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E PA/NJ/DE/ Non Storm OBS thread

Quakertown needs snow

By Quakertown needs snow,
in Philadelphia Region

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

I truly believe this 22nd-23rd system is the real deal. ALL the models have a low. GFS & Canadian now show snow for most of the area (going over to rain for city). but big snows 4 the burbs. If we get the EURO on board tonight I'll start to get excited even if it is way out there. IMO it WON'T be a classic type MECS since we don't have all the ingredients, but we have a VERY cold antecedent air mass, and some mild confluence. What we DO have which we NEVER saw with any of the storms this week when they were in the LR is a HP to the N. This potential Day 8-9 storm has a legit HP showing up so...

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Morch Madness

Morch Madness

Posted
Posted

I truly believe this 22nd-23rd system is the real deal. ALL the models have a low. GFS & Canadian now show snow for most of the area (going over to rain for city). but big snows 4 the burbs. If we get the EURO on board tonight I'll start to get excited even if it is way out there. IMO it WON'T be a classic type MECS since we don't have all the ingredients, but we have a VERY cold antecedent air mass, and some mild confluence. What we DO have which we NEVER saw with any of the storms this week when they were in the LR is a HP to the N. This potential Day 8-9 storm has a legit HP showing up so...

 

Yeah this would not be a MECS, but a quick, intense, moisture-packed bomb. Could be a really nice storm.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

I truly believe this 22nd-23rd system is the real deal. ALL the models have a low. GFS & Canadian now show snow for most of the area (going over to rain for city). but big snows 4 the burbs. If we get the EURO on board tonight I'll start to get excited even if it is way out there. IMO it WON'T be a classic type MECS since we don't have all the ingredients, but we have a VERY cold antecedent air mass, and some mild confluence. What we DO have which we NEVER saw with any of the storms this week when they were in the LR is a HP to the N. This potential Day 8-9 storm has a legit HP showing up so...

Which ingredients are lacking? We have a neg nao relaxing, a pos pna, a neg epo, active stj with 'pineapple connection', active amplifying northern jet, above normal sst's sitting off the coast for added fuel, cold hp to the north, mild confluence in a near ideal spot. Aside from a true 50/50 low Im not sure what u are defining as missing key ingredients here?
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baseball0618

baseball0618

Posted
Posted

Talking to myself again lol. 

 

EPS are in agreement with other guidance and ens for a storm Jan 22-23. Faster with bringing energy out of West/Southwest than the Euro OP and great signal imho for a SECS/MECS. We have 7 days to hammer out details.....lets not lose this one to the fish of the Great Lakes!  :popcorn:

Don't get your hopes up unless you like to shovel rain.  Maybe a front end dump then a flip to rain, but cold air is going to be a big problem IMO  

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
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Don't get your hopes up unless you like to shovel rain. Maybe a front end dump then a flip to rain, but cold air is going to be a big problem IMO

You could end up being right but we need to keep the storm signal at least thru Sunday 12z then we can begin to hammer out the details (precipitation type, track, etc). We're in a good spot in terms of agreement right now at this range....about all you can ask for.

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baseball0618

baseball0618

Posted
Posted

You could end up being right but we need to keep the storm signal at least thru Sunday 12z then we can begin to hammer out the details (precipitation type, track, etc). We're in a good spot in terms of agreement right now at this range....about all you can ask for.

Disagree.  You have a low tracking towards the lakes hitting a retreating block at 9 Days out.  In this pattern and how this winter has been unfolding that is not a good spot to be in IMO.  

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

Disagree. You have a low tracking towards the lakes hitting a retreating block at 9 Days out. In this pattern and how this winter has been unfolding that is not a good spot to be in IMO.

Hmmmm, could you post the maps of the system going into the Great Lakes (ensemble mean preferred over any op). Maybe I overlooked it?

