2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

[Jon]

'58 had a great pattern from Jan-Mar.  Some winter storms, but not huge snow totals like Pack shows.  

 

Best storm was 2/15/58

Asheville: 9.8

Greensboro: 6.3

Raleigh: 3.0

Charlotte: 2.2

 

 

Not a bad pattern for all snowy Strong El Ninos at RDU J-M, even with 1958 excluded (below)

 

 

The west-based -NAO seems pretty important for AN snows in the SE...in recent history all Mod-Strong Ninos with a mean Jan -AO had above average snows in RDU, adding to that all Strong-Moderate Ninos with a -AO/-NAO flip after a +AO/+NAO Dec. had above average seasonal snow totals from my data. Wall to wall -AO/-NAO such as 09-10 had multiple events but is actually on the low end of Ninos as far as snow totals go (8" at RDU).

 

A 65-66 repeat wouldn't be bad...Even though the SE heights don't look that great, it was a Strong Nino, January -AO/-NAO flip after a +AO/+NAO December. 11.8" for RDU, once again the west-based -NAO block is there. A single event made all the difference (as is the case for most strong Ninos): Jan 26th had a 7.6" event for RDU. 

 

[SN_Lover]

Yeah, everything I see so far in the not so distant future still shows the SE above normal in temps because the cold is focused out west.  The GEFS, out to the end of the run still shows that.  ENS also does below. I remain skeptical that we see any winter weather until that changes.  The blocking and nice red colors up at the pole is great to see for sure (getting us more seasonal)! But 97-98 also had a -AO and look what that got us.  Not saying that's going to happen here, just saying we need more than an -AO for winter weather in the SE. 

 

Wow, Robert has gotten worse than JB lately.  Not saying he's wrong per say.  But making that statement at this point is beyond premature IMO.

 

Robert is a sensationalist as well as JB. Both have businesses that thrive when extreme weather strikes. Models look horrible. At best we get seasonal temperatures for a few days or weeks before we warm up again. 

 

Roberts winter forecast.

[Wow]

Allan & HM like the Jan 12-14 storm as well...

 

[packbacker]

EPS burys a SW trough so cold takes a little longer to develop but man does it go a classic SE winter storm setup by day 12+...

 

Not sure why I am showing this expect as I expect more changes, with the reshuffling, STJ going nuts I think it's going to be several days, maybe a week before we really know what mid-Jan is going to look like.

 

 

[John1122]

Robert is a sensationalist as well as JB. Both have businesses that thrive when extreme weather strikes. Models look horrible. At best we get seasonal temperatures for a few days or weeks before we warm up again. 

 

Roberts winter forecast.

 

 

The above normal is going to be a brief 2-3 day shot. Read some energy company reports. People who's entire job is to forecast for the energy markets are predicting sustained cold by mid month, they even mention that the focus of the most below normal temps will be the South to the Southeast in the articles I've read just today about the price spike. These aren't people trying to sell their site for extreme weather fans. They have multi-billion dollar investors riding on them.

[packbacker]

Big changes days 12+ also with the overall NA pattern.  I think it's going to a more typical strong nino look.  If you compare day 15 from yesterday with day 14 from today (and yes changes appear earlier than day 14) you see the +PNA/-EPO getting muted a little, strong -AO and even a -NAO with a more suppressed plains to SE trough, very nice to see...

 

We will see if this is a blip or we are actually moving to a more strong nino with blocking pattern.

 

 

[Jon]

12z GEFS goes bonkers with the -NAO (west-based-ish)....wow, I keep saying this but it's been a long time since we've seen any blocking like this...super long range of course (300+ hrs), but it's the mean of all ensemble members....off the charts. Individual members should be interesting if one wants to take a look.

 

[tnweathernut]

Robert is a sensationalist as well as JB. Both have businesses that thrive when extreme weather strikes. Models look horrible. At best we get seasonal temperatures for a few days or weeks before we warm up again. 

 

Roberts winter forecast.

