Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow on the mean! Are the all clustered together? Or are there big misses and big hits? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Honestly, there are a few to the east that skew the mean, but it looks absolutely perfect for most of us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I should have my new camera for the weekend, I'll set up a streaming link as well. I also have lots of hot chocolate and stuff to be ready.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I should have my new camera for the weekend, I'll set up a streaming link as well. I also have lots of hot chocolate and stuff to be ready.... You misspelled alcohol, buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I should have my new camera for the weekend, I'll set up a streaming link as well. I also have lots of hot chocolate and stuff to be ready.... You misspelled alcohol, buddy. i think you're in the wrong room fella! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What's in the hot chocolate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't understand the para model runs (like what are they compare to ensembles?) but the 12z GFS para is pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I have to say, WGAL 8 has addressed the potential in probably the most responsible way for the "threat" being on the other side of the week. Very well done. I am incredibly interested to see if Weather World makes reference on tonight's broadcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I have to say, WGAL 8 has addressed the potential in probably the most responsible way for the "threat" being on the other side of the week.Very well done. I am incredibly interested to see if Weather World makes reference on tonight's broadcast. Thanks! We're always careful to let the public know of the threat, but not pin down amounts until we're pretty confident. No sense in throwing out amounts and going "but it's not a forecast", or posting snow maps this early. The energy hasn't been fully analyzed by the sonde network yet! Still some changes to come, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 If you take a look at 700 mb on the UKMET, Canadian, GFS and Euro OP...they all have a trailing connection the down to the Caribbean event as the storm is winding up off Delmarva and cranking out to sea. That's a hallmark of a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Thus far the 18z GFS has no major changes. If anything, it's about 4 hours slower, so school is probably a bet for Friday. Start time looks to be about 3-6pm from Rt. 22 and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Question: I know everyone is thinking that something could go downhill since this has happened in the past many times, but what are the thoughts of this getting even better? Are we in a position to rival 96 in terms of snow amounts? I am in Lancaster county and I still remember I believe Matt saying we will be measuring this with a yardstick. Would love to hear that again. We have an incredible amount of energy and warmth nearby in the Atlantic which I know could be a blessing and a curse. I just wanted to see what others thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What's in the hot chocolate? baileys...of course.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If you take a look at 700 mb on the UKMET, Canadian, GFS and Euro OP...they all have a trailing connection the down to the Caribbean event as the storm is winding up off Delmarva and cranking out to sea. That's a hallmark of a big one. also read that the Euro showed a potential stall right at the delmarva once it closes off/captures.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z drops the hammer big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z GFS has a beautiful banana high stretched from Eastern Canada flanking the western edge of the storm all the way down to Corpus Christi, TX. In eastern Canada it's a 1036 mb strength...really nice to see. One concern is that it's going to have a lot of folks along ans east of I-95 mixing. Even Lancaster and Berks County probably go all sleet for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Holy crap. The MD/PA border is getting obliterated on the run. Cashtown_Coop jackpot again? This is freaking insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Eastern 2/3rds of PA have 20-24". Winner.EDIT: Despite the brief sleet issue, the temps crash once the low really cranks and parts of eastern PA are surpassing '96 snowfall totals. Could lolipop amounts ~40" Lebanon/Berks/Lancaster/York county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Question: I know everyone is thinking that something could go downhill since this has happened in the past many times, but what are the thoughts of this getting even better? Are we in a position to rival 96 in terms of snow amounts? I am in Lancaster county and I still remember I believe Matt saying we will be measuring this with a yardstick. Would love to hear that again. We have an incredible amount of energy and warmth nearby in the Atlantic which I know could be a blessing and a curse. I just wanted to see what others thought. I think the postitves/takeaways from the last 24 hours is the strong consensus/low spread in plausible outcomes..... theres gonna be a storm. At 4 days out....thats a BIG takeway. Most of us being sensible weenies (outside of taggers), know thats all we can ask for at this juncture. Thats why I'm giddy. WAY to early for IMBY forcasting to start. That 45" lollipop the euro showed this afternoon in eastern WVA could be in VA, to VT by gametime. Its gonna snow...and snow lots....now we figure out exactly where. Tomorrow night when the shortwave hits the West coast and better data sampling becomes available...things will start coming into focus. At 46...i've seen this all too often, and while thats not a very meteorologically savvy answer...its the best one I got. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Eastern 2/3 of Pennsylvania? Did I read that correct? That's roughly I-99 and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Going to be a lot of tired weenies (myself) by the end of the weekend. I've already informed my wife she's a weather widow for several days. She just doesn't understand the addiction... Hoping for a monster for all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 All of Pa is destroyed on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Eastern 2/3 of Pennsylvania? Did I read that correct? That's roughly I-99 and east? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If you take a look at 700 mb on the UKMET, Canadian, GFS and Euro OP...they all have a trailing connection the down to the Caribbean event as the storm is winding up off Delmarva and cranking out to sea. That's a hallmark of a big one. Another hallmark is the 850mb zonal wind anomalies are a tremendous -6 to -8 standard deviations per the Euro (GFS is similar too). That kind of an easterly fetch off of the Atlantic alone would add solid support to the very high snow amounts that have been being put out on the models. I think Feb 4-6, 2010 had something to the tune of -4 to -6. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Another hallmark is the 850mb zonal wind anomalies are a tremendous -6 to -8 standard deviations per the Euro (GFS is similar too). That kind of an easterly fetch off of the Atlantic alone would add solid support to the very high snow amounts that have been being put out on the models. I think Feb 4-6, 2010 had something to the tune of -4 to -6. Crazy. Both Dec 2009 and Feb 4-6, 2010 did. Don't wait this to be any further west, or mixing for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What's in the hot chocolate? you missed the stuff part. I just blasted a kid about issuing forecasts he knows nothing about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ok, I'm starting to get a little excited. Can't ever remember this many consecutive runs of every major model showing a MECS/HECS this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 All of Pa is destroyed on this run Can we lock it in...lol! That's quote the pretty map! Too bad it's Monday night and not Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Just silly. It's managed to pique my interest from 1,500 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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