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December 25-29th Storm Disco


Chicago Storm

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Where did this threat even come from? Confluence on the SW side of the massive +NAO keeping low level cold locked in as the cutoff moves NE...interesting setup.

 

-EPO is helping.

Strong high to the north is acting to road block it.

post-46-0-46553900-1450989929.png

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Texas panhandle road trip  :snowing:

 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  306 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015     ..DANGEROUS WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE WEEKEND    A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PULL  ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. MUCH  COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A  PROLONGED WINTER STORM BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING   LATE MONDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...HEAVY SNOW AND A  WINTRY MIX AT TIMES WILL LIKELY CREATE TREACHEROUS TRAVEL  CONDITIONS AND COULD SUSPEND TRAVEL ALTOGETHER.    TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040-251400-  /O.NEW.KLUB.BZ.A.0001.151227T0000Z-151228T1800Z/  PARMER-CASTRO-BAILEY-LAMB-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-YOAKUM-TERRY-  INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...FARWELL...DIMMITT...  HART...MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...MORTON...LEVELLAND...  DENVER CITY...PLAINS...BROWNFIELD  306 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015    ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY  MORNING...    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD  WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY  MORNING.     * WINDS AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH    FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND    BLOWING SNOW COULD FALL TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.    * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WIDESPREAD 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH HEAVIER    SWATHS POSSIBLE. SNOW DRIFTS UP TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.  
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Things sure warm up fast:

 

 

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Surface low approaching with warming temps aloft, but you still have strong easterly low flow in northern Indiana/Ohio at 108 hours.  Normally it's a good bet to side with warm air advection winning out on the quicker side but I wonder if the surface temp response would lag a little behind what the model is indicating.

 

 

post-14-0-16490000-1450995965_thumb.png

 

 

post-14-0-85765700-1450995973_thumb.png

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IND is talking 3-6 inches of rain with this system from Indpls south.  With winds currently being progged I certainly would not want to see ice anywhere in our subforum with this one.

 

 

 

Wide area of sustained 25-30 mph and gust 40-50 mph potential on the 18z GFS, moving south to north in concert with the freezing rain. 

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Most of the DGEX's snow area will be ice, I haven't seen a DGEX run this far out, even close to verify in ages.

If you post the DGEX, you must be desperate for snow.

 

I believe that was Chinook's point, hahaha  :lmao:

 

Most of the NWS offices in the potential ice zone have introduced either wintry mix or freezing rain probs to their forecasts next week. Now to see what happens, the thought of a decent amount of ice accumulation + 40-50mph winds is a little disturbing especially for post-Christmas traveling. 

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I believe that was Chinook's point, hahaha  :lmao:

 

Most of the NWS offices in the potential ice zone have introduced either wintry mix or freezing rain probs to their forecasts next week. Now to see what happens, the thought of a decent amount of ice accumulation + 40-50mph winds is a little disturbing especially for post-Christmas traveling.

 

And where it does remain all snow (or in areas that see a decent front-end thumping), B-word conditions would become an issue assuming those winds were realized

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