Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 This appears to be a mega West based -NAO as per the 18z GFS <5 days out We didn't see this in a long time. I forgot how it looks on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Which teleconnection is most important in terms of East Coast Winter Storms? EPO, AO, NAO, PNA, other? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Which teleconnection is most important in terms of East Coast Winter Storms? EPO, AO, NAO, PNA, other? Thanks. Probably PNA followed by AO. It's pretty hard to get a monster storm without the ridge in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Which teleconnection is most important in terms of East Coast Winter Storms? EPO, AO, NAO, PNA, other? Thanks. For consistent cold and storminess, I'd say the EPO/AO. For blockbuster storms, I'd say PNA/NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I was posting just yesterday in the MA thread that probably 98% of snow events there have a ridge in the west. In NYC it's probably 75/80 and Boston 65-70. The southwest flow events become much more manageable as you go north, in DC virtually no SWFEs produce snow. Even more odd, our best SWFEs tend to be with a trof in the west and not a ridge. My guess as to why this is the case is that the shortwave dampens as it comes east and tracks over or to our south vs it amplifying and going north with a ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We didn't see this in a long time. I forgot how it looks on a map.2009-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 2009-2010 Yup. Central NJ. Too far north for the MA storms, too far south for the 2/26 event. All produced some snow here, but nothing huge. Dec was around 10, 2/6 around 3, 2/11 produced around 10, and 2/26 produced 8....in any other winter that would have been a good run of storms, but after watching the Balt-Dc-Phillly stuff and the northern areas get pummeled 2/26, it was disappointing....but we got ours on Boxing Day the next winter....and another 19 inches a month later. And that was in a La Nina in 10-11, but a lot of blocking IIRC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yup. Central NJ. Too far north for the MA storms, too far south for the 2/26 event. All produced some snow here, but nothing huge. Dec was around 10, 2/6 around 3, 2/11 produced around 10, and 2/26 produced 8....in any other winter that would have been a good run of storms, but after watching the Balt-Dc-Phillly stuff and the northern areas get pummeled 2/26, it was disappointing....but we got ours on Boxing Day the next winter....and another 19 inches a month later. And that was in a La Nina in 10-11, but a lot of blocking IIRC.... Hopefully next winter doesn't go full blown strong La Niña because chances are we won't get so lucky next time. La Niñas with blocking like 08-09 and 10-11 can be pretty good. No blocking though and they are fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It's going to be a constant battle due to the strong pacific flow from a super Nino but the signals for potential are there. If this was a 09/10 strength Nino then this upcoming pattern would produce blockbusters but will the Nino influence be too powerful to overcome. 98 saw the AO tank too but it didn't matter. Does anyone know the state of the NAO and PNA when the AO dropped below -4 in 1998 compared to now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The flow is not off the PAC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It's going to be a constant battle due to the strong pacific flow from a super Nino but the signals for potential are there. If this was a 09/10 strength Nino then this upcoming pattern would produce blockbusters but will the Nino influence be too powerful to overcome. 98 saw the AO tank too but it didn't matter. Does anyone know the state of the NAO and PNA when the AO dropped below -4 in 1998 compared to now? This Nino is declining fairly rapidly, so we might be in luck in that dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm excited about the upcoming pattern. My dad is also hyped he said we could get a huge snow event within a week or two that could stay at least 7 weeks. Enjoy weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yup. Central NJ. Too far north for the MA storms, too far south for the 2/26 event. All produced some snow here, but nothing huge. Dec was around 10, 2/6 around 3, 2/11 produced around 10, and 2/26 produced 8....in any other winter that would have been a good run of storms, but after watching the Balt-Dc-Phillly stuff and the northern areas get pummeled 2/26, it was disappointing....but we got ours on Boxing Day the next winter....and another 19 inches a month later. And that was in a La Nina in 10-11, but a lot of blocking IIRC.... 2/11/10 had 11 in Woodbridge and 2/26 had 13 according to nws Obviously the year after was better but up until 09-10 our best winter before that was 05-06 in central nj and that was mostly from one storm. The snowpack was pretty solid for feb 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 2/11/10 had 11 in Woodbridge and 