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klw

NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1

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43.7F  vis 1/8 light drizzle and in the clouds   11am.   Will the warm air get in here?  Been talking about it all week but only 5 hours of daylight left will be interesting to see what happens.

 

Happy Holidays everyone in C/NNE  SNE's too!    Gene

It'll "get" here after fropa. We'll mix out and jump up well into the 50s to near 60F, but it'll be short lived.

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It'll "get" here after fropa. We'll mix out and jump up well into the 50s to near 60F, but it'll be short lived.

Brian, what's your take on Sunday.  NAM says cold air gets into New England and we get some snow but GFS keeps it much warmer. I'm kind of confused.  Second question, what did they do with the GFS on the NCEP site.  Software changed.  Now the lines that mark demarcation like the 850 is not smoothed out but all over the place.  Did they increase resolution or something?

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Brian, what's your take on Sunday.  NAM says cold air gets into New England and we get some snow but GFS keeps it much warmer. I'm kind of confused.  Second question, what did they do with the GFS on the NCEP site.  Software changed.  Now the lines that mark demarcation like the 850 is not smoothed out but all over the place.  Did they increase resolution or something?

I'm not expecting much other than some showers...maybe you can end as some flakes with your elevation. Tuesday is the main show.

 

And yeah...NCEP had a resolution increase.

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1pm and still soaked in 44F with near zero vis.   I see on the Mount Washington auto road its 63F.   Wish I had a temperature sensor on the drone.  I would guess 1500 feet above me its well in the 60's.  Wonder what the top of the ceiling is?   Almost temped to fly it straight up to try to get over the overcast since its pretty bright out. Would have to totally rely on the remote and "return to home" feature since it would be flying "instrument" the whole time.  Should I or shouldn't I??? 

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1pm and still soaked in 44F with near zero vis.   I see on the Mount Washington auto road its 63F.   Wish I had a temperature sensor on the drone.  I would guess 1500 feet above me its well in the 60's.  Wonder what the top of the ceiling is?   Almost temped to fly it straight up to try to get over the overcast since its pretty bright out. Would have to totally rely on the remote and "return to home" feature since it would be flying "instrument" the whole time.  Should I or shouldn't I??? 

Newbury at 1400' is up into the 60s.

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1pm and still soaked in 44F with near zero vis. I see on the Mount Washington auto road its 63F. Wish I had a temperature sensor on the drone. I would guess 1500 feet above me its well in the 60's. Wonder what the top of the ceiling is? Almost temped to fly it straight up to try to get over the overcast since its pretty bright out. Would have to totally rely on the remote and "return to home" feature since it would be flying "instrument" the whole time. Should I or shouldn't I???

Do it, lol. Still 44f and fog.

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Happy holidays from btv?

 

NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO

WEDS...WITH OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION THREAT.

 

They are definitely on board for that one.  The really cool thing is that there are actually three potential shots of snow coming this week – the Tuesday storm is just #2.  If Taber is excited, then it’s probably OK for others to get excited as well:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS

THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS AND OUR FIRST BRIEF SHOT OF

A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM JET.

FINALLY SOME WINTER LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED...WHICH HAS ME EXCITED.

 

Event #1 Sunday evening:

 

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z

MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG LOW LEVEL

COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS FALL TO 0C BY 18Z

SUNDAY AND TO -18C BY 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THIS LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL

HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT REMAINING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW

SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING.

 

Depending on how #2 plays out, some models are showing a follow up system toward the end of the week, which would be event #3.

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Success!   I'm such a weather nerd.  So we are still socked in here.  No sun at all  today.  46F with 1/8 to 1/4 mile vis with calm conditions.  Took the drone against my better judgement and flew it straight up.  Video attached.  The clouds were thick and I lost sight of the drone quickly. Skip to about 2 minutes into the video and it breaks through the top and  comes out of the clouds.  I was at 1200 feet above my house  (2200 feet above sea level).  As I came out of the clouds it seemed harder to control the drone and didn't want to go up to my max setting of 1500 feet.  At the 3 minute mark I lost control of the drone for several seconds.  I think as soon as I got into the warm layer I was hitting high winds as you can see the drone starts to almost flip.  So I came right back down.  Airmass is very clean above, visibility looks like 100 miles looking at the cirrus to the SW.  So cool to think that while I end up with another dark foggy day in the 40's its sunny and 60F 1000 feet away from me!