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baseball0618

baseball0618

Posted
Posted

And I said post the maps :-)

The premise of my statement is what I believe is going to eventually unfold not what the ensembles at day 9 might show right now.  You can clearly see however that as modeled this is a primary low that tracks to the west and then there is a transfer to the coast.  Per the GFS it portrays there being enough of a block and cold air around that it is an all snow event.  I think that as time progresses we will see this become a wetter evolution for our area based on the things I mentioned earlier with the block breaking down and the cold air source being marginal.  I may be wrong and hope I am but all I am saying is temper your expectations. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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The premise of my statement is what I believe is going to eventually unfold not what the ensembles at day 9 might show right now. You can clearly see however that as modeled this is a primary low that tracks to the west and then there is a transfer to the coast. Per the GFS it portrays there being enough of a block and cold air around that it is an all snow event. I think that as time progresses we will see this become a wetter evolution for our area based on the things I mentioned earlier with the block breaking down and the cold air source being marginal. I may be wrong and hope I am but all I am saying is temper your expectations.

Understood. I was scratching my head because there wasn't one piece of data (maybe an individual ens member?) That I looked at that showed your scenario of a primary low headed towards the GL region in regards to Jan 22-23. Its all good.....but yes, I hope your assumptions are incorrect and I mean that respectfully :-)

Agreed though, temper expectations. If its still on the progs come Sunday afternoon, then we can start getting more serious in terms of tracking. Til then, its nice fantasy in what has become a blah season thus far in terms of snowfall.

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Hurricane Agnes

Hurricane Agnes

Posted
Posted

Not concerned yet at this range.....typical euro bias. If the EPS join the op for a few runs then yeah.....

 

Have any of them taken into account the freak January Hurricane (Alex) that formed today near the Azores progged to head N and then NW?  That should tell you what kind of winter we're having! :lmao:

post-1915-0-32754600-1452800690_thumb.jp

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DTWXRISK

DTWXRISK

Posted
Posted
LETS MONGER !!    ** ABOUT JAN 22-23 ** *INFORMED  DISCUSSION /  SPECULATION**  

 

POINT #1    This system for JAN 22-23 has been showing up on the various long range weather models for several days.  As we all know by now an Arctic outbreak is headed for the Midwest and the East Coast which arrives on Sunday and stays in place for most of next week.  This arctic air mass is a critical difference between the system for January 22-23 and the previous weather systems  over the last 10 days which at  point LOOKED like they  MIGHT bring some sort of winter weather  to portions of the East Coast .  

 

If you go back and take a look at most of the significant East Coast winter storms over the past 70 years... most of   feature  arctic or semi Arctic air in place BEFORE the storm actually began.  Occasionally  there will be some situations of rain changing the snow or the cold air arriving   "just in the nick of time"    but for the most part the vast majority of significant East Coast winter storms have occurred when the Arctic air is in place BEFORE  the event ever begins.

 

 POINT # 2     this    system...  no matter  if it actually  RAIN  or SNOW ...  appears to be a classic GULF /   East Coast LOW  ( referred to in the wx biz  as  MILLER A TYPE).  These  sorts of LOWs are much more favorable for significant winter weather across portions of NV VA  WVA MD DEL as well as into se PA and NJ 

 

POINT #3  the second critical issue or variable with regard to  this possible  JAN  22-23... is  the **  TIMING ***   As impressive as the cold air is next week ... it is  not going to last forever.  The Southern System coming out of Texas and the Gulf coast will have to arrive in time so the cold air is still in place over the Middle Atlantic  states. 

 

This  FIRST image is the operational or  **regular **  European model from Thursday afternoon.  As you can see it shows a rain storm for the entire East Coast for January 23-24.  The reason for this has to do with the upper air pattern.  The regular European model slows as this LOW down by over developing it in the upper levels the atmosphere into what  is called  a   ***  CUTOFF LOW***.  These sorts a systems move very slowly and as a result by the time the southern LOW reaches the Carolina Coast.... all the cold air is gone and the rain snow line is north of Albany in Northern New York State and over Northern New England!

 

post-9415-0-21911600-1452813528_thumb.pn

 

 

 

However lets  looks at   IMAGE #2  shows the European ENSEMBLE from this Thursday afternoons model run.  As you can see it has a **vastly** different setup and shows a major snowstorm underway across portions of the Ohio Valley... the Tennessee Valley ...all the middle Atlantic...  and a good portion of New England  JAN 22-23. 