 

Not really sure what you are looking at, but it's sure not the Euro ensembles, the GEFS, or the GGEM ensembles.

[SN_Lover]

The above normal is going to be a brief 2-3 day shot. Read some energy company reports. People who's entire job is to forecast for the energy markets are predicting sustained cold by mid month, they even mention that the focus of the most below normal temps will be the South to the Southeast in the articles I've read just today about the price spike. These aren't people trying to sell their site for extreme weather fans. They have multi-billion dollar investors riding on them.

 

I doubt it. I'm seeing zonal flow at best. 

 

12z GEFS goes bonkers with the -NAO (west-based-ish)....wow, I keep saying this but it's been a long time since we've seen any blocking like this...super long range of course (300+ hrs), but it's the mean of all ensemble members....off the charts. Individual members should be interesting if one wants to take a look.

 

Not really sure what you are looking at, but it's sure not the Euro ensembles, the GEFS, or the GGEM ensembles.

 

 

Zonal flow

[Brick Tamland]

More from Allan:

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx  8h8 hours ago

I think there is a storm threat, Jan 8th-9th, but lean more towards Ohio Valley/Northeast threat.

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx  8h8 hours ago

Think threat of bigger, more widespread event around Jan 12th-14th for southern/eastern US.

[packbacker]

This is the kind of temp anomalies for blocking/strong nino's...warm NW with heart of cold plains to southeast...

 

Still day 12+ before any meaningful changes so I would expect this to change...I wonder if we truly get a super warm NW and a warm northern US with heart of cold from Dallas/ATL/Richmond south...

 

Day 14 top versus yesterdays day 15

 

 

[packbacker]

12z GEFS goes bonkers with the -NAO (west-based-ish)....wow, I keep saying this but it's been a long time since we've seen any blocking like this...super long range of course (300+ hrs), but it's the mean of all ensemble members....off the charts. Individual members should be interesting if one wants to take a look.

 

 

 

Agree, the blocking over Greenland has gotten stronger in the extended on both GEFS/EPS.  

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx  8h8 hours ago

Allan Huffman Retweeted Michael Ventrice

Stormy look for SE/East.

 

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice  11h

11 hours ago

This is what us Winter Weather lovers have been waiting for! BIG pattern change coming for the U.S. mid-January

[Wow]

12z GEFS goes bonkers with the -NAO (west-based-ish)....wow, I keep saying this but it's been a long time since we've seen any blocking like this...super long range of course (300+ hrs), but it's the mean of all ensemble members....off the charts. Individual members should be interesting if one wants to take a look.

 

 

 

Sure, here's one.

 

[CaryWx]

I doubt it. I'm seeing zonal flow at best. 

 

 

 

 

Zonal flow

 

I like to believe all prognosticators have some semblance of value data points behind their opinions here.  Hard to tell if you are serious or just trolling.  Very Widre like.

[CaryWx]

Thanks for the '58 snow data Pack!

[franklin NCwx]

When was the last time we had this strong of a blocking signal show up on all 3 globals 2010?

[Jon]

I doubt it. I'm seeing zonal flow at best. 

 

 

 

 

Zonal flow

None of these charts should be taken verbatim, just saying it's hard to deny the blocking showing up in the LR and it's fun to show cool blocking runs (see tnweathernut's avatar). However, the pattern will be blocky, which will likely not generate zonal flow. Not sure where you get that idea for the forthcoming pattern, but it isn't zonal. Any respected met calling for sustained zonal flow for Jan or something? The +PNA and block will deny that. 

[snowlover91]

None of these charts should be taken verbatim, just saying it's hard to deny the blocking showing up in the LR and it's fun to show cool blocking runs (see tnweathernut's avatar). However, the pattern will be blocky, which will likely not generate zonal flow. Not sure where you get that idea for the forthcoming pattern, but it isn't zonal. Any respected met calling for sustained zonal flow for Jan or something? The +PNA and block will deny that.

