jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...EXTREME WRN KY...EXTREME SERN MO...EXTREME SRN IL... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING MDT RISK FROM NRN LA TO MIDDLE TN AND SRN PORTIONS INDIANA/IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ARKLATEX REGIONS TO SRN APPALACHIANS...SRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING SLGT RISK AND EXTENDING EWD TO MUCH OF CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL...WILL BE FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SOME RISK FOR ALL THOSE SEVERE-WEATHER THREATS EXISTS TODAY ELSEWHERE OVER A VAST SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. SEVERE WEATHER MAY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION TONIGHT. A MARGINAL SEVERE-STORM THREAT EXISTS FARTHER EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. ...SYNOPSIS... MIDDLE/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TODAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS AND ASSOCIATED BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM PAC COAST TO SRN PLAINS...MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN KS...WRN OK AND NW TX -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD TO IL...SERN MO AND NRN AR BY 00Z. AT SFC...COMPLEX PATTERN WAS EVIDENT IN 11Z ANALYSIS WITH LOW OVER E-CENTRAL KS...COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN MO. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THERE ESEWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY AND NRN KY. LOW SHOULD MOVE NEWD TO WI BY 00Z...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS SERN MO...SERN OK...AND W-CENTRAL TX. BY THEN...DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS WI/LOWER MI TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...AHEAD OF RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE PLUME THAT SHOULD REACH MUCH OF IL/INDIANA AND PERHAPS OH. LOW-LEVEL WARM-FRONTAL ZONE ALSO IS LIFTING NWD ACROSS PORTIONS GA/CAROLINAS...REINFORCED BY EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE PLUME THAT EXTENDS FROM AL TO ERN NC. SURFACE MANIFESTATION OF THAT BOUNDARY -- NOW NEAR SC/NC COAST -- SHOULD MOVE INLAND TODAY. ...MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY STATES TO TN VALLEY... SCATTERED TSTMS IN BKN BANDS AND DISCRETE MODES SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...OFFERING RISKS FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCNL LARGE HAIL. GREATEST POTENTIAL CONCENTRATION OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE...CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN CORRIDOR FROM SERN AR/WRN MS NNEWD TOWARD SRN IL...FROM MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN. MULTIPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA...WHOSE TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACCORDINGLY HAVE BEEN UPGRADED...MEETING THRESHOLD FOR CATEGORICAL MDT RISK. THIS THREAT WILL BE MANIFEST ONCE EXISTING PRECIP ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THIS AREA -- OVER ERN AR -- HAS SHIFTED NEWD AND DIABATIC HEATING BEGINS TO BOOST BUOYANCY...AMIDST ROUGHLY 60 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND EFFECTIVE SRH GENERALLY 250-400 J/KG. MLCAPE VALUES MAY REACH 1000-2000 J/KG OVER ERN AR...NRN MS AND MEM AREA THIS AFTN...DECREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER SRN IL. BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...BUT COUNTERACTED TO SOME EXTENT BY GREATER CINH AND LESS WELL-FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL FORCING. WITH NRN EXTENT...STG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST BUT BUOYANCY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE LIMITED. AS SUCH..PROBABILITIES TAPER NWD AND SWD FROM MDT-RISK AREA. ...LA TO AL AND SRN APPALACHIANS... POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DEEP-SHEAR/INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSITION WILL EXIST ACROSS GULF COAST STATES FROM LA TO AL TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND EPISODES OF TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FULL RANGE OF ASSOCIATED SVR HAZARDS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH SEWD EXTENT FROM CURRENT MDT-RISK AREA...HOWEVER...GIVEN PRESENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING... 1. COVERAGE OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION AMIDST NEBULOUS BOUNDARY-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT... 2. NET HEIGHT RISES ALOFT...WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL UPPER PERTURBATIONS EVIDENT UPSTREAM ONCE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES NW-N OF AREA.. 3. FRAGMENTED CAPE SPACE DUE TO BOTH ANTECEDENT TSTMS AND ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM INLAND FROM GULF. NONETHELESS...WIDESPREAD SWATH OF AT LEAST SLGT SVR RISK IS APPARENT. ONCE MESOSCALE FACTORS THAT WILL STRONGLY REGULATE SVR THREAT OVER LOWER DELTA TO AL CAN BE DIAGNOSED WITH MORE CLARITY...SOME OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE PROBABILISTIC UPGRADE. ...GA/CAROLINAS... ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER SERN NC...NEAR INTERSECTION OF MOSTLY OFFSHORE CONFLUENCE BAND WITH NWD-RETREATING/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE...MAY POSE RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS OR TORNADO. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2031 FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED MHX/CHS RAOBS AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST MRGL TORNADO RISK AND ISOLATED SVR GUSTS FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH LATE AFTN ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARIES. