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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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Had 2.33", most coming 3-9 PM yesterday.  Sandy is running about 12,000 cfs (still ice in the Mercer gauge) and the Kennebec is forecast to get just over flood stage in AUG - would only wash part of the lowest parking lot.  Winds were moderate here, maybe gusting to 30.  Still white ground at home, about 4" at the stake, but in AUG just patches and piles, with the lawns bare.

 

TS 8:30-8:45 last evening would rate 2-of-10 in July but was pretty neat for January, only the 2nd Jan thunder I've had since moving to Maine on 1/23/73.  Other one was 1/9/78 in Ft. Kent, part of a 4-day sequence that saw temps go from -28 to 46 to -32.  That TS hit about the same time in the evening as yesterday's, and the temp dropped from 41 to 17 in less than an hour.

 

Edit:  Must've been quite the sudden gust to rip that oak out of the ground.  Nice smooth bark is a sign of a vigorous (before yesterday) tree, but the lack of big roots sticking out of the rootwad is puzzling for a tree of that size.

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The CPV isn't expecting much this week but at least the ski areas should get a few inches. The downside is the Euro is pointing to at least a partial cutter this weekend now, before a transfer to the GOM. That would introduce p-type problems for a time. We shall see.

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The CPV isn't expecting much this week but at least the ski areas should get a few inches. The downside is the Euro is pointing to at least a partial cutter this weekend now, before a transfer to the GOM. That would introduce p-type problems for a time. We shall see.

 

The snow across the higher terrain this week is looking less exciting. 

 

Frankly, i'm not surprised by any cutters at this point. That's the pattern for the winter. Why should it change now?

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The snow across the higher terrain this week is looking less exciting. 

 

Frankly, i'm not surprised by any cutters at this point. That's the pattern for the winter. Why should it change now?

 

This winter is all about grasping at straws.

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Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

We’ve had some pretty heavy snowfall at times this morning, and apparently it’s from the lake-effect moisture making its way over here to the Greens.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: 28.4 F

Sky: Snow/Graupel

Snow at the stake: 2.0 inches

 

There was some additional accumulation after I left the house, so I’ll add that in the next report.

 

We were up to Stowe and back yesterday afternoon, so I got a general view of the snowpack east of the Greens, and didn’t notice any dramatic changes in coverage, but things are surprisingly different now west of the Greens.  Just dropping down from our area to Bolton Flats revealed a notable drop in snow depth, and from Richmond westward into the Champlain Valley the ground is essentially bare.  A quick look at the CoCoRaHS precipitation numbers suggests that it wasn’t excess rainfall, since the numbers on the west side are half what I reported from our location, so presumably it was temperatures/winds that ate up the snow.

 

After today’s lake-effect snow, the next system appears to be the clipper/redeveloper on Tuesday/Wednesday, and the BTV NWS forecast discussion is calling for totals in the 3-6” range above 1,000’:

 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME, THIS MORNING`S MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS (SREF/GEFS/EPS) REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RATHER ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS, ROBUST MILLER TYPE-B SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. INDEED, SOME OF THE THIS MORNING`S DETERMINISTIC DATA SUGGEST RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS SECOND LOW TO NEAR THE 970 MB VICINITY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA/NEW BRUNSWICK BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT AT THIS LATITUDE THE HIGHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY OCCUR OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL LOW AND LINGERING LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE ON TUE/TUE NIGHT, AND LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FORCING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MARITIME LOW TAKES OVER MAKE FOR A RATHER CHALLENGING 36-HOUR PERIOD. WITH CLIPPER-TYPE LOWS PASSING TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST, GENERAL CLIMATOLOGY AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST A DEEPENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS/SNOW SHOWERS, MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT. HOWEVER ONGOING LAKE SNOWS WILL CREATE AN ADDITIONAL LAYER OF COMPLEXITY. AT THIS POINT I USED A MULTI-MODEL QPF/SNOW- RATIO SOLN TO DERIVE THE TWO DAY TOTALS, WHICH SUGGEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND GREEN MTNS OF VERMONT ABOVE 1000 FEET.

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Wow, WCAX just reported a 106mph reading on Mt. Mansfield. 72mph in Underhill. Pleasant Valley, not Paradise Valley like I said earlier.

I wonder if that's a private WCAX station up there on their engineers building? Wouldn't surprise me if they have their own anemometer up there as they have a private web cam and other stuff.

If so, that would give credit to the MMNV1 117mph reading.

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We just have plow piles and a few patches in the shade left but otherwise bare ground is back.

I would say that we are still at 90% give or take.  Steep slopes that get a lot of sun or areas that were pounded down, like my front yard by my son's snowmobile, are back to bare ground.  My backyard is fully covered except for the snowblown paths.

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Solid cover here still... doesn't even look like much was lost.  You can walk across it without leaving a single footprint.

 

Thoroughly enjoyable gust to 42mph.  Pretty steady, too.  Ten minute average is 26 mph.

 

1.67" rain

Strange. You torched as bad as I did I think. I saw LCI had 54F.

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The BTV seasonal snowfall futility record is 25 inches I believe. I don't think that will fall this season, but we may still see a similarly awful number in the realm of 2011-2012. Of course even if January fails, there is Feb and March which can throw that complete speculation out the window. I don't know what the count is since the last warning event here, but it is closing in fast on a full 365 days I think.

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The BTV seasonal snowfall futility record is 25 inches I believe. I don't think that will fall this season, but we may still see a similarly awful number in the realm of 2011-2012. Of course even if January fails, there is Feb and March which can throw that complete speculation out the window. I don't know what the count is since the last warning event here, but it is closing in fast on a full 365 days I think.

post-363-0-33702900-1452533527_thumb.jpg

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