Deck Pic Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/10/capital-weather-gang-2015-2016-winter-outlook-for-washington-d-c-stormy-and-mild-with-below-normal-snow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Great article Matt! Hope you're wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 You are awesome in his research. You are very careful in your forecast and I think you mention the most problematic variables that could make it different! I think you did the right thing - went with the most likely! Great job as usual! Update: Whew! I had major typos! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Well done and looks very realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Good job Matt. I liked the way you tied in the risks regarding snowfall. Specifics like big snow storms (which are statistically uncommon in any given year) and how they can affect the outcome is duly noted. If we beat climo again it won't likely be achieved the same way as last year with an unusually high # of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Quality and fair discussion. I won't read it as a "forecast," per se since you definitely couched it in terms of low confidence, which is very smart this year. That's just a personal thing, though. I definitely think it's a good basis from which to project out. I completely agree that we could have a pretty blah winter if we don't get the timing right and if the Pacific and/or Atlantic don't want to cooperate. However, if we get favorable periods of both, then we should have decent chances for snow since the STJ should be providing plenty of moisture to take advantage of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Excellent article Matt. Good read! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 That's a great job... I was most surprised to see the positive temp variance prediction all the way through Feb, as a lot of folks are going ++Dec, +Jan and then norm to - in Feb, but we'll take what we can get if it, especially if it includes a paste bomb before a warm up! ETA: Also, I hope you're wrong, I don't want to waste my Snowshoe reservations late December on tanning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 1877-78 as an analog? Is that correct or did you mean 100 years later? Thanks as ever for the informative read and the time and effort you put into this. Maybe this is finally the year I buy a snowblower and not feel guilty if it rains all year as a consequence. I can blame elnino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 1877-78 as an analog? Is that correct or did you mean 100 years later? Thanks as ever for the informative read and the time and effort you put into this. Maybe this is finally the year I buy a snowblower and not feel guilty if it rains all year as a consequence. I can blame elnino. 1877-78 is considered a super nino so figured he must have meant that. At least that was my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 1877-78 as an analog? Is that correct or did you mean 100 years later? Thanks as ever for the informative read and the time and effort you put into this. Maybe this is finally the year I buy a snowblower and not feel guilty if it rains all year as a consequence. I can blame elnino. According to this paper (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2336/full) 1877-78 was a strong El Nino but idk what the snowfall totals were (don't have data back that far). Most (but not all) of the pre-1950 ones listed there as strong El Ninos suck for snow though (at least in Baltimore). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 http://wtop.com/weather/2015/11/winter-forecast-winter-will-snowier-last/ HAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 http://wtop.com/weather/2015/11/winter-forecast-winter-will-snowier-last/ HAHA lol I was going to post the same thing - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Matt, very impressed with your presentation on the video. Nicely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I'll trust Matts outlook before many others. Not the greatest outlook for us but it is more based in reality than many out there. Lets see if we luckbox into a surprise win and if not then so be it. Nice read, Matt. Thanks for doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 According to this paper (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2336/full) 1877-78 was a strong El Nino but idk what the snowfall totals were (don't have data back that far). Most (but not all) of the pre-1950 ones listed there as strong El Ninos suck for snow though (at least in Baltimore). I also could not immediately find a snow total for the mid-Atlantic region in 1877-78. However, I found a mention of 8.1 inches that season for New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 Thanks for the kind words, everyone. That's a great job... I was most surprised to see the positive temp variance prediction all the way through Feb, as a lot of folks are going ++Dec, +Jan and then norm to - in Feb, but we'll take what we can get if it, especially if it includes a paste bomb before a warm up! ETA: Also, I hope you're wrong, I don't want to waste my Snowshoe reservations late December on tanning... I could see Feb being below, especially if we get an extended -AO period..I'm not really banking on the PAC to be very helpful...at best not hostile, but I could be wrong 1877-78 as an analog? Is that correct or did you mean 100 years later? Thanks as ever for the informative