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E PA/NJ/DE/ Non Storm OBS thread


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I'm running to the store as I type to beat the rush. redsky, you better make sure you have gas in the blower :popcorn: but seriously, it's fun to look at and signifies the potential we have in the next two weeks. I'd be very surprised if we don't see anything out of it. If that 1039 high in canada is progged further east in the coming days, I'll start to get hyped but that set up verbatim, would be snow to rain for a lot of folks imo.

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In all seriousness, I think most of us here realize that this solution has about a 5% chance of verifying for our region. Get us within 3 days and we can talk. GEFS have a signal too which I would lean more heavily on than the 18z gfs op. Still good potential coming with a west-based -nao taking shape and the STJ full of activity.

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Still looking for a trace on the season and the GFS gives me 37" of digital snow :lmao: that's a new high for fake snow

 

It means nothing but the 312hr event has made it to 240. Sure looks like somebody in the northeast is in for a big storm pieces of a good pattern are in place.

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Still looking for a trace on the season and the GFS gives me 37" of digital snow :lmao: that's a new high for fake snow

 

It means nothing but the 312hr event has made it to 240. Sure looks like somebody in the northeast is in for a big storm pieces of a good pattern are in place.

I am sure there has to be some sleet in there???  (sense the sarcasm!)

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GFS has a parade of southern stream storms in the LR with blocking and cold air. I'd be shocked if we don't get a decent storm in the next two weeks. Pattern is screaming it.

 

My highs have been higher than expected so far this winter and my lows have been lower than expected.

 

Even though I'm in the burbs of Philly I'll break 60+F Sunday....Philly 63-65F.

Record in philly is 63, I think there's a good shot at taking it.

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As I posted in NYC, would much rather have a near-phase job with a miss (timing issues) and being suppressed at this range as opposed to a cutter on the Euro OP in which 9 out of 10 times never recover to a favorable storm track for snow. I like the potential, I like our chances given the pattern and historic nao switch from strong pos in Nov to severe neg.

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Support for any big storm at the end of 12Z Euro run has dissipated. OTS with the PAC jet roaring.

no it hasn't . look at H5, not just the surface reflection. it's a near miss with the phase but the pieces are still there. as we get closer we will have better sampling of these pieces. there is still potential for a big storm with this system and discounting it based off one run of an OP is foolish. did you think it would show a major snowstorm for 20 straight runs?

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from Mt Holly NWS on Tuesday

 

AS TEMPERATURES DROP ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND ONTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THE SYSTEM APPEARS ROBUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION AT MANY LOCATIONS
. THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE
SEASON MAY OCCUR AT PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTIC CITY AND MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

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