting for the 18z version of this to update, but here's the 12z RGEM freezing rain forecast. Wide swath of 20mm (0.75") precip as freezing rain, with some areas of 25-30mm (1"+). Northern MO even worse than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Tomorrow has a great chance to overperform or underperform, all depends on how long the ice can hang on, if the RGEM verifies unexpectedly to the NWS offices, then crap will hit the fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 DTX is going to sit on the current headlines for now, but per the latest AFD, they're leaning towards an Advisory for the areas not under a Watch. DTX doesn't do warnings. They do advisories and upgrade them at the last moment. They can always claim victory that way. I won't let em get away with it though, they busted HARD on Nov 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Bust potential here is with sleet amounts..more sleet and we get shafted... hoping for a nice 10 inch snow total. Too bad nothing is frozen yet so still won't be able to get out snowshoeing on the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I won't let em get away with it though, they busted HARD on Nov 21st. What you gon' do 'bout it? TP their office? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 LOT... 348 PM CST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIFT OUT AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH DEEPENING AND QUICKLY MOVING SURFACE LOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE DRAWN NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPTIATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE VERY TRICKY AS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING LIKELY KNOCK SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AS THE PRECIP SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL P-TYPE WILL PROBABLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MOST AREAS...THOUGH SNOW CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THE ONSET BEFORE VERY STRONG WAA ALOFT RESULTS IN A SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER DEVELOPING. CONTINUED WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PRECIP GRADAULLY TRANSITIONING FROM SLEET TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION AND WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE WHERE THE WORST IMPACTS FROM THE STORM END UP BEING. COULD EVEN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE PRECIP WHICH COULD PLAY ADDITIONAL HAVOC IN P-TYPE. WINDS OFF THE LAKE WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WARMING MORE QUICKLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ILLINOIS LAKE FRONT. ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS STORM WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WINDS. GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS IN EXCESS OF 10MB IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY NORTH INTO THE MIDWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREDIBLY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SEVERAL HOUR LONG WINDOW OF GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PRESSURE FALL MAXIMA LIFTING NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LESSER FRICTION AND BETTER MIXING DUE TO LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 50-60 MPH FOR A COUPLE HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A SEPARATE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR IL LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD AND SINCE THE TIMING OF THE WIND PRECIP REALLY DIDNT JUXTAPOSE NICELY ENOUGH TO JUST HANDLE IT ALL IN A WINTER STORM WARNING. ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY SOUTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AS ICING POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MORE OF A MORNING ISSUE WHILE HIGH WINDS ARE MORE MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY A VERY COMPLICATED SCENARIO TO DEAL WITH HEADLINE- WISE. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION WITH THE WIND IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM WHERE ICE/WIND ALLIGN THE BEST. HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR...BUT ANYWHERE THAT DOES SEE MORE SUBSTANTIAL ICE ACCRETTION COULD END UP WITH REALLY BIG PROBLEMS DUE TO HIGH WINDS TAKING DOWN TREE LIMBS. IF WE HAD HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ICE ACCRETTION WILL BE HIGHEST WE WOULD HAVE GONE WITH AN ICE STORM WARNING...BUT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 1/2 OR MORE OF SLEET AND GREATER THAN A 1/4 OF ICE IS REALLY SPLITTING HAIRS TOO FINELY AT THIS DISTANCE AND OPTED TO GO WITH THE MORE GENERIC WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MOST AT RISK. PRECIPITATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY EVENING NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER ALLOWING ANY REMAINING PRECIP TO CHANGE TO RAIN. STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE OUR MONDAY EVENING. SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LAKESHORE FLOODING...GIVEN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF EAST WINDS TOMORROW ONTO THE ILLINOIS SHORE...ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS SHORTER EAST FETCH/60-80 MILES/VERSUS WHAT IS POSSIBLE IN A FULL NORTHERLY FETCH EVENT. NONETHELESS... EAST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 55 TO 60 MPH WILL CAUSE VERY LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES ON TOP OF STORM SURGE. TODAY'S STRONG NORTH WINDS HAVE ALREADY RESULTED IN ABOUT A 1 FOOT STORM SURGE AND CONTINUED STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD LARGELY MAINTAIN THESE LAKE LEVELS. TODAY'S NORTH WIND EVENT TODAY HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN REPORTS OF OVERWASH ON S-CURVES IN CHICAGO BIKE PATH. CONSIDERING THIS...WAVES UP TO AROUND 20 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING LOOK TO CAUSE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKESHORE FLOODING EPISODE SINCE THE HALLOWEEN 2014 EVENT EVEN WITH A SHORTER EAST FETCH. IT IS LIKELY MOST FLOOD PRONE SECTIONS OF THE CHICAGO LAKEFRONT BIKE PATH WILL BE COMPLETELY FLOODED AND THERE COULD EVEN BE FLOODING ISSUES ON FLOOD PRONE SECTIONS OF LAKE SHORE DRIVE. IZZI/RLC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 What you gon' do 'bout it? TP their office? My father (general public) thought we were going to get 2-4 inches within 12 hours of the event. I had to inform him personally that the NWS was low balling and even I lowballed it in the end. They could have just issued the warning, but they wanted to play it safe and avoid the bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 You warming up on the ice potential? Not yet. Still thinking some sleet and a glaze of ice (<0.10") here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Thinking 1/3-1/2" of glaze here/QC. Before that quite a bit of sleet should accumulate, but forecasting sleet amounts is pretty difficult. I'd guess 1/2-1" of sleet at this point based on 3:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2015 Author Share Posted December 27, 2015 18z RGEM showing the biggest ice potential thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yeah this could be ugly for someone, on the plus side if it keeps ticking south, your area might end up with more sleet and snow. My power drop from Consumers runs through an old willow three that's seriously rotted out at the bottom. Consumers has a blue X on it for four years now. They never cut it when they went through here three years ago and the two year long telephone war that ensued with their forestry department has done no good. IF we get worst case scenario (gusts over 35 and .4" of ice) that thing is probably coming down, and our drop with it. They were supposed to be out again this past summer, but they weren't and the same old circle jerk with them gets old. At least if it comes down, my generator is ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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