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH MARITIME RETURN FLOW SHOULD OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...WITH AROUND 150 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH AND 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES POSSIBLE. ANY RELATIVE CONCENTRATIONS OF MESOSCALE FOCI THAT MAY DEVELOP COULD LEAD TO UPGRADE OF PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichelleH Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Dr. Forbes of TWC now has a TORCON of 8 for North Mississippi and North Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Dr. Forbes of TWC now has a TORCON of 8 for North Mississippi and North Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND...WRN AND CNTRL KY....SERN MO....ERN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN....NRN MS AND FAR NWRN AL... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST AND SRN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A FEW INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ...SYNOPSIS... A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO ARKLATEX WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KS WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NEWD TO CNTRL WI BY 24/00Z PRIOR TO REACHING CNTRL ONTARIO BY 12Z/THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WITH THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THE FRONT ADVANCING MORE SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER-MS VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL LA TO ALONG THE MS/AL COASTS AND THEN NEWD THROUGH E-CNTRL GA INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP NWD/NWWD IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS. ...OH VALLEY INTO THE TN AND LOWER-MS VALLEYS... MULTIPLE BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING FROM SRN IL TO CNTRL AR WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...POLEWARD FLUXES OF HEAT AND MOISTURE ALONG A BROADENING/STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 250-500 J/KG ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO AS HIGH AS 1500-2500 J/KG OVER THE LOWER-MS VALLEY WHERE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESIDE. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER DATA IN SUGGESTING THAT THE BOWING STRUCTURE OVER SERN MO/NERN AR WILL CONTINUE NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. FARTHER SW OVER ERN AR INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS...THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES. THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME --FEATURING REGENERATIVE/BACKBUILDING STORMS-- WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO LOWER-MS VALLEY WHERE A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. ...CNTRL GULF COAST INTO CAROLINA PIEDMONT... THE INLAND FLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL FOSTER AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ACTIVITY LARGELY BEING FOCUSED ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP NWD/NWWD. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COINCIDENT WITH THE ERN EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ATTENDANT TO THE CNTRL U.S. SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ...MID-MS VALLEY... AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO WRN IL...ALONG THE CHANNEL OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDING THE UPPER-AIR SYSTEM. POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL YIELD MLCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG AMIDST STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. AS SUCH THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 45 hatched wind added for KY and TN on 1630 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NERN LA...NRN MS...WEST TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 231658Z - 231900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN AR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TN/MS/LA...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SO FAR...DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER NORTHERN LA. MULTIPLE CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE GENERATION ZONE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL VAD PROFILES SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE A CONCERN IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 i'm hearing at least an 18z sounding at SIL. any word where else are they putting them up? I'm thinking DVN, ILX, SGF, LZK/LIT, SHV, LCH, JAN, BMX/CKL, BNA/OHX, ILN, GRB, and DTX to get the surrounding environment as well as the center of the action. but that's my thoughts, not what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This storm in Arkansas is starting to get a hook look to it and is moving into excellent conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichelleH Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 New PDS tornado watch out! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0559.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 PDS URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 559 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WESTERN TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 800 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...ONGOING SEVERE STORMS EAST OF LITTLE ROCK SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION. ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES EAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 PDS...wow....will be interesting to see if that verifies. For those of you interested, Cheeznado of SE Forum fame is out chasing with some folks and they are live streaming on StormScapeLIVE.TV they are just south of Memphis right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR...MO...IL...IND...KY...TN...AL...MS... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN LA TO SWRN OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO SRN LOWER MI...AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO NRN LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A FEW INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ...DISCUSSION... A FEW ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO 1630Z OUTLOOK...1) INCREASE SEVERE PROBS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER 2) INCREASE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. 1. LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING CU FIELD AHEAD OF SFC LOW FROM THE IA/MO BORDER...SWD INTO CNTRL MO. WHILE LIGHTNING HAS YET TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS TSTMS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION AS CONVECTION DEEPENS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION AND A PLUME OF STEEP SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NUDGING INTO CNTRL MO. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE A BIT FARTHER NW THAN EARLIER INDICATED. 2. OUTFLOW IS SURGING EWD ALONG LEADING EDGE OF LONG-LIVED MCS OVER SC. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG NRN EXTENT OF THIS LINE. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVANCING NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ACROSS THE MDT RISK...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL AR...NEWD INTO WRN KY. TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...IN LINE WITH EARLIER THOUGHTS. ..DARROW.. 12/23/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 PDS...wow....will be interesting to see if that verifies. For those of you interested, Cheeznado of SE Forum fame is out chasing with some folks and they are live streaming on StormScapeLIVE.TV they are just south of Memphis right now. Yeah, finally seeing some popcorn pop ahead but that's about all is right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Rotation on that cell east of Colt,Ark Edit:WESTof Colt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 System seems to be slowing down a hair,doesn't look like it will pass through Nashville until around 10,that might even be generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Low level shear on the HRRR starts to ramp up around 3,maybe we will start to see something in W/TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air Traffic Control Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Just got into a tornado watch here. The sky is still rather overcast, overall. It's still very humid and muggy. They just tested the local tornado sirens about 3 hours ago. If anything changes from OVC, I'll be sure to snap some more pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Just got into a tornado watch here. The sky is still rather overcast, overall. It's still very humid and muggy. They just tested the local tornado sirens about 3 hours ago. If anything changes from OVC, I'll be sure to snap some more pics. Testing a tornado system during a severe threat isn't a smart thing to do..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Looking like things will pick up within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yeah the lower shear should start to start kicking this MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WEST TN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 559... VALID 232049Z - 232215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 559 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER EASTERN AR...ALONG A LINE FROM WEST OF PAH - BYH - WEST OF MEM. SEVERAL STORMS ALONG THE LINE HAVE DEVELOPED PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL /UP TO BASEBALL SIZE/. LOCAL RADARS INDICATE THAT STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THESE STORMS...AND SO FAR THE TORNADO RISK HAS BEEN LIMITED. THE VAD PROFILE AT MEM SHOWS INTENSE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES NOW OVER 700 M2/S2. SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 60S INTO WEST TN IS YIELDING SUFFICIENT MLCAPE VALUES TO MAINTAIN A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER WEST TN AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 559 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCLUDING MORE OF MIDDLE TN AND NORTHWEST AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Strong rotation running parallel with I-55 in North East Arkansas, east of Manila. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air Traffic Control Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yup, WarEagle. It's a standard alarm that is tested every Wed at noon, though. Needless to say, when it did go off, a few heads popped out to see if anything was up, before they realized it was the test. And speaking of the devil, the clouds have all of a sudden broke. It was OVC for up until 15-30 min ago. EDIT: TVN has a chaser on a tornado on the ground over Clarksdale, MS. It's right on them! Two of them apparently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 its' seen on the memphis tdwr near Marks and Hinchcliff approaching MS Hwy3 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST FOR CENTRAL QUITMAN COUNTY... AT 325 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BELEN...OR 13 MILES EAST OF CLARKSDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... DARLING AROUND 335 PM CST. SLEDGE AROUND 340 PM CST. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE RIVERVIEW...FALCON...HINCHCLIFF...WEST MARKS...BARKSDALE AND ESSEX. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 335 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 415 PM CST * AT 335 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CURTIS STATION...OR 15 MILES WEST OF BATESVILLE... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... PLEASANT GROVE AROUND 345 PM CST. SARDIS AND COMO AROUND 355 PM CST. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BALLENTINE...LOCKE STATION...HORATIO...GLENVILLE...MC GHEE AND HAYES CROSSING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 wow,they got the traffic blocked and a tornado headed right towards the traffic,not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 put on Brandon Clement,TVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783596 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air Traffic Control Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I have a coworker who lives in that area, and got a picture from afar. It was still a multi-vortex wedge. He is saying that it is continuously lifting and dropping over the hilly terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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