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E PA/NJ/DE/ Non Storm OBS thread


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this is not a good by post because anthony as he ONLY post the one map from the CMC that has snow for the NE BIG CITIES

In fact the 12z CMC shows a lot of RAIN for I-95 up to NYC

the 500 low closed over over ILL/ IND OH and does not drop nearly as far south as the EURO euro EPS or GEFS shows

attachicon.gifgem_z500_vort_us_26.png

attachicon.gifgem_T850_us_29.png

850s are sub freezing entire event, 1000-500 thicknesses are ideal, 2m air temps are 33f give or take. Not sure exactly where you are seeing plain rain and "lots of it" on this model run? You would know better than me, so im not saying you are wrong. I just thought as long as thicknesses and 850s are good, it could still snow with above freezing 2m air temps in the low to mid 30s?

In any event, isnt it a little early to be discussing rain/snow lines?

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 RALPH  12z  CMC    has the    Low over   SBY at    168  HRS 

  synoptically  if you think having the low on the  eastern MD coast like that is   good for  Middle Atlantic...


Heck  the   12z OP CMC doesnt  not  even match its own  ensembles  for   pete sake

 

 

post-9415-0-15078200-1452988585_thumb.pn

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RALPH 12z CMC has the Low over SBY at 168 HRS

synoptically if you think having the low on the eastern MD coast like that is good for Middle Atlantic...

Heck the 12z OP CMC doesnt not even match its own ensembles for pete sake

attachicon.gif12zggem156.png

Agree with the part about a low in SBY being in a piss poor spot for big city snows. However, your statement suggested the CMC verbatim was a mostly rain event which it clearly was not. So we have the op ggem and gfs tucked tight to the coast while the euro, eps, gefs, and geps are all ots.

Fun week of tracking coming up!

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And the GGEM takes primary to Pittsburgh...thump to heavy rain to period of snow at end verbatim.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

I want to say it's good to have some counter balance to the favored route here OTS, but the GGEM is awful 

 

Hope the GFS doesn't lose like the Packers

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Didn't a few of last years storms start out this way only to end up jackpotting upstate New York and New England?

Precisely my point. And already in the back of my head are the models that are showing snow to rain.....while jackpotting up North as you alluded to. I am being EXTREMELY cautious with this system for now. Too much can still go wrong. Not saying it's a trend but it is a little concerning that nearly every model and ens mean tossed the OTS solutions in just 6 hours. Goes to show how quickly track etc can change. I expect TONS of changes with respect to the evolution and final forecast of this system. Expectations tempered and low for now. 

 

With that said the 6z GEFS look very nice  :weenie:

 

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_25.png

 

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_26.png

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For some reason, I like gravitating towards looking at some of the environmental impactors during the periods of uncertainty - e.g.,

 

NAO (forecast to go neutral/positive in that timeframe)

 

post-1915-0-25322100-1453043708_thumb.gi

 

AO (forecast to go neutral/slightly positive in that timeframe)

 

post-1915-0-32217200-1453043756_thumb.gi

 

PNA (forecast to stay positive in that timeframe)

 

post-1915-0-30246800-1453044305_thumb.gi

 

MJO (forecast weak and possibly heading towards phase 1 - both op and ens)

 

post-1915-0-30038400-1453045354_thumb.gi

 

I.e., Based on the current and forecast, the early part of this week might have been the most optimum time to get a biggun' if the storm were in the vicinity right now, although being in a strong El Nino regime, the typical indicators have varying effect.  Otherwise it seems indicators are pointing to warming next weekend, although such a storm could herald a pattern change to the much-advertised torch.

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The weather's gonna do what the weather's gonna do. I'd feel much more comfortable at this range if next weekend's storm was modeled to be a near miss to our south. My fear is this ends up tracking a little further north and we end up in the 50's with rain. But hey ...

 

It's been an uneventful winter so far and at least we have something to track. Let's just take it one model suite at a time and hope for the best.

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Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z

Nervous about a south trend coming I need a strong drink

Come on both you and I know this is heading south and weaker and you and I will be tracking El Nino fueled severe weather in July and we will say remember in January when the silly Euro was giving us 26" of snow...get a drink for the 0z runs a very strong one.

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Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z

 

Nervous about a south trend coming I need a strong drink

Ha, you're not the only one edgy about the model runs. I'm waiting for that trend that jackpots the 95 corridor and leaves the Poconos on NW high and dry...

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