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klw

NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1

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:ski:

Didn't see that one when I was looking through the display, that's awesome.

Snowing at Loon also per a shot on their Facebook about half an hour ago.

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Down to 36.8F and dropping fast (-3.1F/hr). Is it possible we get a little flakage?

 

Temps have dropped -4°F in the last hour here

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Yeah, I'm going to have to update to at least put a small amount of accumulation south of the mountains it looks like.

 

Model guidance was fairly horrible when it came to mid level temps today. Nothing came close to capturing the rapidity of cooling. I ended up just shifting everything 6 hours earlier.

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Will precip fill back in? It pretty much stopped here after the flip...

 

 

 

Yeah, I'm going to have to update to at least put a small amount of accumulation south of the mountains it looks like.

 

Model guidance was fairly horrible when it came to mid level temps today. Nothing came close to capturing the rapidity of cooling. I ended up just shifting everything 6 hours earlier.

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Will precip fill back in? It pretty much stopped here after the flip...

 

Don't think it will. The main band is pulling east now. You might catch a stray snow shower or two tonight that sneaks over the ridgeline once the upslope really gets going.

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Thought so... thank you!

 

Don't think it will. The main band is pulling east now. You might catch a stray snow shower or two tonight that sneaks over the ridgeline once the upslope really gets going.

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Likely a little toooooo wet, but the I'll take it for 12hr precip. Certainly the overall flow supports this sort of gradient. If it were actually cold, this would be awesome. With the marginal snow growth temps and non-frozen ground, this feels like a 3-4" type snow today....mostly above 1500ft...which is all I care about.

attachicon.gif12.3.15 12hr precip.JPG

2-3" on the ground and it's ramped back up.

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Incredibly tight snow gradient from a total pasting at 1,550ft but almost nothing at 1,300-1,400ft.

 

3" at 1,550ft where these photos were taken:

 

Dec3d_zps9g4w62gz.jpg

 

Dec3b_zpsthfsmle0.jpg

 

Dec3a_zps4pnwm4pv.jpg

 

 

 

After spending 9 hours today in a full on snowstorm, I left work and within 30 seconds down the road it was all just a memory.  Rain/snow mix with no accumulations below 1,350ft.

 

Dec3e_zpsltbuizpp.jpg

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It is precipitating quite steadily here in town and keeps mixing with everything from fat flakes to graupel.

 

Nice streamer of upslope echoes coming right down Mountain Road/RT 108...

 

Dec_3_zpsyfs3oebv.gif

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WVL was reporting -SN and 33 at 3 PM.  Saw a 2 PM Facebook pic from Farmington with -SN and perhaps 1/2" OG - at about 925' however, which promises little for my place at 385'.

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Incredibly tight snow gradient from a total pasting at 1,550ft but almost nothing at 1,300-1,400ft.

 

3" at 1,550ft where these photos were taken:

 

Dec3d_zps9g4w62gz.jpg

 

Dec3b_zpsthfsmle0.jpg

 

Dec3a_zps4pnwm4pv.jpg

 

 

 

After spending 9 hours today in a full on snowstorm, I left work and within 30 seconds down the road it was all just a memory.  Rain/snow mix with no accumulations below 1,350ft.

 

Dec3e_zpsltbuizpp.jpg

 

I was about to post the same thing going from Jeffersonville to Smuggs to ski today. The gradient was very sharp. I would say within 200ft of elevation change. It went from the misery of bare ground and mud to a beautiful winter scene. The snow was steady at Smuggs but no overly heavy. I would say at the base 2 inches or so accumulated with perhaps a little more at 2000-2500 ft. The snow lightened up to almost nothing but a few needles at the summit of Sterling (just over 3,000ft). Madonna is not open yet.

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I was about to post the same thing going from Jeffersonville to Smuggs to ski today. The gradient was very sharp. I would say within 200ft of elevation change. It went from the misery of bare ground and mud to a beautiful winter scene. The snow was steady at Smuggs but no overly heavy. I would say at the base 2 inches or so accumulated with perhaps a little more at 2000-2500 ft. The snow lightened up to almost nothing but a few needles at the summit of Sterling (just over 3,000ft). Madonna is not open yet.

 

Yeah it was crazy how it was full winter storm all day at the office but less than a mile down the road it was grass.

