Wmsptwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 S and S is whipping people into a frenzy already over a day 5 to 6 storm. Not sure why people take that page seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 6z GFS total snowfall thru 168 hrs. http://www.instantwe...ASNOWI&hour=168Thru entire runhttp://www.instantwe...ASNOWI&hour=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is gonna be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is gonna be a long week. I agree, i don't see much work getting done either. what is your take on the latest model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z EPS ensemble mean bumped up snow totals to 10-12 inches for the LSV. The 6z GFS that was just posted above shows almost 2 Feet in the LSV. The 6z GEFS ensemble mean also bumped snow totals higher than 0z, & looks similar the the EPS mean at around 10-12 inches for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I agree, i don't see much work getting done either. what is your take on the latest model runs. I think the setup is classic for a pummeling right now for the LSV and areas up to the turnpike. The H5 orientation is one that screams MECS or even HECS for the MA with some serious moisture being advected into a rapidly developing low pressure. The snow maps now are pretty to look at, don't get me wrong, but the algorithms in place for each site are different and don't take into consideration the mesoscale properties that normally depict the axis of heaviest snowfall. The vort pass on the GFS and Euro would be more inclined to crush the LSV down into MD and NoVa, but that doesn't mean areas to the north can't get into the big snows. Still a lot to get through before we can start locking in who gets it worst and any other intricate features. Bottom line for now is there is the potential for one hell of a disruptive snow storm for many in this subforum and up and down the east coast. Hope that helps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I think the setup is classic for a pummeling right now for the LSV and areas up to the turnpike. The H5 orientation is one that screams MECS or even HECS for the MA with some serious moisture being advected into a rapidly developing low pressure. The snow maps now are pretty to look at, don't get me wrong, but the algorithms in place for each site are different and don't take into consideration the mesoscale properties that normally depict the axis of heaviest snowfall. The vort pass on the GFS and Euro would be more inclined to crush the LSV down into MD and NoVa, but that doesn't mean areas to the north can't get into the big snows. Still a lot to get through before we can start locking in who gets it worst and any other intricate features. Bottom line for now is there is the potential for one hell of a disruptive snow storm for many in this subforum and up and down the east coast. Hope that helps!! Thanks for your insights, are you concerned that this can still slide off to our south and ends up being a scraper for the LSV? Any concerns of a kicker in the PAC that would move this system right along and not allow it to blow up? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Thanks for your insights, are you concerned that this can still slide off to our south and ends up being a scraper for the LSV? Any concerns of a kicker in the PAC that would move this system right along and not allow it to blow up? Thanks! At this point I'm not too concerned. Still 4 days away from anything, so 500mb details can change and if they do, supression is possible, but I don't think it's so supressed the area sees nothing. That would take some serious changes upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 6z GFS total snowfall thru 168 hrs. http://www.instantwe...ASNOWI&hour=168 Thru entire run http://www.instantwe...ASNOWI&hour=384 Holy mother of god....if only that verified!! I'm keeping a lid on my excitement, but as the GFS found the storm first, and has been lockstep in its evolution.... I'm pullin for ya buddy. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 At this point I'm not too concerned. Still 4 days away from anything, so 500mb details can change and if they do, supression is possible, but I don't think it's so supressed the area sees nothing. That would take some serious changes upstairs. All you red taggers (and Orange...I guess ...thanks in advance for the insight. Despite what insane maps are being posted from the GFS, I think most of us are just looking for a solid hit....in hopes of a crush job. Suppression/out to sea are my worries for this one. Looking forward to the next few on hour model runs. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Interesting developments overnight, especially regarding that 00z GFS run. That's about as good as it gets in terms of H5 placement/evolution around here. When there are 6+" snow totals all the way back toward the coast, the word "historic" definitely comes into play. That H5 evolution was absolutely perfect for a monster snowstorm. I'm very leery though after looking at the 00z Euro ensemble members...some suppressed solutions in there that give PA very little. C PA's biggest bust potential lies in suppression rather than a cutter, I believe, in this circumstance. Right now, all models have majority hits for our region. Finessing the low track can be done on Wednesday...right now we want to see very little adjustments in the H5 track leading up to mid-week. By Wednesday, if it shows hits, I think we can definitely get excited since the energy will have been well sampled. For those disappointed in the Euro track last night...still some hope. The ensemble mean is definitely more of a hit from the NW burbs of I-95 and into our region...some quality tracks in there, but also some suppressed ones too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Interesting developments overnight, especially regarding that 00z GFS run. That's about as good as it gets in terms of H5 placement/evolution around here. When there are 6+" snow totals all the way back toward the coast, the word "historic" definitely comes into play. That H5 evolution was absolutely perfect for a monster snowstorm. I'm very leery though after looking at the 00z Euro ensemble members...some suppressed solutions in there that give PA very little. C PA's biggest bust potential lies in suppression rather than a cutter, I believe, in this circumstance. Right now, all models have majority hits for our region. Finessing the low track can be done on Wednesday...right now we want to see very little adjustments in the H5 track leading up to mid-week. By Wednesday, if it shows hits, I think we can definitely get excited since the energy will have been well sampled. For those disappointed in the Euro track last night...still some hope. The ensemble mean is definitely more of a hit from the NW burbs of I-95 and into our region...some quality tracks in there, but also some suppressed ones too. Thanks for the update Matt. Read in another forum that there were (as you stated) more hits or NW (I'm lumping them into the same camp as they are good for our area) then there were SE ticks. In my eyes I'm looking at the Euro ensemble clusters and the movement therof to see where this bad boy is going to end up. All the while....I'll continue to hug the GFS body and soul.