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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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Now, don't get too invested. We need consistency. 

 

This could all go up in smoke tomorrow. Keep a cool head and look at the general trends and you may escape with some sanity left. 

100% agree. With such a progressive Pacific, this potential threat is literally walking on thin ice. Can this extreme run of the Euro happen? Of course. I will temper any excitement till Monday.

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100% agree. With such a progressive Pacific, this potential threat is literally walking on thin ice. Can this extreme run of the Euro happen? Of course. I will temper any excitement till Monday.

The storm gets captured and literally crawls east (at 192 it's still not past Maine's longitude), it would be awesomely ironic if this happens given the general flow this winter, but it'll be worth it just to see the tearful makeup make out session between some posters.
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My county in SEPA is literally smack dab in the bullseye on the Euro clown map. 24+" at day 6....yeah, umm, we all know how that usually works out.

This is a different case because Atlantic blocking with an established 50/50 seem high likely to be in place in just a couple of days AND the PAC vort responsible for the downstream storm is on shore Tuesday, with little else to sample and figure out. There are also multiple ways this works out, as we saw from last night's GFS. This is why all the models are on it and the ones which aren't are showing their usual progressive biases. Likelihood of this event is higher than any other day 6 threat IMO.

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This is a different case because Atlantic blocking with an established 50/50 seem high likely to be in place in just a couple of days AND the PAC vort responsible for the downstream storm is on shore Tuesday, with little else to sample and figure out. There are also multiple ways this works out, as we saw from last night's GFS. This is why all the models are on it and the ones which aren't are showing their usual progressive biases. Likelihood of this event is higher than any other day 6 threat IMO.

I agree with you as I have been on the neg nao flip train yielding an Archambeault event like this for several days now. However, I would be much more comfortable being in NYC right now believe it or not. That euro clown map is eerily similar to how Jan 96 looked just days prior ( but thru the MA with irt that storm), then shifted North last 24 hours. Could go either way....i just remember that storm, the heavy snow swath prog, and the subsequent shift north. I am cautiously optimistic but prepared for heartbreak here. Good luck with this one to all on this board!
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I agree with you as I have been on the neg nao flip train yielding an Archambeault event like this for several days now. However, I would be much more comfortable being in NYC right now believe it or not. That euro clown map is eerily similar to how Jan 96 looked just days prior, then shifted North last 24 hours. Could go either way....i just remember that storm, the heavy snow swatch prog, and the subsequent shift north. I am cautiously optimistic but prepared for heartbreak nere. Good luck with this one to all on this board!

I think you just need to root for an early transfer and not what the 0z GGEM showed. Philly/SNJ should do fine here, as should DC. This is about as classic a KU look as you can get, ya know? I'd choo-choo-choose this look any day of the week. 

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I think you just need to root for an early transfer and not what the 0z GGEM showed. Philly/SNJ should do fine here, as should DC. This is about as classic a KU look as you can get, ya know? I'd choo-choo-choose this look any day of the week.

Lol! Yep, I shouldnt complain....savor being in a good spot for now I guess. Just being VERY cautious and trying not to get excited until we are within 48 hrs or less. LONG way to go, long week ahead.
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Cautiously optimistic on this storm threat, the way this winter has gone im just waiting for the storm to start trending ots

I fully expect a few runs to show either OTS. .or such sharp cutoffs ..etc ..but still my gut says by Wed 12Z suite

.nyc may have a nice 4-8 inch snow fall on tap ..I just rather keep expectations low ..

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I fully expect a few runs to show either OTS. .or such sharp cutoffs ..etc ..but still my gut says by Wed 12Z suite

.nyc may have a nice 4-8 inch snow fall on tap ..I just rather keep expectations low ..

Agree. Just hope for the best. The fast pac flow makes me very very weary of a huge storm

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