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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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Could actually see a nice stretch of wintry weather for the interior beginning the 18th. Nice cutter fest on the 06z gfs LR.

I'll happily take any storm post super torch. Record temps are nice but the weather has been so mundane lately.

 

Cutter and suppressed coastal to our SE seems to be the storm pattern here recently.

But that's what happens when you pump such a strong ridge over the Northeast.

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Cutter and suppressed coastal to our SE seems to be the storm pattern here recently.

But that's what happens when you pump such a strong ridge over the Northeast.

I think you could get development on the EC around day 9 ish but with a bad air mass In front and behind it that looks like a favorable interior /NE system if it does take shape.

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I think you could get development on the EC around day 9 ish but with a bad air mass In front and behind it that looks like a favorable interior /NE system if it does take shape.

 

It's possible. But the OP models have been very erratic on individual storm details past 120 hrs.

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The OP is S. The ensembles bring it.

I think If you it by day 7 it's something that we could pull out of banter.

 

At some point the STJ will find an opening and we could get more of a hugger track than we have been seeing.

We could really use the rain since NYC is down -10.47 for precipitation this year with drought conditions

persisting.

PRECIPITATION (IN)  YESTERDAY        0.00          2.54 2014   0.13  -0.13       MONTH TO DATE    0.47                      1.25  -0.78       SINCE DEC 1      0.47                      1.25  -0.78      SINCE JAN 1     36.72                     47.19 -10.47    
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Could actually see a nice stretch of wintry weather for the interior beginning the 18th. Nice cutter fest on the 06z gfs LR.

I'll happily take any storm post super torch. Record temps are nice but the weather has been so mundane lately.

No cutters on the 6z GFS for the long range.

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6z GFS is great for the interior and SNE for next week's storm and in the long range. Storm after Storm after Storm. Very active pattern.

This is the heart break at the coast period of the winter. Still right on schedule. The you want to be elevated and inland period.

Again, have been planning for this.

We need to see water temps cool as well as overall climatology before it's the coasts turn

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This is the heart break at the coast period of the winter. Still right on schedule. The you want to be elevated and inland period.

Again, have been planning for this.

We need to see water temps cool as well as overall climatology before it's the coasts turn

Agree although I wouldn't rule out anything with the storms coming up. Inland areas have a better shot of some snowfall. Our time is January - March.

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with the ao forecast to go a little negative next week there could be some break in the warmth...the forecast for later on in the month is not so good...One member is as high as +5 for the AO...it could be a rouge member or its on to something...If we don't get any measurable snow in December this year will join a dubious club...

Latest measurable snowfall in Central Park...

date......winter......amount......enso

1/04/1878.............0.1"...........el nino.........at least 0.1" before it turned to rain...

1/08/1886.............3.1"...........el nino

1/06/1892.............3.5"...........weak positive...

1/03/1944.............3.9"...........weak negative...

1/20/1966.............0.4"...........el nino...

1/05/1972.............1.0"...........la nina...

1/29/1973.............1.8"...........el nino...

1/11/1995.............0.2"...........el nino...

1/18/1998.............0.5"...........el nino...

1/20/2000.............2.5"...........la nina...

1/07/2002.............0.5"...........neutral...

1/19/2007.............0.4"...........el nino...

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with the ao forecast to go a little negative next week there could be some break in the warmth...the forecast for later on in the month is not so good...One member is as high as +5 for the AO...it could be a rouge member or its on to something...If we don't get any measurable snow in December this year will join a dubious club...

Latest measurable snowfall in Central Park...

date......winter......amount......enso

1/04/1878.............0.1"...........el nino.........at least 0.1" before it turned to rain...

1/08/1886.............3.1"...........el nino

1/06/1892.............3.5"...........weak positive...

1/03/1944.............3.9"...........weak negative...

1/20/1966.............0.4"...........el nino...

1/05/1972.............1.0"...........la nina...

1/29/1973.............1.8"...........el nino...

1/11/1995.............0.2"...........el nino...

1/18/1998.............0.5"...........el nino...

1/20/2000.............2.5"...........la nina...

1/07/2002.............0.5"...........neutral...

1/19/2007.............0.4"...........el nino...

Some additional statistics concerning the above winters:

 

Mean seasonal snowfall: 14.6"

Median seasonal snowfall: 14.4"

Lowest seasonal snowfall: 2.8", 1972-73

Highest seasonal snowfall: 25.4", 1891-92

 

Cases:

< 10" seasonal snowfall: 33% (75% of them were El Niño winters)

< 20" seasonal snowfall:  58% (71% of them were El Niño winters)

< 30" seasonal snowfall: 100%

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Some additional statistics concerning the above winters:

 

Mean seasonal snowfall: 14.6"

Median seasonal snowfall: 14.4"

Lowest seasonal snowfall: 2.8", 1972-73

Highest seasonal snowfall: 25.4", 1891-92

 

Cases:

< 10" seasonal snowfall: 33% (75% of them were El Niño winters)

< 20" seasonal snowfall:  58% (71% of them were El Niño winters)

< 30" seasonal snowfall: 100%

I liked 1965-66 as an analog but we would need a reversal in the AO in January...the only 10" plus storm was in Feb. 1995...March 1892 had a 10" storm in parts of the city...maybe we could sneak in one cold week with a little snow before Christmas...that happened in 1930 and 1998...Good thing Central park recorded a 32 degree temperature already because there isn't any cold in the short term and the latest 32 or lower day would be in jeopardy...

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Once again we are dealing with model fantasy cold and snowstorms and regime shifts at day 10 and beyond that never move forward in time and just stay stuck there day after day. This is 2011-2012 deja vu

That lasted basically all season. Bit it's December and most of us expected a "torch" and maybe a step down by very late December into early to mid January. I'm not confident in any call right now but this seems to be going as planned by many posters.

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12z Euro says welcome to cutterville. But we can really use the rain to help NYC

work down the 10 inch precipitation deficit for the year.

Cutters would be good for several reason-knock down the drought, give us something else to talk about for a change, and sometimes herald in a better pattern...

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