Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

Recommended Posts

It might not rain, but the snow won't accumulate at those temperatures.

this.

Still getting a nice dusting which will stick till at least the afternoon when the strongest part of the day melts it. I have a feeling that the models start turning around tonight for a bit more consensus. My guess is they'll turn more snowy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 6.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

9mhwbg_conus.gif

Watch how close the 0Z GFS prog relates to this WPC cast

:ph34r:just a wild guess lol

It was a pretty wild guess, it cuts well west of us (I guess it may have been a miniscule improvement over the 18Z aloft, but it's like 2 midgets arguing over who's taller)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was a pretty wild guess, it cuts well west of us (I guess it may have been a miniscule improvement over the 18Z aloft, but it's like 2 midgets arguing over who's taller)

yup...and the secondary winds upgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.pngoff the coast of MA

 

9nhwbg_conus.gif

 

bundle up with your umbrellas handy     :whistle:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yup...and the secondary winds upgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.pngoff the coast of MA

True, but as a pretty potent storm. If the blockign that's in place forces the redevelopment a little earlier we'll have a different outcome, although the lead wave being that far NW is never a good thing, even of the coastal really goes to town the lead wave already cut us off from the best cold air source
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The trends recently havent been good at all for next weekends storm. GFS and GGEM show a lakes cutter due to the fact that the PV is in the wrong storm and its weak. Now If the Euro shows the same thing, it will be really worrisome. I say lets see what happens after the clipper. It might change but right now, it's worrisome. Am I throwing in the towel for the winter? No but I dont like what I am seeing for next weekend as I look more in depth in regards to the models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JC...my point is not just the individual members inside one ENS (GEFS) for example

I posted the 500mb  charts from all three big guns

 

 to me the projected 500mb  pattern from the ENS --- ATM

says OTS for the 17 -18th threat is a very valid option

?

Which is it ?

Wide right ?

Wide left ?

Or does that not matter. ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The trends recently havent been good at all for next weekends storm. GFS and GGEM show a lakes cutter due to the fact that the PV is in the wrong storm and its weak. Now If the Euro shows the same thing, it will be really worrisome. I say lets see what happens after the clipper. It might change but right now, it's worrisome. Am I throwing in the towel for the winter? No but I dont like what I am seeing for next weekend as I look more in depth in regards to the models.

Look at the bright side, the GFS is markedly approved overall. Forget about this strom, look at the LR, sure it changes every run but if we lose our only positive poster... :(
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So it's not wide right ? It's a cutter correct ?

Wana make sure we got your forecast down.

IT GON RAIN  IN JERSEY NEXT SUNDAY --Paulie   :raining:

 

secondary is right and north of us  on that GFS prog

 

OTS for the southern shortwave

 

you see that???

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IT GON RAIN  IN JERSEY NEXT SUNDAY --Paulie   :raining:

Well then that's a bad forecast by you . You've been shouting OTS.

Your mess not mine Tom. I never touched this one

Even when perma pressed.

BN 11 thru the 25 th

It can rain in cold patterns. Just unlucky ones. But this is not OTS

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well then that's a bad forecast by you . You've been shouting OTS.

Your mess not mine Tom. I never touched this one

Even when perma pressed.

BN 11 thru the 25 th

It can rain in cold patterns. Just unlucky ones. But this is not OTS

psst look above my friend ^^^^

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

psst look above my friend ^^^^

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

Lol. The primary goes to the lakes now.

Pls stop putting a band aide on a shotgun wound.

There was never a center to Detroit , the models are now turning the SW neg in the panhandle and ejecting LP to the lakes.

That's new to today's guidance. The fact that some surface feature escapes was not the forecast , you were touring the main SW was going OTS.

I'm not one of these kids. Don't repair bullet holes w duct tape here bro .

You said OTS, not a cutter w the primary.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol. The primary goes to the lakes now.

Pls stop putting a band aide on a shotgun wound.

There was never a center to Detroit , the models are now turning the SW neg in the panhandle and ejecting LP to the lakes.

That's new to today's guidance. The fact that some surface feature escapes was not the forecast , you were touring the main SW was going OTS.

I'm not one of these kids. Don't repair bullet holes w duct tape here bro .

You said OTS, not a cutter w the primary.

Please don't muddy the waters 

 

Cutter west and north from the 12z progs

that coastal hugger is the one thats  OTS

 

we done

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  

Well the euro ens makes me look like a fool   :axe:

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png

  

24hr GFS comp at 250mb  for the 18th   (chaotic changes)  :ph34r:

 

not good.....

 

 

YESTERDAY

 

gfs_uv250_us_40.png

TODAY

 

gfs_uv250_us_36.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

    

 

Right ...that surface low on the water (off the coast) was the focus of those disco's

that energy is out to sea on the 0z GFS progs

 

never a cutter to be found there

that is the new storm ATM  from today"s progs

 

my focus and forecast are sound

then and now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Right ...that surface low on the water (off the coast) was the focus of those disco's

that energy is out to sea on the 0z GFS progs

 

never a cutter to be found there

that is the new storm ATM  from today"s progs

 

my focus and forecast are sound

Well we agree , this is new so it makes your original forecast wrong

Tom 25 and P cloudy is different than the 50 and the rain the GFS has .

That's the difference between a shunt and a cutter. Not saying it wasn't sound , but we bust when the guidance changes and right now the guidance is flipping.

The day the GFS at 18z showed 2 ft of snow I posted great patten but caution don't bite outside 5 days.

I stuck to it.

That's all

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fellas it's still 6 days away. So much could change its not even funny! Enjoy the one incher Tuesday night and look forward to the tracking this week. I'm for sure waiting for the euro tonight cause I'm a fiend!

By this point last week, today's threat was pretty much done for -- as snow, that is. I know the scenarios are different, but unless the GFS and CMC have gone completely bonkers, I think this next storm chance is a rainmaker.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...