 

How late were you able to stay?  Smuggs snow report says 3-5" of new snow today, so sounds similar to this side where there was a pasty 3-4".  To be honest it didn't seem that elevation dependent once above the snow line...like 3" at 1,500ft and 3.5" at 3,000ft type of a deal.

 

Got to enjoy it as it looks like it may be a little while before we see another snowy day, haha.

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Just barely got into the action down here in the NW Lakes Region of NH.  Rainshowers changed to snowshowers this AM and continued lightly all day with some pokes of sun.  Stayed around 35-36F at the house at 1100 feet.  Just as the sunset the vis improved enough for me to see the hills over 1800 feet were lightly snow covered.  Had some errands down at Newfound Lake level and just plain rainshowers 600 feet below me.

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BTV's map:

03DEC15B.jpg

 

 

Thanks for posting the map, pretty decent all in all, and probably fairly consistent with the additional accumulations mentioned below:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 259 PM EST THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN

ACROSS FAR DOWNEAST MAINE WHILE SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTH

COUNTRY. TRAILING MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL LOW

IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL ALSO BE CONTINUING

OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND MTN SNOW

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AREAWIDE. MOIST LOW-LEVEL

CONDITIONS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW STILL

RESULTING IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN

HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA PER MOSAIC COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY...BUT

RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE SINCE 18Z. LOW- LEVEL NWLY FLOW

REGIME WILL MAINTAIN OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN

GREEN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THIS EVENING (THRU 01Z-

02Z)...AFTER WHICH TIME WE LOSS CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AS SHORTWAVE

RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY ENDED

IN THE VALLEYS ALREADY...WITH JUST A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES OR

FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS YIELDING SOME BREAKS IN

THE OVERCAST EAST OF THE ADRIONDACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS

WELL. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL GENERALLY CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE

1000-1200FT...AS VALLEY TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S THROUGH

THIS EVENING. ABOVE 1000-1200FT...AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 1"

SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH 2-3" ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL POSSIBLE AT

THE HIGHER SUMMITS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S TO

LOWER 30S...BUT A FEW SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE LOWER 20S

WHERE SOME CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN NW AROUND

10 MPH...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO

THE AREA AND P-GRADIENT WEAKENS.

 

There has been some additional moisture pushing into the area on radar:

 

03DEC15B.gif

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Thanks for posting the map, pretty decent all in all, and probably fairly consistent with the additional accumulations mentioned below:

There has been some additional moisture pushing into the area on radar:

 

03DEC15B.gif

 

I'm impressed with that colored radar from wunderground...picking up the mix or rain in the RT 100 corridor and then also through the Winooski Valley, while keeping elevations above 1,000ft as blue/snow.

 

There was a little lull there but now its starting to rain and graupel again.

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I'm impressed with that colored radar from wunderground...picking up the mix or rain in the RT 100 corridor and then also through the Winooski Valley, while keeping elevations above 1,000ft as blue/snow.

There was a little lull there but now its starting to rain and graupel again.

Shows how warm the pattern is when Stowe is raining AFTER a cold front in December.

The amazing thing to me is we just had a cutter with a windy cold FROPA, and it was still close to 50F here today, and the next two days should reach 48-50F. 850s are barely below 0C even after a cold front, like the opposite of Dec 2010 when cold fronts brought us from 55F to 15F twice.

Reminds me of Jan-Mar 2010 in Middlebury when we couldn't register one below normal day despite several cold fronts.

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Yeah it was crazy how it was full winter storm all day at the office but less than a mile down the road it was grass.

 

How late were you able to stay?  Smuggs snow report says 3-5" of new snow today, so sounds similar to this side where there was a pasty 3-4".  To be honest it didn't seem that elevation dependent once above the snow line...like 3" at 1,500ft and 3.5" at 3,000ft type of a deal.

 

Got to enjoy it as it looks like it may be a little while before we see another snowy day, haha.

 

I got to stay until around 2pm and I don't think they were exaggerating that at all. That seems reasonable. Here are 3 shots I got from there via cell phone today:

12301527_10102993315728199_6730547479379

 

12345498_10102993315743169_6233118135203

 

12314508_10102993315738179_8422647370118

 

I would be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about this winter and it's possibility to suck but I hope things pick up down the road. 

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