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Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion


OHweather

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The good thing once you get into April is that it's pretty difficult to lock in true winter type cold for more than like 3-5 days, especially at our latitude...not talking about just being below average as there's a difference between that and winter type cold.

Exactly, which is why I don't give a damn what the models are showing at this junction because it will moderate as we get closer and will last a shorter period of time. Case in point the last cold snap that was supposed to crush the entire area. It lasted 2 days max before we were near normal again.

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Exactly, which is why I don't give a damn what the models are showing at this junction because it will moderate as we get closer and will last a shorter period of time. Case in point the last cold snap that was supposed to crush the entire area. It lasted 2 days max before we were near normal again.

Or its a repeat of April 1982..

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The GFS 2m temp progs are ugly around 9-10 days.  The good news is that it really can't get much worse so there's plenty of room for improvement.

 

Key in realizing the cold is the big ridge/block progged to occur into Alaska/western Canada.  Still several days before that's progged to occur but models have been pretty consistent in the general idea.

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Another snowstorm a week from now for Iowa and Wisconsin on the 18z GFS.

 

Models have been really hammering this idea of a cold open to April. -EPO is forecast to plunge, along with a -WPO.

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

 

Yeah can't get much worse then that!

 

gfs_T2ma_us_37.png

Thank god a quick recovery of both though.

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12z GFS with one of its more brutal runs yet.  850 mb temps bottom out around -20C to -22C in Chicago.  IF that were to verify, you'd be talking about highs struggling to reach the mid 20s (near record low maximum territory for April), and that assumes there's plenty of sun. 

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Nobody wants cold in April but we know the drill and deal with it and its normally short lived cool downs anyways. To myself its not perfect here but it sure beats living where its long swampy summers down south with 90+ degree days and humid 80% of the time 

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Anything blooming will be dead if that happens. What a crap spring.  I might try to cover some trees.

 

Yeah, you have fruit trees I know.

Thank goodness nothing but Crocuses have bloomed here. Daffodils have sprouted, but not bloomed.

 

EURO drops low temperatures to the mid teens in your area for Day 9 and 10.

 

Single digits just north of MSP.

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The 18z GFS was a touch...colder...  Jesus #$#$#... 

 

My apricots are swollen right now..the plums are too..peaches are starting..the apples/pears would *probably* be ok... The warmth this next week is not a good thing.  Any more movement (of the buds) and it just makes it worse.  I'll build structures around some trees...probably run some lights to keep some stuff warm.

 

Not sure where the fruits trees are in Michigan, but that is where the real damage can be done (see April 2012).

 

NWS MSP:

THE CFS AND OTHER LONG RANGE PROGS SUGGEST APRIL COMES IN LIKE A
LION WITH RESPECT TO COLD. THERE ARE IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES AT 850MB AS A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS MAKES ITS WAY INTO
MN/WI THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. COULD WE SEE A COUPLE DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S? THAT IS TOUGH TO DO WITH NO SNOW COVER IN APRIL.

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Would it be that bad if it only took hold for a day or two?

It only takes one night of a hard freeze (and this would be much colder than just a borderline hard freeze in a lot of areas verbatim) to kill anything sensitive. I'll be in Cleveland next weekend so I wouldn't mind some LES, but where was this 3 months ago??
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Most of the new buds around here are on native trees. These trees can easily handle cold snaps and are resilient. The fruit trees havnt even begun to flower or bud in some cases. No worries for the most part. Pretty much a lock that the advertised cold snap will be much warmer than currently modeled. There is also no lake ice or snow pack and it's worth noting, we have been busting low on temps all month. I would suspect that trend continues into early April, especially under a vibrant spring sun angle.

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