bdgwx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Disc, what G2G shear did you have on this? That has to be up close to 200 kts if I'm not mistaken. I got about 160 kts on that scan and others around the same time. The highest ground relative velocity was 125 kts at 3000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I'm late to the thread. AmWx is sort of a secondary site for me. No disrespect intended. Anyway, I chased the Liberal to Dodge City tornado Monday night. Here is my vid, and I hope you all (if anyone's even reading this thread anymore!) enjoy watching it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMEvM-rVA_E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Saw on AMA's Twitter feed that the first Pampa tornado has also been rated EF3. Should be stressed that the Kismet tornado's signature maxed out significantly NE of where it actually produced its EF3 damage, so there's a high likelihood that one was in the EF4+ range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 In a perfect world: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/RTIME/PPF_realtime.php?date=201511171200 Meant to show the concentration of reports more than anything: Had some discussion with Ian about this and it got me thinking. The CIPS PPF analysis is great for showing the concentration of reports, but I also think that it's better for summarizing lower-end events vs. higher-end. It definitely skews a lot of the higher events, especially ones with multiple reports in a small area, and/or several reports from a populated area. (For example, if a marginally severe squall line moves through OKC, you'll probably get a lot of wind damage reports over a small distance) Looking back, I don't think a high risk can be defended, at least not in a practical sense. Just looking at most high risk days since 2010 and the majorty of the high risks issued for tornadoes had 50+ confirmed tornadoes. With that said, I think a case could have been made for a moderate risk for 11/16. This 10% tornado outlook for 11/16 was followed up by another 10% tornado the next day - I don't think you can compare these two events whatsoever, including the atmospheric setup. I do think that 11/17 underperformed based the parameter space, even though it can easily be explained by a lack of discrete cells (mini cells started rotating in Louisiana, but storm mode was too messy) and considerably less impressive mid-level lapse rates. 11/17 has not yet had any reported tornadoes in the 10% outline, whatsoever. (Although I know the Little Rock area had some damage, but I haven't had the ability to closely look at the cause) The 16th went generally as expected. I knew the panhandles would light up, but I was more torn about Kansas. High resolution guidance was excellent and consistent in the hours leading up to the event. Even the HRRR lit up Kansas first and I was tempted to pick the northern target, but it didn't bode well for chase prospects the next day in southern AR/LA. (Which didn't matter, because 11/17 was virtually unchaseable given what verified.) I'm not sure what would have been better for a chaser - getting the somewhat earlier tornadoes in Kansas, or bagging the eastern panhandle wedges. I started in the day in the southeastern panhandle of Texas and didn't have to drift far west to get on the first decent looking supercell. Based on radar representation, I'm a little bit surprised it didn't put down a tornado for a while. I'm talking about the storm that came out of Tulia. I found myself chasing down in the canyon area and had no radar/cell service. Before going back into the canyon, I observed two brief funnel clouds. Just as I came out of the canyon, I was able to catch the brief tornado that the storm put down just east of TX-207. That cluster of storms moved northeast and put down the Pampa tornado shortly after dark. I was on I-40 as the Groom/Pampa II tornado touched down. It went unwarned for several minutes. The initial survey says it touched down at 6:42, but I already saw it in progress by 6:39, so who knows how soon it started. A moot point I suppose, just my account of what took place. I headed east on I-40 and turned on TX-70 to go north and get a better view of the approaching storm. For a short time I had a visual of both tornadoes (Groom to the NW and Pampa to the NE). All of a sudden, there was debris and power lines down on the road. Long story short, there were damaged cars in the vicinity and others with flats. My front passenger tire was losing air, but fortunately a group of three kids (locals who never chased, but thought it would be cool to chase that night...) helped out with a hammer to pound the rim back over the tire and that did the job. I'm not sure if I was more concerned about being stuck in the middle of a tornado outbreak or potentially losing the ability to chase the next day. Definitely an experience and a reminder that chasing at night is not only difficult, but potentially very dangerous. Not to mention, much harder to get good footage, unless you have equipment that's good at night. (or if you get out in front of the storms and can play with shutter speeds) For me, a good chase is about the experience and not necessarily how many pictures or videos you get. Many chasers got some incredible footage, much of which is posted in this thread. I'm still working on a bit of video and a few photographs. I'll get some of those up later. (Mainly pre-tornado) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Saw on AMA's Twitter feed that the first Pampa tornado has also been rated EF3. Should be stressed that the Kismet tornado's signature maxed out significantly NE of where it actually produced its EF3 damage, so there's a high likelihood that one was in the EF4+ range. Where at!