 

https://youtu.be/qesFgdTq_5Y

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Is 1500ft the highest it can fly? What controls that? What prevents you from continuing to gain altitude?

nzucker.  First and most important drones are not legal to fly above 400 feet above ground level.  So what I did is a no no!  Starting this week drones have to be registered and you are suppose to carry your registration.  So I would guess a trooper could see you flying your drone higher than that and you could be in trouble.  I just live in a very rural area and use my 2 cents that not many aircraft are going to be flying 1000 feet over the ridges today in thick fog.  Saying that my drone is capable of flying to about 2200 feet above my head.  When I got the drone it was set to fly no higher than 400 feet above ground level.  However in the settings you can change that to whatever you want.  I set my limit to 1500 feet feeling that is sufficiently high.  The drone has a controller with sticks that control up and down and left to right.  Eyewall on this board is buying a DJI Phantom which can fly to 5000 feet I think.  Of course that is definitely illegal and you can loose control of a drone with winds over 15 or 20mph as the motors can't fight headwinds stronger than that. I am happy to answer any and all drone questions but now that the weather is getting active just private message me so we don't fill up the forum with drone talk!

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Up to 53F.   Okay, last drone video for the season.  Late this PM as I broke out on top of the cloud layer took the drone up one more time. Just a stunning video.  Such a great toy.  Also took this picture from my smartphone at the end of the day.  To top it off we had an amazing sunset with the cirrus a glow and the low clouds below.  Sorry for all the posts, just was such an interesting weather day!  PS  Something happens on Utube when I upload.  I loose the good contrast.  Video started okay but then you notice the change. Frustrating cause the video is much nicer on my computer.

 

post-268-0-15713600-1450994158_thumb.jpg

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Temperature going up.  55F highest so far today.   I have posted quite a few videos and pictures today.  What a dynamic day.  One more. This is a timelapse of the warm air coming in from about 3 to 445pm today.  First part I'm in the fog but watch how dynamic the atmosphere as it seems the warm air erodes the cold dense air from top down.  Waves of clouds and cold air come up from the lake and dry out as they get up to my elevation.

 

https://video.nest.com/clip/c34fbe97795243b5b9f360ef4d4a3502.mp4

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Can't believe I never hit 50F today...what a fail.

 

I really wish I was on the short term desk the last couple of nights. We were telling poor Eek a high of 62 today!

 

Actual high I'm seeing is 48.

 

It's almost like you have to treat it like forecasting out west. I'm going to forecast the inversion not to break, that way I'm only wrong once. The day it actually does break.

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Yesterday topped at 44 in the clouds, and fogged up late.  Fog layer was thin - was odd to drive thru dense fog that was brightened by moonlight.  BML isn't all that far away and reached 66.

 

BTV with a +33 daily departure yesterday, including warmest December temp ever recorded in 130 years, and broke the daily record by 16 degrees. 

 

Now that's an impressive day relative to normal.

 

The average temperature of 55F for the day (which the old record high was 51F) yesterday, is the same as a climo normal day on May 28th.

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BTV with a +33 daily departure yesterday, including warmest December temp ever recorded in 130 years, and broke the daily record by 16 degrees. 

 

Now that's an impressive day relative to normal.

 

The average temperature of 55F for the day (which the old record high was 51F) yesterday, is the same as a climo normal day on May 28th.

 

Yesterday was about the strangest weather I've experienced in BTV. It rivals the week of 80s the first week of march...though yesterday felt even stranger. 

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Some thoughts from the BTV NWS forecast discussion on these next three potential systems:

 

#1 - Sunday

 

EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA.  A PERIOD OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND SURFACE WAVE. LATEST TRENDS SHOW ENOUGH 850 TO 700MB MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN A FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS. A DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH THREE OR FOUR INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME DIFFICULT TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPS START ABOVE FREEZING...BUT QUICKLY COOL AFTER SUNSET.

 

#2 – Tuesday/Wednesday

 

LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES...STORM EVOLUTION...AND ASSOCIATED SOUTH TO NORTH QPF GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION.

 

#3 – Wednesday/Thursday

 

NEXT WARMER SYSTEM WITH NO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATE WEDS INTO THURSDAY. LATEST TRENDS SHOW A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A SNOW TO MIX TYPE EVENT...BUT OVERALL QPF LOOKS LIMITED. WILL MENTION SNOW OR RAIN FOR NOW IN THE GRIDS AND WAIT TO SEE WHAT IMPACTS THE FRESH SNOW PACK MAY HAVE ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES FOR THIS SYSTEM.

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