 

post-9415-0-42572200-1452813538_thumb.pn

 

 

The difference here is NUMBER #3  that the European Ensemble does NOT slow the southern LOW down.  The Low  keeps moving which means that it arrives when the cold air  is still in place across the East Coast ---and that results in a major snowstorm.

 

post-9415-0-01331300-1452813543_thumb.jp

 

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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted

Im on the edge of my seat in anticipation! This is akin to waiting for whether Punxatawney Phil will see his shadow or not. Forget about getting any sleep tonight now.

Fireworks go off in Qtown after the call come on up!

 

Btw I DID NOT hit the cancel button the last two Januaries so look how well that worked out

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The Iceman

The Iceman

Posted
Posted

 

LETS MONGER !!    ** ABOUT JAN 22-23 ** *INFORMED  DISCUSSION /  SPECULATION**  
 
POINT #1    This system for JAN 22-23 has been showing up on the various long range weather models for several days.  As we all know by now an Arctic outbreak is headed for the Midwest and the East Coast which arrives on Sunday and stays in place for most of next week.  This arctic air mass is a critical difference between the system for January 22-23 and the previous weather systems  over the last 10 days which at  point LOOKED like they  MIGHT bring some sort of winter weather  to portions of the East Coast .  
 
If you go back and take a look at most of the significant East Coast winter storms over the past 70 years... most of   feature  arctic or semi Arctic air in place BEFORE the storm actually began.  Occasionally  there will be some situations of rain changing the snow or the cold air arriving   "just in the nick of time"    but for the most part the vast majority of significant East Coast winter storms have occurred when the Arctic air is in place BEFORE  the event ever begins.
 
 POINT # 2     this    system...  no matter  if it actually  RAIN  or SNOW ...  appears to be a classic GULF /   East Coast LOW  ( referred to in the wx biz  as  MILLER A TYPE).  These  sorts of LOWs are much more favorable for significant winter weather across portions of NV VA  WVA MD DEL as well as into se PA and NJ 
 
POINT #3  the second critical issue or variable with regard to  this possible  JAN  22-23... is  the **  TIMING ***   As impressive as the cold air is next week ... it is  not going to last forever.  The Southern System coming out of Texas and the Gulf coast will have to arrive in time so the cold air is still in place over the Middle Atlantic  states. 
 
This  FIRST image is the operational or  **regular **  European model from Thursday afternoon.  As you can see it shows a rain storm for the entire East Coast for January 23-24.  The reason for this has to do with the upper air pattern.  The regular European model slows as this LOW down by over developing it in the upper levels the atmosphere into what  is called  a   ***  CUTOFF LOW***.  These sorts a systems move very slowly and as a result by the time the southern LOW reaches the Carolina Coast.... all the cold air is gone and the rain snow line is north of Albany in Northern New York State and over Northern New England!
 
 
 
 
However lets  looks at   IMAGE #2  shows the European ENSEMBLE from this Thursday afternoons model run.  As you can see it has a **vastly** different setup and shows a major snowstorm underway across portions of the Ohio Valley... the Tennessee Valley ...all the middle Atlantic...  and a good portion of New England  JAN 22-23. 
 
 
 
The difference here is NUMBER #3  that the European Ensemble does NOT slow the southern LOW down.  The Low  keeps moving which means that it arrives when the cold air  is still in place across the East Coast ---and that results in a major snowstorm.
 

 

Great post, thank you for sharing DT. with how progressive the pattern has been this season, I think that favors the euro's cut off solution being unlikely.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

One of the best/most accurate models in the world is showing a MECS borderline HECS for much of the region in its ensemble mean yet some folks are already writing this Jan 22-23 threat off based off of the 18z GFS operational model. I kinda get it, we are in a little snow drought and the first real substantial snowfall is behind schedule this season...people are skeptical and tempering expectations. Rightfully so....but just wow. This potential actually appears to have some legs. Im not 100% sold yet but the strong signal is there for someone from GA to ME to get popped next week. Most people here love to just have something to track. Here is your chance to track something. Get on the roller coaster, it should be a fun ride this week with plenty of ups and downs.

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