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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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It is a godawful pattern we're in. I mean wow. Just the possibility of the warmest Dec on record is stomach turning if you like snowstorms. 

 

 

I appreciate the longwave pattern is really, really bad across NA and especially eastern NA.  And I also appreciate the next 7 days look substantially warmer than the past 7 days based on every forecast everywhere.

 

But, speaking for IAD, the cumulative departure the past 7 days is +1.6 and we've been below freezing on 6 out of 7 days.  Here in Leesburg I think yesterday's high was a drizzly wet 43*.  Today is the first day in a while that has seemed unseasonably mild at least to me.

 

Based on all the despair, I would have expected to be in shorts and flip flops unimpeded for the past 3 weeks.  But, outside of a few notably warm days after Thanksgiving, we've been basically near climo in terms of occurrent wx.  Not disputing there is some sustained and real unseasonable warmth on the way, but given all the LR progs from 3 weeks ago it's amazing to me we have not been a whole lot warmer here already. 

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I appreciate the longwave pattern is really, really bad across NA and especially eastern NA.  And I also appreciate the next 7 days look substantially warmer than the past 7 days based on every forecast everywhere.

 

But, speaking for IAD, the cumulative departure the past 7 days is +1.6 and we've been below freezing on 6 out of 7 days.  Here in Leesburg I think yesterday's high was a drizzly wet 43*.  Today is the first day in a while that has seemed unseasonably mild at least to me.

 

Based on all the despair, I would have expected to be in shorts and flip flops unimpeded for the past 3 weeks.  But, outside of a few notably warm days after Thanksgiving, we've been basically near climo in terms of occurrent wx.  Not disputing there is some sustained and real unseasonable warmth on the way, but given all the LR progs from 3 weeks ago it's amazing to me we have not been a whole lot warmer here already. 

I don't think people complaining really care if we are 45 or 65, its the pattern and how close/far we are from having any chance at snow.  We are in a sustained pattern that offers absolutely no chance at any frozen precip and so regardless of surface temps people are frustrated. 

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you're no weenie

getouta here you faker!

LOL... I drove out to deep creek lake a couple times in the fall to see early snow.  A few years ago for Sandy and several years before that for a late October snowstorm, also drove from Penn State up to Ithica to see snow in November once but I think my bar is set at at least a few inches. 

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I don't think people complaining really care if we are 45 or 65, its the pattern and how close/far we are from having any chance at snow.  We are in a sustained pattern that offers absolutely no chance at any frozen precip and so regardless of surface temps people are frustrated. 

 

Exactly. It's not about departures. It's the fact that the entire continent has been roasting in the mid levels and we're staring down another week+ of zero chances. Combine that with a LW pattern that really needs a complete overhaul to get even remotely right and it gets on the nerves a little

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I don't think people complaining really care if we are 45 or 65, its the pattern and how close/far we are from having any chance at snow.  We are in a sustained pattern that offers absolutely no chance at any frozen precip and so regardless of surface temps people are frustrated. 

 

I guess the point is we've been far warmer relative to normal under supposedly far less hostile longwave patterns.  And it hasn't been all that wet either, I can certainly remember 97-98 and this does not seem to compare.  It's just hard to have a 2001-02 level of despair over a week or two of warm wx, when we had the same thing in other El Nino Decembers as recently as 02-03.

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nothing good, has a 2-3 day cold shot but its dry and transient and is about to warm back up by day 10

The euro is normal temps for a few days then it's getting ready to go back to the same warm background pattern we have been in by day 10. Wash, rinse repeat on this run, transient shot then back to status quo. This is becoming troubling
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The start to Dec has mainly been a good reminder that high heights don't necessarily mean nonstop torch this time of year. Inversions have kept plenty of places from putting up big departures but it's been hostile to snow either way. Overall pattern has not been like 97-98 at all either really but not sure that means much.

