pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Closes off at 500mb in the perfect spot, 500 low tracks south of DC which is excellent for C PA. This looks great. NCEP site is slow, so I won't bother posting images. Is it closed off at 700? can see that on Ttidbits... Im stuck at 114 the suspense is killing me. Hearng in Mid atlantic, that Northern MD is 30+...and still snowing. O M G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like 20" line for snow runs all the way to I-80. Huge crush job. Everybody wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 27" max in York County...absolutely perfect run. Even JamieO gets close to double digits. Pitt still left with a 4-6" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like 20" line for snow runs all the way to I-80. Huge crush job. Everybody wins. although it doesnt QUITE meet your criteria for a big storm.... I think you approve (just ribbin....appreciate your insight). Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Legit blizzard, 25"+ from Turnpike down through Dulles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 At the doctor for a physical - my dr is goina be confused why I'm saluting her! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Legit blizzard, 25"+ from Turnpike down through Dulles.Thanks for the PBP! Timing still late Friday night start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Things should really solidify by Wednesday's 12z model suite. The short wave that's responsible will be onshore in the Pacific Northwest by then, and radiosondes should be ingesting data from the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm staying cautious as we've been fooked before, but some beach these runs make my heart stop. thats a solid 2' here in Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 IMO, the 12z / 18z suite Wednesday is when we know whether this is for real or not. Everything will be onshore and in the denser observation network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This could be the real deal. I want to see the ECM trend a little stronger with the H5 low just so it gives the GFS and CMC some credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 My God! Close to 30 inches imby! Guess it's time to open the bed and blizzard lol! I will probably be drifted in for a week down here with all the open fields! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 question for the mets. What confidence does the GFS give you at T-110 hrs till liftoff? does this still hold much weight in comparison to the King (in regards to it being so consistant. Do you like how the evolution is shown based on what your looking at. Based on the GFS, any caution flags? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Friday should be an interesting trip home. Unless Uncle Tom Wolfe lets the State out early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The 12z GFS closes off the 500 hPa low a bit earlier and farther west than the 06z run. This allows for the surface low to intensify sooner along the coastal baroclinic zone. The system then begins to occlude as it reaches peak intensity just east of the Delmarva peninsula, placing much of central PA in the region favorable for mesoscale banding. If the system occludes a bit later, it may stall off the coast of New England and place south central PA in the banding region for a shorter amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This forum needs the sign you see at Hersheypark and King's Dominion where they suggest you NOT ride the roller coaster if you have a bad heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Unless Uncle Tom Wolfe lets the State out early I see what you did there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 question for the mets. What confidence does the GFS give you at T-110 hrs till liftoff? does this still hold much wait in comparison to the King (in regards to it being so consistant. Do you like how the evolution is shown based on what your looking at. Based on the GFS, any caution flags? Nut Well if you lock in the GFS at 100+ hours, you may need several of these to get through the week... But seriously, as others have mentioned, I think we will need to wait until the shortwave ridge is fully sampled by the radiosonde network before becoming too confident in model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well if you lock in the GFS at 100+ hours, you may need several of these to get through the week... 20160118_113631.jpg But seriously, as others have mentioned, I think we will need to wait until the shortwave ridge is fully sampled by the radiosonde network before becoming too confident in model guidance. I get that (and will likely be partaking in something while staring at the puter in the coming days)...and understood. I guess my question is really more of a "what model has the best 5 day skill scores" (knowing that we are still 1+ days from landfall of the shortwave). I know the "old" GFS overamped....the "old" King held energy back in the SW...but if I read correctly, the updates have fixed these biases...no? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I get that (and will likely be partaking in something while staring at the puter in the coming days)...and understood. I guess my question is really more of a "what model has the best 5 day skill scores" (knowing that we are still 1+ days from landfall of the shortwave). I know the "old" GFS overamped....the "old" King held energy back in the SW...but if I read correctly, the updates have fixed these biases...no? Nut For the northern hemisphere, the Euro has higher skill at day 5 than the rest of the guidance. I'm not sure about specific biases that come into play during east coat cyclogenesis though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The GEM is taking warmer temperatures into account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 For the northern hemisphere, the Euro has higher skill at day 5 than the rest of the guidance. I'm not sure about specific biases that come into play during east coat cyclogenesis though. thank you. I've seen the skill scores posted, but do not know where ya'll get em... will be interessting with the new upgrades to see if the GFS can bridge the gap. The lower the anomaly score...the better the verification...correct? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS i'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z UKMET would also be a crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ugh. Margusity has busted out his ridiculous Big Daddy hat. This is doomed to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ugh. Margusity has busted out his ridiculous Big Daddy hat. This is doomed to fail. voodo hex hat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro is much better run than 0z. 0.25+ for a lot at 126. 129 0.5+ around MDT and back toward the southern portion of I99. 132-135 still moderate to heavy snow for all. 0.5 lasts until 135. 138-144 precipitation gradually tapers off as the system moves away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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