uncle W Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 the ao is forecast to be very high again...But heads back down in the long run...One member drops to almost -4...I doubt that happens but if it does it's a game changer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 The rain should rapidly end from West to East over the next hour. How's your fog? Very heavy and dense fog just rolled in here. 1.25" total so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 So, this is where we stand wrt H5 anomalies after the first 7 days of the month. I'm interested in how the month as a whole pans out. I'll post this again once we have 14 days. I decided to just wait until up to the 15th was available since its basically the halfway point. I'm only keeping track of how things are progressing with these posts and how the month as a whole is panning out. No matter how unfavorable, or favorable, depending on your point of view. So, from top to bottom: Dec 1-7 Dec 7-15 Dec 1-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 the ao is forecast to be very high again...But heads back down in the long run...One member drops to almost -4...I doubt that happens but if it does it's a game changer... We'll likely get one more warm spell around New Years before the pattern shifts and we return to more seasonal temperatures. I don't see any sustained Arctic blasts, but at least it looks stormier. It doesn't take much cold air to get a snowstorm in mid-January, especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 0.88" in the park so far. Still a lot to come. This was underdone. 1.21" on the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Picked up 1.05" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 1.21" on the last hour.1.25" total in the park. It overperformed for a change.We didn't even have a separate thread for the "deluge"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 1.25" total in the park. It overperformed for a change. We didn't even have a separate thread for the "deluge"... Exactly what I got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Only +18 today in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 18z GFS has some minor accumulations on Saturday for central LI, and far northwestern sections of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Only +18 today in the city. Meh pedestrian numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 18z GFS has some minor accumulations on Saturday for central LI, and far northwestern sections of the forum. Wow, I heard Lake Effect bands might push through the area tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Yeah, this is on track to be a very extreme record warmth event. Most of warmest months on record are only a few tenths to a degree warmer than the previous record. Yes it's truly remarkable and most people don't even realize it. The persistence has by far been the most impressive factor because we've seen warm several Dec days in the 60s and a few 70s. But we've never had very warm/record temps+ monthly duration before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 This is by far the best week four that we've seen in a long, long time. Is it perfect? Absolutely not, but it shows a change over Canada that would hopefully usher in some seasonal air Fingers crossed. The 57-58 analog is really catching my eye Sent from my SM-G925V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 This is by far the best week four that we've seen in a long, long time. Is it perfect? Absolutely not, but it shows a change over Canada that would hopefully usher in some seasonal air Fingers crossed. The 57-58 analog is really catching my eye Sent from my SM-G925V That would be a huge change if correct. We have a +PNA with an active southern stream. The NAO is positive but we can still do ok in that pattern. It's a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 I wonder if my little banter cheering section see the NEG EPO develop on the weeklies around the 1st. I hate when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I wonder if my little banter cheering section see the NEG EPO develop in the weeklies around the 1st. I hate when that happens. Please please say it's true. I'm sure the guys that plow your estates are praying for it too!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Please please say it's true. I'm sure the guys that plow your estates are praying for it too!! The EPO does go NEG on the weeklies. Around the 1st. Looks as if 850 anomalies after the 5th which are weeks 3 and 4 go from +2 to N which is workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 JFK's 59° reading ties the daily record set in 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 I wonder if my little banter cheering section see the NEG EPO develop on the weeklies around the 1st. I hate when that happens. Dude, in all seriousness stop being so cocky about the weather. It's like you think it's obeying your every order and command and it's going to happen because you said so. I was like that somewhat but I learned my lesson in humility. Mother Nature has a way of winning in the end you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Around this time last year the Euro weeklies I think briefly showed improvement at week 4 or so and then ended up showing a torch again on week 3 and 4 the ensuing week. As it turns out they were more or less correct, it ended up being closer to week 5 from this point when we really began turning it around minus that one cold spell around the 8th we moderated again til the 20th. I wouldn't be surprised if again its closer to the 20th-25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Dude, in all seriousness stop being so cocky about the weather. It's like you think it's obeying your every order and command and it's going to happen because you said so. I was like that somewhat but I learned my lesson in humility. Mother Nature has a way of winning in the end you know Dude its weather. If I blow up do you think I care. Is anyone else really effected. It's a weather board visited and opined by lovers of weather. You don't find humor in seeing people who don't like you have to eat your sht when you verify ? It really isn't a big deal. That said if the pattern once again evolves towards my idea , don`t blame the messenger . Now the EPO is going NEG so get out of here and go get your shine box. JK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Around this time last year the Euro weeklies I think briefly showed improvement at week 4 or so and then ended up showing a torch again on week 3 and 4 the ensuing week. As it turns out they were more or less correct, it ended up being closer to week 5 from this point when we really began turning it around minus that one cold spell around the 8th we moderated again til the 20th. I wouldn't be surprised if again its closer to the 20th-25th. I am not saying it's right. But week 3 followed in line with last week's week 4. So you do want to see the model replicate some recycling in the PAC as we get closer and week 3 hints at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 lol shine box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Na na na..you insulted him a little bit,,,little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 This is by far the best week four that we've seen in a long, long time. Is it perfect? Absolutely not, but it shows a change over Canada that would hopefully usher in some seasonal air Fingers crossed. The 57-58 analog is really catching my eye Sent from my SM-G925V looks similar to the busted week 4 forecast from november valid this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 In a much more realistic timeframe, the 0z gfs has cranked up the heat again especially for Xmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Around this time last year the Euro weeklies I think briefly showed improvement at week 4 or so and then ended up showing a torch again on week 3 and 4 the ensuing week. As it turns out they were more or less correct, it ended up being closer to week 5 from this point when we really began turning it around minus that one cold spell around the 8th we moderated again til the 20th. I wouldn't be surprised if again its closer to the 20th-25th. Once the pattern switched, it never went back. Cold and snowy until April. We had near 20 inches of snow last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Once the pattern switched, it never went back. Cold and snowy until April. We had near 20 inches of snow last March.[/quoe]fond memories of last year I know pattern was different but heck anything still possible. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Really impressive to see 17 out of 18 days in December in NYC with a high above 50 degrees. Looks like only Saturday and Sunday will stay below 50 before more 50's and 60's next week. NYC is at 12.4 and the warmth over the remainder of the month should keep the monthly Departure at +10 or greater. it's possible some areas reach 70 degrees if we get enough breaks of sun on the warmest day next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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