Harry Perry Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 HRRR is showing quite the LEWP for NW OH/SE MI That's down right nasty... Not going to take much for damaging winds in today's setup. Even the showers that develop could drop hefty gusty winds. If we we're to get what the HRRR is showing, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zestylabs Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 currently sitting just on the south of indianapolis metro.... figuring out where to go from here. would appreciate suggestions, not familiar with the terrain this far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 You definitely don't want to get into the southern In hills...Brown County, etc. I'd angle west on I-70 towards Terre Haute and wait for cells in southern IL to come up this way. There's a tor warned cell sw of Cape Girardeau MO moving ne at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Storms are popping in Louisiana... there's 3000-3500 CAPE ahead of them with thinning clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 MDT extended to the northeast. ENH trimmed from the northwest and extended to the east of the MDT risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Moderate extended northeast into Kentucky DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND...WRN AND CNTRL KY....SERN MO....ERN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN....NRN MS AND FAR NWRN AL... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO GULF COAST AND SRN MID-ATLANTIC... ..SUMMARY AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A FEW INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ..SYNOPSIS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO ARKLATEX WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KS WILL CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NEWD TO CNTRL WI BY 24/00Z PRIOR TO REACHING CNTRL ONTARIO BY 12Z/THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WITH THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THE FRONT ADVANCING MORE SLOWLY INTO THE LOWER-MS VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CNTRL LA TO ALONG THE MS/AL COASTS AND THEN NEWD THROUGH E-CNTRL GA INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP NWD/NWWD IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS. ..OH VALLEY INTO THE TN AND LOWER-MS VALLEYS MULTIPLE BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING FROM SRN IL TO CNTRL AR WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...POLEWARD FLUXES OF HEAT AND MOISTURE ALONG A BROADENING/STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ WILL ALLOW FOR THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 250-500 J/KG ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO AS HIGH AS 1500-2500 J/KG OVER THE LOWER-MS VALLEY WHERE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESIDE. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER DATA IN SUGGESTING THAT THE BOWING STRUCTURE OVER SERN MO/NERN AR WILL CONTINUE NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. FARTHER SW OVER ERN AR INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS...THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHERE THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW INTENSE...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES. THIS CONVECTIVE REGIME --FEATURING REGENERATIVE/BACKBUILDING STORMS-- WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO LOWER-MS VALLEY WHERE A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST. ..CNTRL GULF COAST INTO CAROLINA PIEDMONT THE INLAND FLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL FOSTER AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ACTIVITY LARGELY BEING FOCUSED ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP NWD/NWWD. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COINCIDENT WITH THE ERN EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ATTENDANT TO THE CNTRL U.S. SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MID-MS VALLEY AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF ERN MO INTO WRN IL...ALONG THE CHANNEL OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDING THE UPPER-AIR SYSTEM. POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL YIELD MLCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG AMIDST STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. AS SUCH THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 45 hatched wind in KY/TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 That's a pretty large MDT area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 15% Hail Prob also added to W IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 15% Hail Prob also added to W IL. attn: hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Another decent couplet within the LEWP in C. IL. This time this one is tor warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... * LOCATIONS... WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTHERN INDIANA SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EASTERN ARKANSAS NORTHWEST ALABAMA * HAZARDS... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, SOME HURRICANE FORCE SEVERAL TORNADOES, A FEW INTENSE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL * SUMMARY... AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A FEW INTENSE, LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1115 AM CST * AT 1050 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF CHATSWORTH...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF PIPER CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Blinding rain and just heard a crack of thunder here. Have severe weather wording in my grid forecast for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 That squall entering Illinois is forming an MCS look. Pretty crazy considering the time of year. And, true to the time of year, it's racing by. Tornado warning says it's heading northeast at 70 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo19 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Been watching this closely, sure is going to be an interesting day to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 High quality storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Wind is howling here in advance of that little line segment...gotta be getting 40 mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif That's pretty crazy, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Some damage reports from where two of the more distinct couplets moved through E-C. IL earlier... 1035 AM TSTM WND DMG FOOSLAND 40.35N 88.42W 12/23/2015 CHAMPAIGN IL COUNTY OFFICIAL SIX POWER-LINE POLES DOWN 1004 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 N WELDON 40.16N 88.75W 12/23/2015 DE WITT IL BROADCAST MEDIA GRAIN BIN THROWN INTO A FIELD. 0957 AM TSTM WND DMG SW OAKLEY 39.85N 88.82W 12/23/2015 MACON IL EMERGENCY MNGR HOUSE SHINGLES BLOWN OFF TOW SHEDS BLOWN DOWN. 0958 AM TSTM WND DMG OAKLEY 39.85N 88.82W 12/23/2015 MACON IL BROADCAST MEDIA ROOF PARTIALLY TORN OFF A CHURCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Just went under a severe thunderstorm warning here in LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Last December tornado in the LOT cwa? December 4, 1973 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Man this line is bringing it...quality downpour/gusts for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 PDS tornado watch 90/80 tor probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WESTERN TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 800 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...ONGOING SEVERE STORMS EAST OF LITTLE ROCK SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION. ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE TO LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES EAST OF MONROE LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The Tornado warned storm in Arkansas looking more supercellular in nature now. Might see some more discrete rotators in the near future start to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 First PDS Tornado Watch of the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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