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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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As I mentioned this morning, snow started mixing in rather heavily at the house at around 7:30 A.M., and what had been fairly light rain at observations time had picked up to a more moderate level.  Leaving the house and heading west, snow had mixed out to just rain by the time I dropped from the pass down to Bolton Flats, and I never saw any additional snow mixing in on the trip through to Burlington.  There was some decently heavy rain at times though, and the radar shows that plenty of precipitation is still building into the area:

 

03DEC15A.gif

 

In line with what PF has shown from Stowe, the Bolton Valley Web Cam shows that the Bolton Valley Village is looking white up at 2,100:

 

03DEC15A.jpg

 

Thoughts from the BTV NWS forecast discussion:

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 500 AM EST THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BECOME ENHANCED AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE TWO TO FOUR INCHES BY THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 500 AM EST THURSDAY...MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION DROP OFF OVERNIGHT AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SHORTWAVE CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REFLECT A BIT OF INFLUENCE OF LAKE ONTARIO. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND WEATHER REMAINS DRY ON SATURDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see more than the 2-4” the BTV NWS mentions up high based on the radar and that 6z NAM precipitation map that PF posted, but we’ll see how it plays out and what sort of contribution the trough and any moisture from the lakes has with respect to Friday.

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In line with what PF has shown from Stowe, the Bolton Valley Web Cam shows that the Bolton Valley Village is looking white up at 2,100:

 

03DEC15A.jpg

 

 

I just looked at Bolton's site, and noticed it looks like they are counting their seasonal snowfall possibly back to October (as it says 8").  That's actually nice as before they used to not count until they were close to opening so their annual total would be missing early season snow.

 

I started counting with the mid-November snow, and didn't add in the 5" from October, though I see Smuggs and Sugarbush did count the October snow.  Jay Peak actually just started counting a couple days ago...giving the rest of us a little head start ;)

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The Loaf is showing snowflakes on their base cam now.

Sweet! Guessing snow levels at SR are ~1800-2000 ish from my estimate of where the end of the dusting on the trails is on the webcam.

Not expecting any substantial difference in the skiing, but would love to still have white ground on Saturday so it feels like winter.

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Sweet! Guessing snow levels at SR are ~1800-2000 ish from my estimate of where the end of the dusting on the trails is on the webcam.

Not expecting any substantial difference in the skiing, but would love to still have white ground on Saturday so it feels like winter.

 

I have about 2-4 in the grids by Friday.

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Likely a little toooooo wet, but the I'll take it for 12hr precip.  Certainly the overall flow supports this sort of gradient. If it were actually cold, this would be awesome. With the marginal snow growth temps and non-frozen ground, this feels like a 3-4" type snow today....mostly above 1500ft...which is all I care about. 

 

post-1429-0-10143400-1449161093_thumb.jp

 

 

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Seems to be clearing here, just as the snow line finally reached us. Just can't win! Maybe it will fill in a little as the low deepens?

 

 

Likely a little toooooo wet, but the I'll take it for 12hr precip.  Certainly the overall flow supports this sort of gradient. If it were actually cold, this would be awesome. With the marginal snow growth temps and non-frozen ground, this feels like a 3-4" type snow today....mostly above 1500ft...which is all I care about. 

 

attachicon.gif12.3.15 12hr precip.JPG

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