I think he/she may be looking at the short term, inside 200 hours, which is more of a seasonal pattern with temps slightly below or slightly above normal. Long term though after January 8th it certainly looks much colder with better blocking.

[Bevo]

The above normal is going to be a brief 2-3 day shot. Read some energy company reports. People who's entire job is to forecast for the energy markets are predicting sustained cold by mid month, they even mention that the focus of the most below normal temps will be the South to the Southeast in the articles I've read just today about the price spike. These aren't people trying to sell their site for extreme weather fans. They have multi-billion dollar investors riding on them.

 

Can confirm. I work in power generation. We already have orders for "potential unplanned outages and over-use". Although we usually get these orders, it's not typically as early or as much.

 

FWIW

[FranknRaleigh]

The above normal is going to be a brief 2-3 day shot. Read some energy company reports. People who's entire job is to forecast for the energy markets are predicting sustained cold by mid month, they even mention that the focus of the most below normal temps will be the South to the Southeast in the articles I've read just today about the price spike. These aren't people trying to sell their site for extreme weather fans. They have multi-billion dollar investors riding on them.

Exactly.  I invested in natural gas this morning.  The east coast medium term forecast is already altering energy company strategies for the next 15 to 60 days forward.  And it is guys like JB, Allan, and Robert we are listening to.

[No snow for you]

Can confirm. I work in power generation. We already have orders for "potential unplanned outages and over-use". Although we usually get these orders, it's not typically as early or as much.

 

FWIW

Yep. Nat Gas for February delivery is up 37% in 8 days in heavy trading in a time of year we don't normally see heavy trading. 

[tnweathernut]

I think he/she may be looking at the short term, inside 200 hours, which is more of a seasonal pattern with temps slightly below or slightly above normal. Long term though after January 8th it certainly looks much colder with better blocking.

I would agree, but there really aren't any panels I see (even from the GFS) that show a zonal flow.  We currently have a + PNA (+1.3ish) and that look continues to build at times throughout the 12z run of the operational.  

 

Seasonal temperatures, yes.  Zonal flow, not so much.

[snowlover91]

I agree with you in timing of SSWE more or less, but I still don't think the PV strength can be analyzed or even guessed correctly just from a composite mean map...correct me if I'm wrong.

 

Since the data is lacking for 57-58, there's no way that I know of to analyze the strength of the PV, you can only compare placement and to me, the low heights simply just confirm it's a PV. I think all PV's during winter should be similar to the mean map you provided (again correct me if I'm wrong, I'm new to PV analysis and griteater helped me out last time I posted on this)

 

Here's the mean composite for all Strong El Ninos during Jan

 

Here's the mean composite for all El Ninos

 

As you can see the images are virtually identical.

You are correct in using the mean composites for placement of the PV, two of the images I posted from 57-58 were illustrating the placement and areas of warming. However when getting the PV maps you can change it from a "composite" to an "anomaly" map for the 10mb level. A strong PV will have cold anomalies centered over the pole with little to no warming. A weak one will either feature abundant warming and/or a displaced area of cold 10mb anomalies. Here are a few examples below.

According to this article here January through February 2010 featured a weak PV. Here are the corresponding anomaly maps below. Notice January has the anomalies misplaced with a large amount of warming indicating a weak and disturbed PV.

Now notice by February the PV is extremely weak with warm anomalies over the pole. There was also an SSW in February of that year according to this link here. http://gacc.nifc.gov/sacc/predictive/SOLAR_WEATHER-CLIMATE_STUDIES/ENSO%20and%20Stratospheric%20Warmings%20Butler%202011May.pdf

Lastly notice this last image of December 1988. The PV in December of 88 and January of 89 was quite strong with little warming until late January. An SSW didn't occur until late February due to the strong PV and late warming. Also you can see in the anomaly chart below the 10mb anomalies centered over the pole with little to no warming. My conclusion is for years like 1957-58 where we can't find any specific data that the 10mb composite maps are useful for overall placement and warming features while the 10mb anomaly maps are helpful for determining strength.

