UMB WX Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 maybe we can avoid the afternoon lake breeze like morch 2012. 50's and rain ugh. good months to hit arizona coming up.. come back in july Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 maybe we can avoid the afternoon lake breeze like morch 2012. 50's and rain ugh. good months to hit arizona coming up.. come back in july I don't mind 50s at all in March. I just hope we don't have a bunch of days with a lake wind and rain. We could use some more moisture though. Pattern is way too progressive for a 2012 repeat. All kinds of storm systems in the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 From LSX Though still many days away...the pattern next week looks quite ominous with meridional flow throughout the troposphere. This would in turn supply much of the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley with tons of Gulf moisture. If the baroclinic zone does not progress much southeastward through the week...there will be more than enough rain to cause problems across the region as round after round of showers w/ possible embedded convection could affect many of the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 iirc Morch was largely a 10 day stretch of a camped out omega block. Persistence was huge for sure. It's one thing to get a few ridiculously warm days, but the sustainability was impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I don't mind 50s at all in March. I just hope we don't have a bunch of days with a lake wind and rain. We could use some more moisture though. Pattern is way too progressive for a 2012 repeat. All kinds of storm systems in the mid to long range. we will until we die or move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Time to put this thread to rest. We are now in met spring! Or do we follow astronomy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 While the sample size was small, it seems strong-very strong ninos are more often than not followed by La Niña of varying strength. The strong El Niño of 1972-1973 was followed by a strong La Niña during the winter of 1973-1974, the very strong El Niño of 1982-1983, was followed by a weak La Niña, and the very strong Nino of 1997-1998 was follow by a moderate La Niña 1998-1999. If the CFS were to be believed plotting these potential "analogs" yields a warm And wet eastern 1/3 of the country with near normal anomalies in he nations midsection. Plotting these 3 years yields these results temperature and precip patterns respectively: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 It also seems a moderate La Niña would be the best bet for a great winter. Two of the subs biggest blizzards occurred bring moderate La Ninas (1998-1999, 2010-2011). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 To compare the pattern this winter to past Super Ninos using the same intervals and scale As was expected... this El Nino was in a league of its own. The pattern echoed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 0Z GFS has Severe Weather at 234 across the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 and the 06Z GFS still has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGM Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 It looks like today will be the last day of true winter-like weather for this subforum, excluding any frosts/freezes you all get through April. The March 2012 repeat calls last month were pretty good. It looks like the next two weeks will definitely come close regarding warm anomalies. Widespread 60s and 70s are expected next week, and perhaps even warmer weather for the week following (March 12-19). Spring is here ands it is following the calendar this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 It looks like today will be the last day of true winter-like weather for this subforum, excluding any frosts/freezes you all get through April. The March 2012 repeat calls last month were pretty good. It looks like the next two weeks will definitely come close regarding warm anomalies. Widespread 60s and 70s are expected next week, and perhaps even warmer weather for the week following (March 12-19). Spring is here ands it is following the calendar this year. Yes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 While the sample size was small, it seems strong-very strong ninos are more often than not followed by La Niña of varying strength. The strong El Niño of 1972-1973 was followed by a strong La Niña during the winter of 1973-1974, the very strong El Niño of 1982-1983, was followed by a weak La Niña, and the very strong Nino of 1997-1998 was follow by a moderate La Niña 1998-1999. If the CFS were to be believed plotting these potential "analogs" yields a warm And wet eastern 1/3 of the country with near normal anomalies in he nations midsection. Plotting these 3 years yields these results temperature and precip patterns respectively: Looks like one common element: SE ridge. Should result in an active winter with intermittent cold and warm periods. Totally up my alley. Cannot stand being "locked" in any crappy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 Nothing resembling 2012 March anomalies is walking through the doors this month here or probably ever in my life. Way above avg yes.. but the duration 70's and 80's. .0000000001% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 6, 2016 Share Posted March 6, 2016 It looks like today will be the last day of true winter-like weather for this subforum, excluding any frosts/freezes you all get through April. The March 2012 repeat calls last month were pretty good. It looks like the next two weeks will definitely come close regarding warm anomalies. Widespread 60s and 70s are expected next week, and perhaps even warmer weather for the week following (March 12-19). Spring is here ands it is following the calendar this year. It's nowhere near as warm as March 2012. My high temps will fall short by 20 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 The cold look to the fantasy range GFS has me hoping we don't leaf out too fast in this region. Is anyone buying the cooler trends shown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 The cold look to the fantasy range GFS has me hoping we don't leaf out too fast in this region. Is anyone buying the cooler trends shown? I'd say there's pretty good agreement that we'll pop an -EPO and at least the central part of the continent will get flooded with cold air. SE Ridge will have a say on the progress further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Will have to sit back and see how it plays out. As for now, the potential is increasing but not locked in. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Will have to sit back and see how it plays out. As for now, the potential is increasing but not locked in. Time will tell... A cold shot looks fairly good, but it would be nice if it came with a storm. It would be hilarious if after all the moaning this winter if we ended up with normal snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 A cold shot looks fairly good, but it would be nice if it came with a storm. It would be hilarious if after all the moaning this winter if we ended up with normal snowfall As you know, there is much more to winter than normal snowfall. Even if ORD manages to get 7" more this season and end up with normal snowfall, the winter grade would still be F or D-. A normal climo snowfall season gets a D (because our snow climo is horrible to begin with)...and then lack of snow cover and cold drops it to D- or F. Either way, the moaning would be justified. You make it sound like a normal snowfall season implies that everyone should be happy...with no other considerations. I could be naive...but I will never understand this. This is a forum where many people love winter, and aren't content with "normal". Looks like a good -EPO pattern coming up in 7-10 days. Hopefully it will have some staying power and produce some snow, like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 As you know, there is much more to winter than normal snowfall. Even if ORD manages to get 7" more this season and end up with normal snowfall, the winter grade would still be F or D-. A normal climo snowfall season gets a D (because our snow climo is horrible to begin with)...and then lack of snow cover and cold drops it to D- or F. Either way, the moaning would be justified. You make it sound like a normal snowfall season implies that everyone should be happy...with no other considerations. I could be naive...but I will never understand this. This is a forum where many people love winter, and aren't content with "normal". Looks like a good -EPO pattern coming up in 7-10 days. Hopefully it will have some staying power and produce some snow, like you said. You are preaching to the choir. I mentioned it because there does seem to be a fairly large number who look at snowfall total as a big factor in winter. I personally would grade a winter with below normal snowfall but above average snowcover much higher than a winter with normal snowfall but below normal snowcover. This winter wasn't bad at all for a strong nino. But it was not an enjoyable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 D5-6 threat is gone. Looks pretty bleak for snowfall potential. If that's the case hopefully the cool-down is brief and we get back to some springtime warmth soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png Why not. Late snowfalls help the grass green up faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Some model consistency for a storm of some sort in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Then the GEM has this system, Monday night/ early Tuesday. GFS does too, just a tad further north. Looks like we're in for more wintry weather all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Some model consistency for a storm of some sort in that period. Possibly some flooding potential as well on the warm side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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