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January Med/Long Range Discussion


North Balti Zen

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It has been a terrible winter so far, we've had 0 threats to be excited about. Let us enjoy it. The 12z EURO had a very similar setup, it just moved the 50/50 low westward towards the end (which doesn't make sense with a W based block)...The 18z GFS shows you what can happen when you lock in a 50/50 like that.

 

Honestly, the setup for this event on the GFS starts Day 6 when the energy crashes into the West Coast and the 50/50 ULL begins to form. 

 

IMO this is the first legit LR threat we've had all season. 

I meant it as a positive, the 18z almost brought a tear to my eye

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Yep.  the 18Z actually is faster withe the northern stream initially but also has more negative heights near Nova Scotia.  That's a positive.  today's 18Z GFS pretty much shows why you can't say anything definitive about snow 10 days out no matter what the models say.   It now shows snow at least for the western suburbs for Jan 17th and if you look at the anomalies has more of a negative anomaly near Nova Scotia than the earlier runs.  That doesn't mean we get snow,  it only means that at that time range,  we still don't know enough about all the players to make a call.  Based on the storm track, I still think we have a hard road to hoe but not an impossible one. The mddels often have problems handling the northern stream. 

 

Wes, I thought the 12z euro ens made a nice step with heights near NS. I personally thought d10-15 mean was the best I've seen all years in regards to the pieces being in the right place in general. 

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Just out of curiosity, how close to pd 2 would this storm be if it happened like this?

 

PDII was mostly a very moist overrunning event in our area that had a very strong Arctic high but not much of a coastal.

 

This storm as shown on the latest GFS looks like an explosive noreaster with a 973 low.

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Weeklies still show block breaking down but it breaks down into someting not horrible at least in the means. Wxbell looks a little close to meh by day 20+ but hasn't finished coming out and I think weeklies strength has been more with the STJ and such since we lost the torchcember look at range there. Also first time I remember seeing above avg precip in a while.. Week 3.. Jan 25-Feb 1. Week prior is just offshore, week after is a bit of a suppressed look which kind of matches the weeklies pattern by then.

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PDII was mostly a very moist overrunning event in our area that had a very strong Arctic high but not much of a coastal.

This storm as shown on the latest GFS looks like an explosive noreaster with a 973 low.

That was my recollection as well. I remembered it being a very strong CAD situation. I was on the wrong side of the CAD though. I was so jealous.

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That was my recollection as well. I remembered it being a very strong CAD situation. I was on the wrong side of the CAD though. I was so jealous.

Haven't added to page yet since I posted it early y-day for Blizz of 96 action but it barely even looks like a storm.. :P

http://www.ianlivingston.com/d-c-s-double-digit-snowstorms-a-guide-to-their-development-and-the-patterns-that-produced-them/

 

St0OFwI.png

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During the storm, if someone could analysis on this map, that would be great. Could someone tell me what about this image makes this the GFS show the particular solution. 

 

gfs_z500a_namer_41.png

 

West based NAO is in a great spot, and unlike other runs, this one has a nice 50/50 low (a vortex near Newfoundland which is crucial for holding in cold air during an East coast snowstorm)

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