[snowlover91]

I would agree, but there really aren't any panels I see (even from the GFS) that show a zonal flow. We currently have a + PNA (+1.3ish) and that look continues to build at times throughout the 12z run of the operational.

Seasonal temperatures, yes. Zonal flow, not so much.

I agree it's definitely seasonal temps and no signs of zonal flow. However I have seen some incorrectly equate seasonal temperatures with zonal flow, perhaps that's what the op meant, I'm not sure. Either way the optimism is great to see today, you know it's getting good when the board crashes lol.

[snowlover91]

Robert is a sensationalist as well as JB. Both have businesses that thrive when extreme weather strikes. Models look horrible. At best we get seasonal temperatures for a few days or weeks before we warm up again.

Which models look horrible and what time range are you referring to? It surely can't be the long range because past January 8th all models I've looked at are cold with nice blocking. I wouldn't call the short to medium term horrible either. Sure it's nothing super cold just average to slightly BN/AN but it's a big change from 70s for highs. I would say "horrible" would be if the models showed the December torch continuing through January. I see none which indicate this happening. Perhaps a further explanation and/or posting some images of what you see and why it's bad would be helpful.

[jburns]

Exactly.  I invested in natural gas this morning.  The east coast medium term forecast is already altering energy company strategies for the next 15 to 60 days forward.  And it is guys like JB, Allan, and Robert we are listening to.

 

Nothing strange about this.  It is forecasters forecasting for the $$$$ and energy companies reacting to it for the $$$$$.  A win, win from both of their perspectives.

[Batman]

As the evidence builds for a pretty fast and complete turn around in our weather pattern beginning in a few days and intensifying as we get into January, the only thing I can see in the post from the SNlover is one of two things.

 

1.) a troll looking to stir the pot

2.) He/she sees the strong STJ cruising the southern US and things that means Zonal and mild.

 

A strong STJ with a ridge in W Canada and Blocking from the N Atlantic is the pattern we dream for if we want winter storms. It is a much better snow pattern for us than a roller coaster looking US with west way up (ridge) and the east way down (trough) and  no ST flow. A pattern like that may deliver cold to us, but I have spent 24 years in Georgia watching the cold trough in the east come in, but have little blocking to slow the flow and no STJ to supply moisture. It may look good on a map, but does not often produce for us in the south. I will take what I am seeing and the evidence that is growing each day. Not ready to push all my chips to the center of the table yet, but my confidence and excitement is certainly on the rise!

[SnowNiner]

Big changes days 12+ also with the overall NA pattern.  I think it's going to a more typical strong nino look.  If you compare day 15 from yesterday with day 14 from today (and yes changes appear earlier than day 14) you see the +PNA/-EPO getting muted a little, strong -AO and even a -NAO with a more suppressed plains to SE trough, very nice to see...

 

We will see if this is a blip or we are actually moving to a more strong nino with blocking pattern.

 

 

We get that look within 240 and I'll be on board the train.  The free maps I see (GEFS and EPS) just do not have a great pattern yet, just better.  Much better even but still AN.  The great 500 maps shown are so far in the future it's hard to take them seriously.  Honestly though they are nice to look at!

[packbacker]

We get that look within 240 and I'll be on board the train.  The free maps I see (GEFS and EPS) just do not have a great pattern yet, just better.  Much better even but still AN.  The great 500 maps shown are so far in the future it's hard to take them seriously.  Honestly though they are nice to look at!

 

Agreed, it can be easy to take day 13+ ensemble runs as gospel and the high stepping into the endzone starts way to early, just ask Leon Lett :-)

 

But, let's see how the GEFS has done.  Around xmas eve is when it started showing days 11-15 below normal the first week of January and now we are in the days 6-10 range.  Not to bad...

 

Probably should have showed 5h anomalies, but those verified well too, just days 6-10 shows higher heights in the east contributing to not as cold.