2/26 had 13 according to nws Obviously the year after was better but up until 09-10 our best winter before that was 05-06 in central nj and that was mostly from one storm. The snowpack was pretty solid for feb 10 It was reported locally as 8, but it did look like more than that. I didn't measure as I had snow to clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm excited about the coming pattern. My dad is also hyped he said we could get a huge snow event within a week or two that could stay at least 7 weeks. Enjoy weenies Your making me worried that I should make sure the snowblowers are working. Was hoping the electric Toro would be enough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 2/11/10 had 11 in Woodbridge and 2/26 had 13 according to nws Obviously the year after was better but up until 09-10 our best winter before that was 05-06 in central nj and that was mostly from one storm. The snowpack was pretty solid for feb 10 Though we averaged more total snow over a decade, don't think we'll ever beat the winter totals of Balt/DC and Philly 09-10, which I think were in the 80's.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It was reported locally as 8, but it did look like more than that. I didn't measure as I had snow to clean. I had around 17" on the 10th and a foot on the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Though we averaged more total snow over a decade, don't think we'll ever beat the winter totals of Balt/DC and Philly 09-10, which I think were in the 80's....09-10Bwi 77 DCA 56 Phl 78 NYC 51 New Brunswick nj 51.4 I believe outside areas in Phl and DCA they had close to 100. I think with a little less blocking we can pull that off...obviously that was historic down there but I rather take what we had the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Interesting,now that things are looking cold and possibly white, some have grown quiet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I don't really know but should the GEPS be trusted. I mean it looks good for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Thought I post also the GEM. Shows the same general idea of a West based Negative NAO forming. Now the question remains, will we see snow with all the teles lining up(-AO, -NAO, +PNA, MJO Phase 7-8). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Dates that pop up on various models. 13-14 17-20 Those 2 stuck out the most at moment.let's cross our fingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Can the dewpoint stop being in the single digits? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Though we averaged more total snow over a decade, don't think we'll ever beat the winter totals of Balt/DC and Philly 09-10, which I think were in the 80's.... I wonder how much snow we received during the 95-96 winter. NYC recorded about 75 inches, we had to of been around that (maybe more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We have a week to work with this 500mb setup. 00z GFS is rather close to a storm. There have been some impressive medium range changes upstream, so I wouldn't count anything off at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 1995-96 could have been 100" if all the storms stayed all snow... 12/09/95...2" lost...changed to rain... 12/14/95...2" lost...changed to rain... 12/19/95...2" lost...changed to sleet and freezing rain... 01/02/96...7" lost...changed to sleet freezing rain and rain... 01/12/96...2" lost...changed to rain... 03/08/96...5" lost...started as sleet and freezing rain... 03/29/96...5" lost...changed to rain and sleet before changing back to snow... 04/10/96...5" lost...wet snow did not stick... that's about 25-30" lost to mixing... 1993-94 could have gone over 100" if all the frozen events were all snow too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We have a week to work with this 500mb setup. 00z GFS is rather close to a storm. There have been some impressive medium range changes upstream, so I wouldn't count anything off at this point. Yeah, verbatim it looks nice for parts of New England. BTW; excellent and extremely informative writeup in the other thread, I really enjoyed reading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Its really interesting how sometimes the Bering Sea Rule shows up from time to time on the models. I saw some mention of a low retrograding along the eastern seaboard due to the Japanese coastal storm that took place, and now the GFS shows the clipper bombing and retrograding into Canada. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yeah, verbatim it looks nice for parts of New England. BTW; excellent and extremely informative writeup in the other thread, I really enjoyed reading it. I'm not too concerned about the 13th since the signal for the 17th looks very, very nice. 558 dm ridge over Greenland and another impressive northern stream system coming down the pike And thank you very much! I appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 1060 high into greenland on the GFS. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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