read and the time and effort you put into this. Maybe this is finally the year I buy a snowblower and not feel guilty if it rains all year as a consequence. I can blame elnino. Yes, 1877. Take reconstructed data with a grain of salt, but likely a +PDO/Strong Nino.....There were some other factors that were attractive too, but I didn't rely heavily on any of my analogs I also could not immediately find a snow total for the mid-Atlantic region in 1877-78. However, I found a mention of 8.1 inches that season for New York City. I used the NYC figure to guestimate snow for DC...of course that is super dangerous..could be anything...I figured maybe 10", but weighted it very little other than drawing the conclusion that it likely wasn't a snowy winter for the mid atl and northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 ginx/steve posted this on Twitter (dec 31 1877).. looks like a good track. DC records look weird compared to.. no precip on 31st but 1.81 on 30th?.. too warm for a big dump either way. may also be the reanalysis is wrong. http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=20cr&area=na&yyyy=1877&mm=12&dd=30&run=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Actually nix that the storm passes on the 30th I can't read. Maybe a good sign how much that winter sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 I was curious so I looked up 1877-78 since I know nothing about it. I have no snow data but... good lord, what a torch for BWI/Baltimore: Dec. was tied for 5th hottest (+7.1) Jan. was +2 Feb. was +4.6 Mar. was tied for 10th hottest (+5.6) DJF tied for 14th hottest I have a feeling this might be the hottest DJFM period ever but I'd have to do some fiddling around with the spreadsheet. This is an old site, but it calls 1877-78 Minnesota's "year without a winter" and compares it with 1997-98, so maybe the torch was nationwide: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/wint77_78.html Edit: Its 8th hottest DJFM- 1931-32 takes the top prize, followed by 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Here's a loop from that event linked above in 1877/1878. Looks like 30s and/or 40s and rain--maybe some snow but DC/Balt only had lows of 35 on the 30th. No high in best spot but nice 500/sfc. Would probably be painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Here's a loop from that event linked above in 1877/1878. Looks like 30s and/or 40s and rain--maybe some snow but DC/Balt only had lows of 35 on the 30th. No high in best spot but nice 500/sfc. Would probably be painful. 0.67" on 1/4/1878 with a 36/22 temp spread and the following mins are very cold, which might indicate snowcover (low of 0 on the 8th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 0.67" on 1/4/1878 with a 36/22 temp spread and the following mins are very cold, which might indicate snowcover (low of 0 on the 8th).So at least it can snow. Except temps are probably warmer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This winter will bust a lot of forecasts either way. All it will take is one really ****ty pattern or one really good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This winter will bust a lot of forecasts either way. All it will take is one really ****ty pattern or one really good storm. Solid effort: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Solid effort: OMG please make this a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 0.67" on 1/4/1878 with a 36/22 temp spread and the following mins are very cold, which might indicate snowcover (low of 0 on the 8th). There was also 1.26 inches of precipitation in DC in 1878 on 1/31-2/1, with a temperature range of 26-39. Perhaps a mix of rain and snow. Aside from that storm, the one Ian mentioned, and the one you mentioned, looks like little likelihood of any significant snow that winter, given the warm temperatures. Of course, that was also true of 1982-83 -- only three snowstorms and yet 27.6 inches of snow at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Nice read, Matt. Good vid too. P.S. I want the B&W bun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 10, 2015 Author Share Posted November 10, 2015 I was curious so I looked up 1877-78 since I know nothing about it. I have no snow data but... good lord, what a torch for BWI/Baltimore: Dec. was tied for 5th hottest (+7.1) Jan. was +2 Feb. was +4.6 Mar. was tied for 10th hottest (+5.6) DJF tied for 14th hottest I have a feeling this might be the hottest DJFM period ever but I'd have to do some fiddling around with the spreadsheet. This is an old site, but it calls 1877-78 Minnesota's "year without a winter" and compares it with 1997-98, so maybe the torch was nationwide: http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/wint77_78.html Edit: Its 8th hottest DJFM- 1931-32 takes the top prize, followed by 2011-12. hmmmm....DJF wasn't that much of a blowtorch for DC...+0.2 based on 81-2010 norms so probably like a +2 to +3 once I filter it through my super duper DCA translator (plus you can look at max/min anomalies and get a sense)...Kind of curious if the new sensor at DCA will cool things down a bit this winter...I kind of doubt it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Heh, just got your article forwarded to me by my brother, Matt, with a note asking for what I thought. I said, "whatever Matt says, you can pretty much hang your hat on that". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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