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The euro is normal temps for a few days then it's getting ready to go back to the same warm background pattern we have been in by day 10. Wash, rinse repeat on this run, transient shot then back to status quo. This is becoming troubling

I don't see any major sign of a pattern change of any note. Looks to me like we are still just rolling back through the same type of pattern but heading into prime climo so any breaks might offer a glimmer of hope. Maybe a slight eastward shift with time which might bode well for tracking stuff at least. The longer range progs on the euro ensembles suck. But january didn't look 'the worst' on monthlies so I will reserve judgment by that period for now.
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Looks like some are starting to think a major pattern change will happen around the 20th of December. 

 

Such as in this post it's the second post down. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/Wxeast/

 

Also check out Allan Huffman's twitter page he's not saying major pattern changed but shows coldest air mass of the season so far.

 

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx

 

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2  big step backs since the 00z euro and 6z Gfs. this winter sucks 

 

You cannot rely on operational models as they keep changing. The best thing to do is follow the ensembles. Even if the eastern US doesn't see a major pattern change as least their is lots of cold air in Canada so it's only a matter of time. 

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I don't see any major sign of a pattern change of any note. Looks to me like we are still just rolling back through the same type of pattern but heading into prime climo so any breaks might offer a glimmer of hope. Maybe a slight eastward shift with time which might bode well for tracking stuff at least. The longer range progs on the euro ensembles suck. But january didn't look 'the worst' on monthlies so I will reserve judgment by that period for now.

 

Weeklies should be interesting. d15 h5 plot from the 0z ens suite wasn't awful and that's what the weeklies extend out another 2 weeks. I'm hoping week 3 agrees with what I'm thinking/hoping that the conus trough axis continues east and the low heights in the GOA continue west...and a pretty ridge forms in the pna/epo area...lol

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Weeklies should be interesting. d15 h5 plot from the 0z ens suite wasn't awful and that's what the weeklies extend out another 2 weeks. I'm hoping week 3 agrees with what I'm thinking/hoping that the conus trough axis continues east and the low heights in the GOA continue west...and a pretty ridge forms in the pna/epo area...lol

I agree that the GFS looks at least a smidge better long range. Same thing we've been talking about mainly all the axes shifting east or northeast a bit. If that comes to fruition we should at least start getting in on the LP train better. Probably still need some luck to get one to go underneath us just right but better odds than we have before any sort of shift it seems. Just not sure I buy it tho it has been advertised off and on a while now so it must happen at some point right? ;P

 

12z Euro ens still a disaster throughout. Gotta squint to make something good out of 360.

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Weeklies should be interesting. d15 h5 plot from the 0z ens suite wasn't awful and that's what the weeklies extend out another 2 weeks. I'm hoping week 3 agrees with what I'm thinking/hoping that the conus trough axis continues east and the low heights in the GOA continue west...and a pretty ridge forms in the pna/epo area...lol

 

Yeah, it's pretty hard to write off anything entirely after the 20th or so at this point.  Right now, many of the climate models are reacting to the severe heat moving through the country, but viewing several operational runs suggesting ridge movement NW is a step.  A true pattern change usually starts with transient bursts of cold air.  If you look at this next 5 days as rock bottom, it helps with the pain.

 

Of course, The CFSV2 is currently showing a massive EC ski-resort failure all the way to the middle of January.  It's monthly consistency is rightfully giving many pause. 

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Weeklies should be interesting. d15 h5 plot from the 0z ens suite wasn't awful and that's what the weeklies extend out another 2 weeks. I'm hoping week 3 agrees with what I'm thinking/hoping that the conus trough axis continues east and the low heights in the GOA continue west...and a pretty ridge forms in the pna/epo area...lol

as long as I keep seeing a ridge over SE Asia, things will be naso hot around here

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The dipole persistence that's basically opposite of the last two winters is remarkable so far and I guess it'll continue given strong Nino climo. Whatever shift here or there I feel like I've been looking at this pattern forever at 360 on EPS give or take a blip or two.

 

b1IYlL8.gif

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The dipole persistence that's basically opposite of the last two winters is remarkable so far and I guess it'll continue given strong Nino climo. Whatever shift here or there I feel like I've been looking at this pattern forever at 360 on EPS give or take a blip or two.

 

b1IYlL8.gif

ive seen this map everyday for past 8 weeks

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