MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Then a 960's bomb on the following Monday, but the coast is too warm. Weenie suicide alert if this somehow verifies. Ensembles keep showing a coastal during that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 A few massive arctic outbreaks follow on the GFS. Deep south frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Ensembles keep showing a coastal during that timeframe Still did on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 0z CMC ensembles also show a coastal while the op run doesn't even show anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Land and sea temperatures will change after this cold shot and that will definitely affect the models in the coming days. That snowstorm is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 0z CMC ensembles also show a coastal while the op run doesn't even show anything.hopefully at some point op models catch up with. Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 0z GFS looks quite snowy for the interior... Back to back events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Weak cutter on the Euro for storm 1. Ugly for everyone except for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 0z Euro has a coastal for Jan 11-12. Now the GFS and Euro has a coastal during that timeframe along with the GGEM ensembles, GEFS and EPS. Don't worry about temps this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 0z Euro has a coastal for Jan 11-12. Now the GFS and Euro has a coastal during that timeframe along with the GGEM ensembles, GEFS and EPS. Don't worry about temps this far out. System two very warm on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Please let us know if the 0z EPS run regresses the cold pattern at the end of the run when it comes out. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Euro tries to develop a miller b at 234. A lot of potential on this run. System two very warm on the Euro. It's a million hours out. No need to stress about the temps. Just look for the signal. Please let us know if the 0z EPS run regresses the cold pattern at the end of the run when it comes out. Thanks. I will be sleeping. Hopefully someone posts it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 System two very warm on the Euro. Very warm ? Because an OP run 9 days out has the B/L @ 38 . A few points here , system 2 deepens 13 mb in 12 hours runs to the BM and it`s 850 as are already marginal . So If I am just away from the coast , that run looks ok to me . Wait until you are inside 4 days before you even look at types ETC . in our OLD pattern , this would not even show up . This is a NEW regime .-EPO+PNA regime systems like to get cooler as you get closer . The key is to get closer , then worry . The models say its 9 days away , so at this point it is just nice to see something . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Still there on the ensembles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Explain exactly what this 5 day mean is saying When you are done lets see if that`s a hammer . You see what it is showing at 240 in the M/W that will get parked over you as we get closer . Still not cold enough . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Still not cold enough . It's a darn cold pattern Paul. The AO takes a nosedive and we pay for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 It's a darn cold pattern Paul. The AO takes a nosedive and we pay for it. We will be COLD Jan 10 -20 . Wonder what the GFSXYZ has for that period . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Looks very stormy prior to the cold snap in mid January. I see the interior and higher elevations doing very well if everything plays out accordingly for storm #2 and maybe even 1. Mixed signal for the coastal plain until we get closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Nice CFS graphics here http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showmastercfs.php CFS mean anomalies point and click http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showcfs2mplots.php?lat=40.78470081841747&lon=-73.96820068359375&z=8 CFS mean for Westwood NJ after the 19th of Jan shows no below normal anomalies in Jersey till about Feb 10th my take is normal temps will be the rule not the exception round here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Lol @ the 06z GFS.....god do I hate off hour model runs, night and day from 00z, storm 1 is a rain event all the way to Albany, what a joke... PB is correct, it's going to be frigid this time frame, and models aren't picking up and correlating it properly to these storms. I'd bet snow before rain on both these events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Why is the CFS so bad ? It`s Jan forecast in only 9 days shaved 3C off for the actual month it was forecasting in . Anyone looking at it`s Feb 2M should be careful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Again any cold shots are transient. No -NAO no sustained cold or snow chances in the coastal plain. First chance for snow in NYC not until after the 20th. This pattern looks very good for snow for Chicago though, lack of -NAO pulls that's trough west and delivers the goods big time there over the next two weeks. Zonal pattern to return to US after week two with major mild up in the east as the trough breaks through in west and we get a muted December pattern. January AOAN for Jan temps in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Again any cold shots are transient. No -NAO no sustained cold or snow chances in the coastal plain. First chance for snow in NYC not until after the 20th. This pattern looks very good for snow for Chicago though, lack of -NAO pulls that's trough west and delivers the goods big time there over the next two weeks. Zonal pattern to return to US after week two with major mild up in the east as the trough breaks through in west and we get a muted December pattern. January AOAN for Jan temps in NYC. Forget snow for a second , this the warmer CFS . IT SAYS NO TO ZONAL FLOW . I will not even bother to pull up the EURO which is even colder than this . So I ask you , which guidance is showing you zonal flow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Again any cold shots are transient. No -NAO no sustained cold or snow chances in the coastal plain. First chance for snow in NYC not until after the 20th. This pattern looks very good for snow for Chicago though, lack of -NAO pulls that's trough west and delivers the goods big time there over the next two weeks. Zonal pattern to return to US after week two with major mild up in the east as the trough breaks through in west and we get a muted December pattern. January AOAN for Jan temps in NYC. You are not going to see a zonal flow with the PNA raging. Also, you don't need a -NAO for sustained cold and snow chances. +PNA and -EPO will do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Flurries I had flurries January 1st as well in Garwood NJ (Union County). I'm surprised at not seeing other reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 You are not going to see a zonal flow with the PNA raging. Also, you don't need a -NAO for sustained cold and snow chances. +PNA and -EPO will do the trick. Definite trolling at this point. It's always the same kind of post and explanations won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Definite trolling at this point. It's always the same kind of post and explanations won't matter. We haven't had a -nao in a long time but we have done quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 I had flurries January 1st as well in Garwood NJ (Union County). I'm surprised at not seeing other reports.I had flurries on and off on New Years Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Pv has split according to DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Close to 5.00 inches in New Brunswick last month....did you happen to go outside? I walked outside every day at lunch....I remember drizzle Been preoccupied with things I guess, but no I didn't notice it was particularly rainy.Warm, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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