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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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No snow in sight! I'm really thinking the models start flipping to a colder solution come December 1st...(wish casting)

I would be happy with one 36 hour blizzard of 2 feet or more, two 12 inch snow events and four 6 inch or less events.

Please God do it for us weenies!

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Is there even a nor'easter or something showing up on the models a big storm even if rain would be nice about now. So boring it almost feels like living in Arizona where it's the same weather almost every day!!!!

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0z GFS brings in the cold around Dec 12 . This would be what JB and other mets are predicting about a change by mid month. Lets see if it holds.

When did JB make that prediction?    Ensembles show nothing but above normal temps. at that time.

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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_f336_usbg.gif

 

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z500anom_f288_usbg.gif

 

JB's former employer is predicting just 4 days in the whole month of Dec. will have below normal highs and that just 6 days will have below normal lows here in NYC.   Seems like par for a strong El Nino December.

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I have a feeling you're going to be awfully disappointed this year.

I think people are rushing the pattern change. Although the EPO may neutralize, I'm still expecting the mean trough in the west for December.

I wouldn't start looking for any sustained snow and cold until mid to late January. I expect NYC will get most of my expected 15-20" in that period, mostly February.

Also, folks are bound to be disappointed given recent historic and above climo winters. I had 56" in 14-15, 74" in 13-14, and 52" in 12-13 against an average annual snowfall of 36". Last February was the 3rd coldest on record with a mean departure of -11.4F, and the past two winters have both seen January, February, and March average well below normal temperatures. How likely is that to happen again?

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I think people are rushing the pattern change. Although the EPO may neutralize, I'm still expecting the mean trough in the west for December.

I wouldn't start looking for any sustained snow and cold until mid to late January. I expect NYC will get most of my expected 15-20" in that period, mostly February.

Also, folks are bound to be disappointed given recent historic and above climo winters. I had 56" in 14-15, 74" in 13-14, and 52" in 12-13 against an average annual snowfall of 36". Last February was the 3rd coldest on record with a mean departure of -11.4F, and the past two winters have both seen January, February, and March average well below normal temperatures. How likely is that to happen again?

I think the day 10 system on the GFS is a good example of what we can expect for most of the Winter, at least through the end of December. A large bowling ball system with no cold air to speak of. Verbatim it's 50's and moderate rain all the way to the Poconos and you would need to travel almost to Detroit before you found temps near freezing.

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What gives you any indication that it's going to be a great winter? Especially for the immediate coast.

Second half of el ninos are usually snowy a long with a tanking soi and weakening el nino. So you dont think that the coast has a chance? I guess most of the mets who predicted a snowy second half will be wrong? So far every winter outlook that i seen had a mild december with a change in January. I will continue to be optimistic.

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Winter is almost done after December.

5 weeks in December

4 weeks in Janaury

4 weeks in February

5 Weeks in March -

I remain optimistic that December will produce snow.

For you? Sure. I have been hyping areas above 1500'. Sooner or later we are going to see a big juicy miller A come up the coast in to a marginal airmass. Your going to need to be up high to have a chance of getting temps to cool enough for snow. Almost like a late or early season storm just in actual winter.

Moral, I think you score we cry at least once before any hope comes for the coastal plain via a full scale pattern change

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Second half of el ninos are usually snowy a long with a tanking soi and weakening el nino. So you dont think that the coast has a chance? I guess most of the mets who predicted a snowy second half will be wrong? So far every winter outlook that i seen had a mild december with a change in January. I will continue to be optimistic.

I think you see some significant snow in the second half of Winter, but far from great. I think you will be lucky to approach average. 

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I think the day 10 system on the GFS is a good example of what we can expect for most of the Winter, at least through the end of December. A large bowling ball system with no cold air to speak of. Verbatim it's 50's and moderate rain all the way to the Poconos and you would need to travel almost to Detroit before you found temps near freezing.

That low cuts way west, though, and there's a major system behind it spreading snow across UT, NV, CO, etc which places us in a warm sector. So a lot of things going against that.

97-98 had a lot of warm bowling balls that gave snow to interior New England and the Apps. Parts of VA/WV did well that year, as well as Vermont. Was really tough on the coast.

I expect sort of a blend between 97-98, 06-07, 57-58, and 72-73. Major western trough early like Dec 72, a warm Dec here and in the Plains like 57, some mild southern stream bowling balls like 97-98, and a colder Feb like 07.

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