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Where at!!!!!! What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 What? EF4+ damage!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 EF4+ damage!!!! That's not what he is saying... He is saying that all 3 of the tornadoes had the potential to produce that sort of damage but they hit nothing at their peak intensities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 The most impressive of nine tornadoes confirmed by DDC: TORNADO 1 RATING: EF-3 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 155 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 51 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 2000 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 0 START DATE: NOV 16 2015 START TIME: 538 PM CST START LOCATION: 4 NE LIBERAL END DATE: NOV 16 2015 END TIME: 656 PM CST END LOCATION: 7.5 NE MONTEZUMA THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS DONE TO A FARM THAT IS LOCATED WEST OF KISMET IN SEWARD COUNTY. THERE WERE NUMEROUS PIVOT IRRIGATION SPRINKLERS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED, ALONG WITH MANY OUT BUILDINGS, POWER POLES, AND TREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 That is likely one of the furthest west tornadoes on record to have a path length >50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackjack123 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 That's not what he is saying... He is saying that all 3 of the tornadoes had the potential to produce that sort of damage but they hit nothing at their peak intensities. That is unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 That is likely one of the furthest west tornadoes on record to have a path length >50 miles. A quick estimate from Ian's research would indicate about 17 tornadoes have tracked >50 miles as far west or further west since 1950. However, some of those are at roughly the same longitude, so it could rank in the top 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 A quick estimate from Ian's research would indicate about 17 tornadoes have tracked >50 miles as far west or further west since 1950. However, some of those are at roughly the same longitude, so it could rank in the top 15. Certainly probably one of the, if not the furthest west during the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Certainly probably one of the, if not the furthest west during the fall. I did some checking and there hasn't been a 50+ mile long tornado this far west this late in the fall. There was an F4 that was pretty far west in Nebraska but it was October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Preliminary tornado reports so far in November 2015 11/1:3 11/2: 5 11/5: 3 11/11: 18 11/15: 3 (California) 11/16: 43 11/17: 11 11/18: 3 total: 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Some amazing graphics in this article. http://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/11/17/november-2015-high-plains-tornado-outbreak-was-rare-and-historic-for-the-region/ Cold season tornadoes vs. November 16 tornado reports Strong tornadoes including and beyond November 16 (11/16-12/31) All November-December long-track tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 The first Pampa tornado debarked trees and collapsed a truss tower, so it as been rated EF3 as well! So the significant tornado count for this outbreak is now three EF3s and and two EF2s if i'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Links to storm surveys and other preliminary information about the plains tornadoes http://kamala.cod.edu/ks/latest.nous43.KGID.html http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGLD/1511172354.nous43.html http://kamala.cod.edu/ks/latest.nous43.KDDC.html http://kamala.cod.edu/tx/latest.nous44.KAMA.html http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KAMA/1511182246.nous44.html I haven't found any further information from the OUN office about the tornado in northwest Oklahoma Dallas/Fort Worth (no red dots on the SPC storm reports map) http://kamala.cod.edu/tx/latest.nous44.KFWD.html Houston/Galveston (no red dots on the SPC storm reports map) http://kamala.cod.edu/tx/latest.nous44.KHGX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Check this out. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10205888396463159&set=o.121467212293&type=3&pnref=story One of the Pampa tornadoes lifted a piece of corn stalk into the updraft of the storm where it became the nucleus of a hailstone. Or a cornstone? Not sure what to call it. Anyone ever seen or heard of anything like this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Does anyone know anything about the tornado in Harper County, OK? I've heard that there may have been some fairly significant damage that took place near Fort Supply, but I haven't heard a thing about surveys in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Does anyone know anything about the tornado in Harper County, OK? I've heard that there may have been some fairly significant damage that took place near Fort Supply, but I haven't heard a thing about surveys in that area. No word from OUN, just the storm report on the SPC page: 0346 5 WNW FORT SUPPLY HARPER OK 3660 9966 FIVE POWERPOLES BROKEN AT THE BASE. SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO IN THE AREA. (OUN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 17 confirmed tornadoes in AMA's CWA from this event, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 Three long-track tornadoes confirmed in northwestern Oklahoma: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 By my count, that's at least 33 confirmed tornadoes from 11/16,17 in AMA's CWA, 9 in DDC's, 1 in OUN's and 6 in GLD's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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