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So we won't get 39" snow after all? I don't want any then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So we won't get 39" snow after all? I don't want any then! As much as the GFS has been rock solid....its still the GFS. I think it fair to say were not tossing anything....let alone 25" and over Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 06z Para GFS is a winner for everyone. Even Wilkes-Barre / Williamsport gets double digit snow. LSV buried, snow totals would challenge '96 in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 06z Para GFS is a winner for everyone. Even Wilkes-Barre / Williamsport gets double digit snow. LSV buried, snow totals would challenge '96 in some spots. You lost me at 6z and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Probably a dumb question but what is considered LSV? I am from Danville and we always considered ourselves middle. Are there defined boundaries that everyone uses? Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Probably a dumb question but what is considered LSV? I am from Danville and we always considered ourselves middle. Are there defined boundaries that everyone uses? Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk LSV= Lower Susquehanna Valley, or South Central. You'd be considered either true central pa or North Central, but that is a guess on my part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Probably a dumb question but what is considered LSV? I am from Danville and we always considered ourselves middle. Are there defined boundaries that everyone uses? Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk I've always used Selinsgrove as my demarkation point...south of there, to me, is the LSV to the MD border. West border would be to Franklin Co...east of there to Chester Co. Of course, that's just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 06z Para GFS is a winner for everyone. Even Wilkes-Barre / Williamsport gets double digit snow. LSV buried, snow totals would challenge '96 in some spots. Matt, can you provide a link for this? I know it's on the MAG page, but not sure how to access it from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Probably a dumb question but what is considered LSV? I am from Danville and we always considered ourselves middle. Are there defined boundaries that everyone uses? Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk I used to work for PennDOT and this is how they sub divide the state. Always has worked for me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj88 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Thanks all! Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You lost me at 6z and GFS. Now....be nice.... He's a really smart guy..... but a weenie in training... Anxious for the 12z's and here's to good trends. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Last Update: Mon Jan 18 15:40:00 2016 GMT NWS TOC Operational Status MessageNo current message NCEP Operational Status Message Mon Jan 18 15:09:38 2016 GMTNOUS42 KWNO 181508ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1507Z MON JAN 18 2016 THE 12Z NCEP MODEL SUITE IS RUNNING ON-TIME... OREILLY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I've always used Selinsgrove as my demarkation point...south of there, to me, is the LSV to the MD border. West border would be to Franklin Co...east of there to Chester Co. Of course, that's just my 2 cents. lol so many distinctions I always considered Franklin and Cumberland counties to be a part of the Cumberland Valley. I'd probably consider Franklin, Cumberland and most of Adams counties to be Cumberland Valley. LSV to me has always been Dauphin, Eastern Perry, York, Eastern Adams, Western Lancaster, Eastern Lebanon counties. Further to the north I would probably just classify as Middle Susquehanna Valley or Coal Country. Further to the west is probably Central Pennsylvania. I grew up in Huntingdon county which is directly south of CENTRE county and because of that, I never once considered Harrisburg, York, Lancaster as Central Pennsylvania lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 lol so many distinctions I always considered Franklin and Cumberland counties to be a part of the Cumberland Valley. I'd probably consider Franklin, Cumberland and most of Adams counties to be Cumberland Valley. LSV to me has always been Dauphin, Eastern Perry, York, Eastern Adams, Western Lancaster, Eastern Lebanon counties. Further to the north I would probably just classify as Middle Susquehanna Valley or Coal Country. Further to the west is probably Central Pennsylvania. I grew up in Huntingdon county which is directly south of CENTRE county and because of that, I never once considered Harrisburg, York, Lancaster as Central Pennsylvania lol I say we all just get smoked for once....and not have to worry about it. As the 12z's start to roll....I'm nervous like in college when I wasnt sure if I studied enough for the test. Lets keep perspective real gang. What were seeing still is a long shot from reality...hopefully the trends continue. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 lol so many distinctions I always considered Franklin and Cumberland counties to be a part of the Cumberland Valley. I'd probably consider Franklin, Cumberland and most of Adams counties to be Cumberland Valley. LSV to me has always been Dauphin, Eastern Perry, York, Eastern Adams, Western Lancaster, Eastern Lebanon counties. Further to the north I would probably just classify as Middle Susquehanna Valley or Coal Country. Further to the west is probably Central Pennsylvania. I grew up in Huntingdon county which is directly south of CENTRE county and because of that, I never once considered Harrisburg, York, Lancaster as Central Pennsylvania lol Many years ago, it was probably eastern weather forum then, i learned quick i wasn't in CPA, i was in SCPA (south Central) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 No changes that I can see on the 12z GFS thus far. Surface, mid and upper levels look the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 c'monnnnnnn GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Closes off at 500mb in the perfect spot, 500 low tracks south of DC which is excellent for C PA. This looks great. NCEP site is slow, so I won't bother posting images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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